Sunday Service plays

[Volmania]

Lets start posting all the plays under one thread, unless thats too much of a hassle.

thanks and good luck to everyone.

[Volmania]

Larry Ness
COMP

Game: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays Jul 22 2007 1:05PM

Prediction: over

Reason: The first two games of this series have been low-scoring games with Seattle winning 4-2 on Friday and Toronto taking Saturday's game, 1-0. Despite two 'name' pitchers on the mound today, Felix Hernandez for Seattle and Roy Halladay for Toronto, look for this game to go over the total. Halladay (10-4, 4.46 ERA) is looking for his fourth straight victory at Rogers Centre, where he's 6-1 with a 3.73 ERA. However, he has not fared well recently, going 1-2 with a 5.32 ERA in his last four starts overall. His recent downturn began on June 30 when he allowed three runs and 10 hits in six innings of an 8-3 loss in Seattle. Halladay is 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA and .316 opponent batting average in three career home starts against the Mariners. After dominating while winning his first two road starts this season, Felix Hernandez (6-5, 3.71) failed to get a victory away from Seattle for more than a month. In four straight road starts from May 30-July 2, he was 0-2 with a 5.54 ERA and .324 opponent batting average. In his last road start on July 7, Hernandez gave up two hits over eight innings, walked two and struck out two in Seattle's 4-0 win in Oakland but as everyone knows, the A's are really struggling right now. The total is a little low and I'll play the over.

[PlayMaker]

Big Al's American League B-L-O-W-O-U-T Winner!
2007 World Series of Handicapping Champ Al McMordie CRUSHED the Books with his National League Blowout Winner on Saturday, as Atlanta SLAUGHTERED St Louis 14-6. If you enjoyed that EASY WINNER, then you'll LOVE Sunday's American League B-L-O-W-O-U-T. This game will be LOCKED UP EARLY. Don't miss it!
Price: $15.00

CLEVELAND INDIANS

[Thor]

Northcoast comp plays
#9 3* under KC/Detroit Bannister/Robertson (Scott Spreitzer)
#4 4* Milwaukee w/Vargas/Zito (Triple Crown Sports)

[PlayMaker]

Big Al's Super Totals Winner (65% Here This Year).
$100,000 World Series of Handicapping Champ Al McMordie cashed his NL Blowout Winner on Saturday with the Atlanta Braves (14-6 Winner), and has a Super Totals play in an EARLY GAME in the National League on this Sunday. Big Al's CASHED AN INCREDIBLE 65% of his Over/Under plays here this season, so don't miss this AWESOME WINNER. Go get it.


REDS/MARLINS UNDER

[PlayMaker]

Scott Spreitzer's 26-2, 93% Diamond Dominator GOM! -- 7-0, 100% Run!
I'm laying the price with the Brewers on Sunday. To say Barry Zito regrets his off-season decision to travel across the bay may be the understatement of the year. Zito could do no wrong with the Oakland A's. Since signing with the Giants he has done very little right. He was absolutely rocked in his only start against Milwaukee this season and the lefty has put up bad daytime and road numbers. Zito owns a 5.43 ERA & 1.53 WHIP in 11 away outings as a Giant, and the team is just 1-6 in his last seven starts overall. His ERA during the current down-swing is a hefty 6.27! SFO is 19-31 against winning teams in 2007, they're 12-19 in day action, and 4-10 as a road dog in this price range. Milwaukee counters with Claudio Vargas. The Brewers are a perfect 9-0 when he starts at Miller Park this season. They're also 5-0 with Vargas when the opposition throws a southpaw, 8-1 as a fave, and 4-1 in day games. That's a combined, 26-2 play-on situation. It's just a horrible spot for the Giants and a great one for Milwaukee. We'll back the Brewers to avoid the weekend sweep with a win today. Milwaukee is our Diamond Dominator GOM. Thanks! GL! Scott.

[PlayMaker]

Scott Spreitzer's American League Game of the Week!
I'm laying the price with the Indians on Sunday night. The Tribe are 46-25 as a favorite this season and should have little trouble adding to the win column against Robinson Tejada. The Texas righty has put up very bad numbers in day action and in home games. The Rangers are 3-6 in his nine home starts and he's been popped for a 6.33 ERA & 1.70 WHIP. Tejada has been absolutely miserable in his last seven starts, overall, with a 7.36 ERA & 2.15 WHIP. His team has won just 30 of 76 chances as an underdog this season and they're 28-40 in night games. Cleveland will counter with Paul Byrd, who's been masterful away from the Jake. Byrd has made eight road starts where he owns a 1.19 WHIP & 3.67 ERA. With the way Cleveland knocks around righties, we'll back the Tribe on Sunday night. The Indians are the play. Thanks! GL! Scott.

[PlayMaker]

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-MLB (2-0 this week!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the LA Angels at 2:10 ET. Al Saunders didn't make his first start for the Angels last year until after the All Star break but did an excellent job, as the Angels went 10-2 in his starts. He began this year in the rotation with Colon on the DL and made three April starts, going 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA (team was 2-1). When Colon returned, Saunders was back in Triple-A. In June, he was re-called two different times (6/2 and 6/22) for 'spot' starts and each time produced. He went six innings in both outings with the Angels winning each time. That makes him 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA in five starts (team is 4-1). He's shown an uncanny ability to come through in "the bigs" when called upon. Minnesota will counter with Matt Garza (1-1, 0.00), who is making his fourth appearance and third start of the season. He is coming off an outstanding outing Tuesday, when he gave up just one unearned run in seven innings, but was out-pitched by Detroit's Nate Robertson in a 1-0 loss. While Garza has been great in limited action this year, I well remember his nine starts last year when he went 3-6 with a 5.76 ERA. Despite some recent struggles, the Angels are still 43-29 vs right-handers this year, averaging 4.9 RPG, while the Twins are sub-500 vs left-handers, at 13-15 (minus-$500). LA avoided a sweep at Tampa on Thursday behind Escobar and will do the same here behind the ever-reliable Saunders. Better yet, we're taking a small price. Oddsmaker's Error on the LA Angels.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 15* Pitching Mismatch of the Week (100th this season / 74-25 Y-T-D!)
My 15* play is on the Mil Brewers at 2:05 ET. I've lost with the Brewers each of the last two days but I am certainly not 'chasing' here. This game is truly a pitching mismatch, as long as one looks only at the "numbers" and NOT the names on the back of the jerseys. Barry Zito may be the $126 million man but prior to his excellent effort last Tuesday at Wrigley where he went seven innings (allowing just five hits and one ER) in a 4-2 win, he had gone 0-4 in a six-start stretch (team was 0-6) with a 7.42 ERA! This year, the Giants are just 8-11 in his starts (minus-$273). He doesn't match up well vs the Milwaukee lineup (on June 20 allowed six ERs in four innings at Miller Park), as the Brewers are 14-7 vs left-handers here at Miller Park plus 13-6 overall in day games at home. Like Zito, Milwaukee's Claudio Vargas started last Tuesday as well, as the Brewers edged the D'backs, 3-2. So what else is new? Milwaukee is 13-3 (plus-$1.074) in Vargas' starts this year, the third-best mark among starters in '07. In nine home starts, Vargas is 5-0 with the team going a perfect 9-0! Despite two straight wins against Milwaukee righties Suppan and Bush, one can't ignore San Fran's sad 28-40 (minus-$1,310) mark vs right-handers this year, including 13-22 on the road. Bonds is 0-for-6 in the first two games of this series (may not play here) and note that the Giants haven't swept a three-game series on the road since April 24-26 at Dodger Stadium, while the Brewers have not been swept at Miller Park since September 1-3 by Florida. Pitching Mismatch of the Week 15* Mil Brewers.