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Michael Cannon MLB
Friday's Plays:
5 Dime –
INDIANS (With Hughes and Carmona as listed pitchers)
Take the Indians as the home chalk tonight over the Yankees.
I know New York has been pounding the ball recently, but tonight they’re going against one of the better pitchers in the American League.
Fausto Carmona has pitched great his last three starts but has received little run support. He’s just 1-2 despite a sparkling 1.23 ERA over that span.
The right-hander should get some backing from his offense against New York starter Phil Hughes.
The Yankee rookie is 1-1 on the year with a 5.87 ERA in three games. He was touched for six runs in just 4 2-3 innings his last time out and didn’t get a decision as the Yankees stormed back to throttle the Royals, 16-8.
If Hughes pitches like that again tonight I guarantee you he’ll get the loss because Carmona isn’t going to get shelled.
Take Cleveland as they grab the home win.
PIRATES (With Morris and Ortiz as listed pitchers)
Take the Pirates for the road win tonight over the Giants.
I know the Bucos are playing terrible right now, but newly acquired Matt Morris should give them a lift tonight against his former team.
The right-hander made no secret his desire to get out of San Francisco and I like him to back it up with a solid outing tonight.
The Giants aren’t world-beaters themselves and they will send Russ Ortiz to the mound. The right-hander has lost a lot of velocity on his fastball and is nothing more than a fringe starter at best.
He hasn’t pitched since June 4 and he’s only getting the start because Noah Lowry has tightness in his forearm.
Take the Pirates as they grab the road win.
Bobby "Fitz" Fitzgerald
Canadian Football League Friday August 10th
Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Toronto Argonauts
Friday, August 10 - 7:30 PM
Line: Saskatchewan -3
Game Notes:
Kent Austin leads the Green Riders against his old mates and now new foes. His ex-employers have struggled and his replacement Steve Burratto’s offense has failed to find a rhythm in Michael Bishop’s absence.
The leagues worst offence in recent weeks takes on the leagues best defence. The struggling Argo tackles will have a tough time handling the blitz pressure of Reggie Hunt, Fred Perry, and Kitwana Jones. Saskatchewan cast-offs Dominick Dorsey and Rocky Butler will have to both use their legs to keep the offence moving and out of second and long situations that Richie Hall’s defence thrives upon.
Points will be at a premium as the 2 best defences do battle. I think with added motivation to make a believer out of Saskatchewan GM Eric Tillman they both have big games in double blue.
Michael Fletcher’s energy and speed will be called upon to spy Joseph and insure he doesn’t beat the Argos with his legs when plays break down. A key match up will be the one on one battle between Jordan Younger and Matt Dominguez. Younger likes to bully smaller receivers which wont work against the physical Dominguez.
Just when things seemed to be unraveling after a dream start to Kent Austin’s regime, Two consecutive wins in impressive fashion have righted all the wrongs in Saskatchewan.
Wes Cates is looking more comfortable by the start. The added dimension of a dynamic running attack allows Kerry Joseph to worry about only being efficient, rather than spectacular.
Cates is making big plays via the run game, pas game, and even helped out on special teams running down Ian Smart, saving a sure touchdown after a missed Luca Congi field goal attempt.
Week after week the Riders defence stops the run on first down and rushes the passer with great pressure on 2nd.
An encouraging sign for the Rider faithful is that a relatively young secondary without its veteran leader Eddie Davis has covered well even when the defence isn’t blitzing. When the Riders take care of the ball on offense they are as good as any unit in the league and a tough team to beat.
Andy Fantuz has reclaimed his spot in the staring line up and he looks like he has put that bout of the drops behind him.
The best thing the Riders are doing for their team is putting together long drives. Very rarely of late have the Green Riders gone 2 and out. They are keeping their defence off the field and fresh and the defence is rewarding them by turning the ball over and getting the ball back to them quickly.
Some Game Trends.
Current streak:
Saskatchewan has won 2 straight games.
Toronto has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Saskatchewan: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS
Toronto: 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS
Saskatchewan most recently:
When playing in August are 4-6
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the conference are 6-4
Toronto most recently:
When playing in August are 6-4
When playing on turf are 3-7
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Saskatchewan is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Saskatchewan's last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Saskatchewan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Saskatchewan's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Toronto's last 20 games at home
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
Summary:
Saskatchewan has the best defence in the league and have allowed the most points all season long. They are traveling to Toronto to play the Argonauts who have their 4th string quarter back in. Rocky Butler was brought up and built in Saskatchewan. He played every game until this season with the Riders. Its simple Saskatchewan knows his every move he will make all game long. They know how to contain him and know how to make him make errors.
Another disadvantage for the Argo's is the fact that Kent Austin was the Offensive Coordination from 2004-2006 for the Argo's. He helped design the offence and watch the defence practice every single day. He knows every trick the Argo's have and knows all the players. The Riders have outscored opponents 72-24 in their last 3 games. Argo's starting league premium running back John Avery is not playing which puts the Argo's in a even bigger hole.
This game will be won by coaching plain and simple. Look for a big Rider's win Friday Night.
Pick : Saskatchewan Roughriders -3 1 Unit Of Wager.
Ben Burns NFLx Non-Conf. GOY
TAMPA BAY
Game: New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Time: 8/10/2007 7:30:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Reason: I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Due to their dominance this millennium, the Patriots are always a popular "public" pick and often see rather inflated lines. They've received a lot of attention in the offseason, due in large part to the signing of Randy Moss, and I believe that has helped to give us excellent value on their opponent, Tampa Bay, for Friday's opener. It's important to know coach's and team's past preseason tendencies, not just for the exhibition season as a whole, but also for specific individual weeks. Looking back to last season and we find that the Pats played in Atlanta for their preseason opener. They ended up losing that game by three points. However, a closer look shows that they were down by 10 entering the fourth quarter and that they never held a lead at any part of the game. Looking back at the Patriots' opener the previous season and we find that they earned a victory at Cincinnati. The Pats had some extra motivation for that game though as the Bengals had crushed them 31-3 the previous year, which happened to also be New England's first road game of the preseason. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has been dominant every year (5-0 ATS last five years) in their preseason opener. In 2003, the Bucs won by one point as road underdogs at Miami. Note that they were leading 20-6 entering the fourth quarter. They also won their home opener (10-6 vs. Jax) the same season. In 2004, the Bucs won 20-6 vs. Cincinnati. In 2005, they defeated the Titans by three points in their preseason opener. In last season's opening preseason contest, here at home, the Bucs dominated the Jets by a score of 16-3. In addition to the Bucs' tendency to win their opener, I also feel that their quarterback rotation (Simms, Gradkowski, Garcia, McCown) is signficantly stronger than New England's rotation of Brady, Cassel and Gutierrez, considering that Brady won't see much action. In addition to playing at home, the Bucs are off a disappointing year and have a lot more to prove. Look for them to be the hungrier team and for that to result in a victory. *NFLx Non-Conf. GOY
Ben Burns
Game: New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Aug 10 2007 7:30PM
Prediction: over
Reason: I feel that Friday's Tampa Bay New England "total," which currently sits below the key number of 34, seems a little on the low side. Both teams have shown a tendency to score a reasonable number of points in their preseason opener. Let's take a look at their opening games from the last four preseason campaigns. In 2003, the Patriots scored 26 points vs. the Giants while Tampa tallied 20 vs. Miami. The following year, in 2004, the Bucs again scored 20 points in their preseason opener (vs. Cincinnati) while New England posted 24 points vs. the Eagles. Two years ago, the Patriots scored 24 points vs. Cincinnati while Tampa Bay scored 20 points (vs. Tennessee) for their third straight opener. Last season, New England scored 23 while Tampa slipped to 16. Despite last season's lower score, the Bucs have still managed an average of 19 points in their last four preseason openers while the Pats have averaged greater than 24. The teams will only need to average 17 each to finish above Friday's low number. Consider a play on the OVER
Mike Rose
Buffalo Bills +6.0
Fri Aug 10 '07 8:00p
Unfortunately, I started off my 2007 NFLX campaign with a loss after I backed the Saints in their match-up with the Steelers in the Hall of Fame game. I figured HC Sean Payton would try to get his club off to a great start after going through their 2006 pre-season schedule with just one victory to show for it. They had a seasons worth of their schemes built into their roster, yet the same problems that hindered their performance a year ago popped up again. I sat in disgust, as Big Ben and the Steeler offense wasted no time in getting on the board by throwing deep on the Saints secondary. It was 7-0 before you could blink, and the rest of the game was just miserable to watch as the Saints offense and defense struggled throughout the rest of the game. Now, many will be quick to hop on the Saints and lay the points in this spot simply because they have a game under the belts already. That has been a losing proposition for years now as the linesmakers have caught on to this trend and adjusted the pointspread accordingly. The value is clearly with the Bills here who have said to put together some outstanding practice time in camp to date, and they come into this game hungry looking to show they can hang with a team predicted to be an NFC Championship contender. The Bills were a perfect 2-0 ATS on the road in the pre-season under HC Dick Jauron last year, so grab the points here and bank on JQP’s futility.
Cappers Access
Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick
(Fri) MLB Rockies Cubs 140 Cubs
(Fri) MLB W. Sox Mariners 120 W. Sox
(Fri) NFL Saints Bills 6 Bills
Big Al
BIG AL'S AMERICAN LEAGUE B-L-O-W-O-U-T SUPERPLAY
Texas Rangers
Stan Sharp
Double Dime
Pittsburgh Pirates
AAA Sports
MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros - Astros (Bush/Jennings) -106
Game Date: 8/10/2007
Note: I am going to be very brief on this play as I am spending a lot of time preparing for the Football Season, which should allow us to get off to my usual very good start. This game in Houston tonight is a lot about the Brewers not performing well of late, the Cubs Footsteps that they hear, and their lack of road success over the last 3 years. This team is playing scared, and there is no doubt about that. They finished last year just 27-54 away from Miller Park, and this year they continue to mirror that performance. In every offensive, and pitching department they are down when they travel and that does include what Bush has done this year. Dave is allowing hitters a .308 batting average when pitching on the road and we cannot expect him to get much relief when he leaves this game with Milwaukee second line throwers also not performing well on the road and most recently. They did get a day off and that is at least going to give this Pen some time off, but they have been under the gun a lot in the last 3 series and should be weary at the moment. I am not going to try to convince you that Jennings is going to have a good start but he does throw much better at home despite his last game that zoomed his numbers sky high. The Astros are striking the ball much better these days and they are coming off a sweep of the Cubs. They have a much better home record and in fact are 6 games over the .500 mark playing at Minutemaid this year. In many respects they are just like the Brew Crew with much better home stats than on the road. This Park is not one of the better HR hitting venues of the league and that is what Milwaukee brings best to the table. Milwaukee has lost the last 6 away from Miller, and 8 of 9. They have not been a good Underdog Play this year and are just 8-31 last 39 in this situation. Much like all other away venues, they have not had spiffy figures at this Park either, managing to win just 15 times over the last 53 meetings here. That monkey is still riding their back and I am going to ride that same monkey again tonight.
Wunderdog NFL
2 unit BUF+6
Trey Johnson
Trey Johnson Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, August 10, 2007
#270 Tampa Bay (-) over New England at 7:30 PM EST
Tampa and New England have faced each other five times in the pre-season since 1983 with Tampa holding a 5-0 ATS for 100% advantage. While Tampa likes to win these games the Patriots don’t care too much about the pre-season. Since 1983 the Pats are a dismal 8-13-3 ATS for 38% in the pre-season. With nothing to prove the Pats will use this game to take a look at the guys fighting to make the team. Tampa on the other hand will take a little more time to work out the kinks and get their guys off to a good start for the season. Grudens gang starts the season off on the right foot with a win tonight.
Play Tampa (-)
PPP
PPP (Gavazzi)
3% Buffalo
Michael Cannon NFLX
Friday's Plays:
20 Dime –
VIKINGS
Take the Vikings as the small home favorite tonight over the Rams.
Brad Childress did a fine job in his first campaign as Minnesota’s coach in the preseason last year, going 2-1-1 SU (3-1 ATS). He’s anointed Tavaris Jackson as his new starting quarterback, but his time will be brief as he’s slated to play somewhere between eight and 15 plays.
It shouldn’t matter because the Rams have struggled during the preseason, especially on the road. St. Louis is just 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS on the road in August since 2005.
The Vikings are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 preseason games overall. They are 5-1 SU in August at home going back to 2003 (4-2 ATS).
I like the Vikings to come out rolling tonight in their preseason home opener, so take them minus the small number over the Rams.
10 Dime –
FALCONS
Take the Falcons plus the points tonight in the Meadowlands against the Jets.
The Bobby Petrino era starts tonight for Atlanta and with all the controversy surrounding the suspended Michael Vick, he needs to get off to a good start.
I believe he will.
Joey Harrington will start at quarterback for the Falcons and he’ll be followed by Chris Redman, D.J. Shockley and possibly Lang Campbell. With the way Petrino ran his offense at Louisville, look for plenty of passes tonight from the Falcons.
The Jets were a surprise playoff team in 2006, but they didn’t fare well in the preseason last year, going 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS).
Atlanta is 15-7 ATS in its past 22 preseason games on the road.
Take the Falcons plus the points as they stay within the number and stand a good chance at pulling off the outright win in Petrino’s first game.
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