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Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick
(Tue) MLB Cubs Reds 150 Cubs
(Tue) MLB Brewers Cardinals 135 Brewers
Trends
Tuesday, August 14
Hot Pitchers
-- Mets won last six Hernandez starts (3-0, 2.72).
-- Phillies won Lohse's first two starts for them, scoring 16 runs.
-- Cubs are 9-4 in Zambrano's last thirteen starts. Reds are 10-1 in last eleven Harang starts.
-- Wells is 2-1, 3.03 in his last five starts.
-- Colorado won last eight Francis starts, scoring 68 runs.
-- Sabathia has 2.60 RA in his last four starts.
-- Kazmir is 4-1, 1.40 in his last six starts.
-- Halladay is 3-1, 3.00 in his last four starts. Angels won the last eight Saunders starts, scoring 57 runs.
-- Oakland won four of last five Dinardo starts.
-- Garza has a 2.36 RA in six starts this season.
Cold Pitchers
-- Kim gave up five runs in 2.1 IP in first start back with Arizona; he made 13 starts for this Marlins team, before they traded him. Willis is 0-4, 7.96 in his last six starts.
-- Snell is 0-6, 8.16 in his last six starts.
-- Hill makes first start since May 11; he was 3-2, 3.07 in his last seven starts.
-- Braves lost last three Smoltz starts (0-1, 5.85). Atchison threw 53 innings in 38 AAA appearances this year, so he is just in for couple innings, as Giant pitching is fouled up after twinbill split in Pittsburgh yesterday.
-- Milwaukee lost Capuano's last fourteen starts (0-9, 6.45).
-- Padres lost six of last eight Maddux starts.
-- Albers is 0-4, 8.72 in his last five starts. Tomko is 1-5, 7.07 in his last seven starts.
-- Cabrera has a 5.42 RA in his last six starts. Karstens makes his first start since April 28; he was 0-1, 14.55 in two starts.
-- Bonderman is 0-4, 11.69 in his last four starts.
-- Lester has 7.80 RA in his last three starts.
-- Davies was on losing side in seven of last nine starts. Texas is 1-5 in Millwood's last six starts.
-- Garland has a 9.08 RA in his last seven starts.
-- Ramirez is 0-2, 10.07 in his last four starts.
Totals
-- Under is 14-4-2 in last twenty Arizona road games.
-- Over is 14-4 in Pirates' last eighteen games.
-- Over is 14-4 in Phillies' last eighteen road games.
-- Over is 11-2 in last thirteen Atlanta home games.
-- Over is 11-0-1 in last dozen Cincinnati road games.
-- Over is 7-3 in Brewers' last ten games.
-- Over is 7-3 in last ten Colorado games.
-- Over is 6-1 in Astros' last seven road games.
-- Seven of last nine Oriole games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-4 in last fourteen Cleveland home games.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten games at Fenway Park.
-- Under is 6-3 in Angels' last nine road games.
-- Last five Kansas City games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-2 in White Sox' last nine road games.
-- Under is 14-2 in Minnesota's last sixteen games.
Hot Teams
-- Arizona won seven of its last eight road games.
-- Pirates won four of their last five games.
-- Phillies won five of their last seven games. Nationals won five in a row, seven of last eight at home.
-- Braves are 5-2 in last seven home series openers.
-- Colorado won five of its last seven games.
-- Cardinals won four of their last five games.
-- Bronx won eight of its last nine home games.
-- Red Sox won six of last seven home games.
-- Angels won six of their last seven games. Toronto won nine of its last eleven home games.
-- Rangers won seven of last ten home games.
-- Mariners won six of their last seven games.
Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost last seven home series openers, but did go 3-1 on last four games of just-finished road trip.
-- Mets lost three of their last four games.
-- Giants lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Cubs lost six of their last eight games. Reds lost six of their last eigt road games, three of four overall.
-- Brewers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Padres are 5-12 in game after their last 17 wins.
-- Astros are 7-16 in their last twenty-three road games. Dodgers are 4-14 in their last eighteen games overall.
-- Orioles lost five of their last seven games.
-- Indians lost their last three games, allowing 22 runs. Detroit is 2-7 in its last nine road games.
-- Devil Rays are 5-22 in last twenty-seven road games.
-- Royals lost five of their last six road games.
-- White Sox lost three of their last four games. A's are 6-9 in last fifteen home games.
-- Twins lost their last five games, scoring total of ten runs.
Jim Feist.
My free pick of the day is the game between (963) COL Rockies and (964) SDG Padres. Take "(963) COL Rockies". San Diego might still be a bit sluggish, coming home after a 7-game trip. They had a losing record on the trip, too. Starter Greg Maddux is winless his last three starts (0-2) with a 3.93 ERA. Colorado has an ace in lefty Jeff Francis, who is 13-5. He's also on a roll at 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA his last three starts. Play the Rockies!
BIG AL MCMORDIE
Our 3 selections are the Dodgers, Brewers, and the Blue Jays.
Toronto -- At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays with Roy Halladay over the Angels. All the former Cy Young Winner does at home is win. This year he's 9-1, and he's also led the Blue Jays to 28 wins in his last 34 starts on artificial turf. The First Place Angels have been struggling away from Anaheim, as they've won just 9 of 22 games on the road. Take Toronto.
Brewers -- At 8:05 pm, our NL Central Game of the Month is on the Milwaukee Brewers over St. Louis. Even though Milwaukee has not played well of late, and even though Chris Capuano has not won any of his last 14 starts, we'll back Ned Yost's men tonight. Kip Wells has been awful in his three starts vs. Milwaukee this season (15 runs in 18 innings) while Capuano has been a little bit better than OK in his 2 starts vs. St Louis (4 runs in 9 1/3 innings). The Cards will feel the ill effect of not having 2B Adam Kennedy in the lineup, and Milwaukee is still the best home team in baseball. Take the Brewers.
Dodgers -- At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the LA Dodgers over Houston, as we will fade Astro starter Matt Albers, who has just 1 win against 5 losses in 9 starts, with an ERA over 6 runs per game. Houston is also 34-47 on the road vs. righties this year, and 2-9 on the road vs. NL West division teams. Brett Tomko threw 6 shutout innings in his last start vs. Houston, and LA is 87-54 (+23 games on the money line) vs. losing teams the past two years. Take LA.
Marc Lawrence
Game: Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners Aug
14 2007 10:05PM
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
Reason: Play On: Minnesota w/Garza over Seattle w/ Ramirez
Note: Twins Matt Garza is in fine KW form with 5 walks and 17 strikeouts in his last three starting efforts. Meanwhile, Mariners Horacio Ramirez is 7-0 at home this season but enters this game off back-to-back phony 'inside-out' wins in his last two starts. Look for Minnesota to hand Ramirez his first home defeat here tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners Aug 14 2007 10:05PM
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Reason: All stats are prior to last night's game. The Twins had dropped their last 4 games, all 4 were road games. Minnesota is 3-7 in their last 10 overall. In their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record, they are 0-4. The Mariners have won 7 of their last 10. In their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing record they are 8-1. Seattle is 20-8 in their last 28 home games. Seattle is 7-0 in Ramirez's last 7 home starts. Seattle has won 4 of his last 5 overall. The Mariners are playing very good baseball and will take this one tonight.
John Fina
August 14, 2007
Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (+110)
MATT FARGO
Seattle looks to continue its second best home record in the American League as it takes on the Twins in the second game of this series. The Mariners are 20-8 in their last 28 home games and 19-7 in their last 26 home games against a team with a losing record. Minnesota has really been struggling as it has dropped eight of its last 11 games while the offense has scored three runs or less in 10 of those contests. The Twins are 2-5 in their last seven road games against a team with a winning record.
Home/road dichotomy plays a big role in the success of some pitchers around the league. In six road starts, Horacio Ramirez is 1-3 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.50 WHIP with Seattle going 1-5 in those games. In seven home outings, he is 6-0 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with Seattle going 7-0 in those games. Six of his seven home starts have been quality outings and the offense behind him has averaged a solid 6.4 rpg in those contests. Saying that Ramirez feels more comfortable at home is a drastic understatement.
Matt Garza has been a pleasant surprise since entering the rotation in early July as he as posted a 1.70 ERA in six starts and one relief appearance. The problem is that he only has one win to show for it as the offense has hurt him as well, averaging just 3.5 rpg in those six starts. Even that is skewed with a 12-run outburst included so the other five games resulted in just 1.8 rpg. The Mariners are 4-1 in their last five games against a right-handed starter.
This is a great contrarian situation for the Mariners based on recent starter performances and the price is better than the norm. Play against road underdogs with a moneyline of +100 or higher that are starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs last outing against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.00 or more over his last three starts. This situation is 53-14 against the moneyline (79.1 percent) over the last five seasons with the average run differential being +2.0 rpg in those 67 games. Play Seattle Mariners 1 Unit
MATT RIVERS
For Tuesday lay a run and a half with the Braves at home.
Yes, I know all about John Smoltz' issues how he hasn't been throwing the split finger fastball and is topping out at speeds which are very low for him but the bottom line here is that the Giants are a joke right now and should get drilled. Plus San Fran has pretty much a minor league journeyman pitcher on the bump here against Smoltz in Scott Atchison. Even if the Atlanta hurler is running on fumes he is still far better than "Scott Atchison".
The Braves had Monday off after the tough series' in New York against the Mets and in Philadelphia against the Phillies. Bobby Cox' squad split the six games and truly should have won at least five of the six if not for a few bad breaks. Atlanta is very very good right now and cannot be taken lightly.
The Giants meanwhile are horrific and just burned themselves out yesterday in that doubleheader in Pittsburgh. Barry Bonds and the G-Men do not even seem to care about winning and continue to underachieve as any team has ever underachieved.
With Mark Teixeira in the middle of the lineup the Bravos are extremely potent. Throw in the former Texas Rangers star with Chipper, Francouer, McCann and a few others and there is no reason at all that this game should be close.
San Francisco is absolute mush right now. They lose game after game and are in a spot here where if they lose by 10 runs nobody would bat an eye. I will gladly lay that run and a half and expect a blowout!
Global Handicapping
8/14/2007 at 7:05:00 PM
New York Mets/O Hernandez R at Pittsburgh Pirates/I Snell R
New York Mets
SCOTT DELANEY
TUESDAY NIGHT IN BASEBALL WE'LL PLAY
PADRES (WITH Maddux and Francis) - Look for San Diego to hold on to sole possession of second place in the N.L. West after taking Game 1 this crucial series with this Rockies in pitcher-friendly PETCO Park.
And while know the Rox are sending one of their top hurlers to the hill in this one, the Rockies haven't seen much success when Jeff Francis toes the rubber against the Friars. The Rockies are just 2-6 in Francis' last eight starts versus the Friars, not to mention a dismal 1-4 mark in his last five starts at PETCO.
On top of that, the Rockies have won just once in their last eight games in San Diego.
Low chalk here, as Greg Maddux is long overdue for a win, and will get it tonight.
3♦ PADRES
DRGSPORTS
8/14/2007 at 10:05:00 PM
Minnesota Twins/M Garza R at Seattle Mariners/H Ramirez L
Minnesota Twins
Gator's MLB 70% Situational Report:
MLB (Tuesday): Play Against MLB road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last start facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts.
(53-14 last 5 seasons.) (79.1%) PLAY: Texas -140
Bobby Maxwell
We're taking a shot with the Devil Rays tonight because their starting pitcher tonight has been red hot in his last three starts and outdueled some big-name pitchers. Tampa's Scott Kazmir (9-7, 3.58 ERA) is on the hill and he is not a pitcher we want to go against right now.
In his last three starts Kazmir has allowed one run in 19 innings as the Devil Rays have beaten Boston, Baltimore and Detroit. He has outdueled the Red Sox Dice-K and Detroit's Jeremy Bonderman in two of those starts and he is getting enough offense to get him the wins.
Kazmir has allowed more than one run just once in his last six starts. Against Boston he has been a roller coaster ride, dominating the Red Sox in Tampa but struggling against them in Boston. But we're going with him tonight to do just like he did back on July 29, and dominate them from the outset.
Boston's Jon Lester (1-0, 6.43) was hit hard in his last outing, lasting just 3 1/3 innings and giving up five runs on eight hits. He has made four starts this season and allowed at least four runs in three of them. Sure the Red Sox have won three of the four but it's because of the offense and not because of his pitching.
Lester gave up four runs in 6 2/3 innings back on July 28 against the Devil Rays, and if he does the same tonight, Kazmir and the Devil Rays will win this game. Grab the plus-money and play Tampa Bay.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
Karl Garrett
Big showdown at Petco Park tonight, as Colorado and San Diego are neck-and-neck in the West.
Certainly on paper it looks like the red-hot Jeff Francis is a "lock" against the slumping Greg Maddux, but if you look closer - like the G-Man has - you will see that Francis has had all kinds of trouble with this Padres' line up, as Francis is just 4-8 for his career against the Pods, and this season he has been shelled to a tune of 11 runs in just 12 innings of work.
San Diego has won 2 of the first 3 at home this year against Colorado, and they are 13-8 overall the last 2-plus years at home against the Rockies. With Colorado sporting just a 26-33 mark this season away from friendly Coors where they are 12 games over .500, the G-Man will go with the Padres to open this big 3 game set with a win.
Greg Maddux may not have any wins to show for his last few starts, but he has pitched decently his last 3 trips to the mound. Look for him to give the Padres what they need tonight.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Chris Jordan
For Tuesday we're going to play the Cubbies over Cincinnati
Some kind of matchup here, as arguably the two best hurlers in the NL Central go in this power clash. And after surviving a 2-5-road trip, the Cubs are still only 1-1/2 games back of the division-leading Brewers.
I am going to side with Carlos Zambrano here, as he comes in off a brutal loss to the Astros and will look to redeem himself in this crucial series-opener against the Reds and their ace hurler Aaron Harang.
The Big Z should be able to overpower this lineup for win No. 15, as he's won three of his last five decisions against the Reds. He's lost two of the three this season, but was stellar in his last start against Cincinnati, tossing seven scoreless innings on July 29 in Cincinnati.
Tonight, at Wrigley – where Harang struggled on April 13 – I'll bank on Zambrano to bounce back solidly.
2♦ CUBS
Tony Mathews
Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Selection: Washington Nationals (-105)
Great Lakes Sports
Major League Baseball Selection:
LA Angels at Toronto 7:05PM EST Play on: LA Angels with Saunders
The Angels are on a roll going 6-1 their last seven games, and the Angels Saunders is a perfect 6-0 with an 3.46era this year. The Angels are also 26-17 when playing a team with a winning record this year, and 40-28 after a win this year. The Bluejays are 27-31 when playing a team with a winning record this year, and are 37-42 in night games this year. We look for the LA Angels to grab the road win tonight.
Joe Nelson
Houston (Albers) + over Los Angeles (Tomko)
The Dodgers are an absolute go-against team right now as the offense is averaging fewer than two runs per game in the last ten games. Brett Tomko has been ineffective as both a starter and a reliever this season and he features a 2-9 record with an extremely high ERA. Matt Albers has made just two starts this season and one was highly successful. The Astros are not a good road team but they have improved play in recent weeks. The Dodgers are just 8-17 in the last 25 home games and Los Angeles should not be favored over anyone right now with the way the team is hitting.
Bryan Leonard
(953) Mets at Pirates:
Getting away from Shea will help the Mets offense. They are actually 8-4 their last 12 road games! Starter Orlando Hernandez continues to impress, with a 7-4 record and a 2.61 ERA his last three starts. Young Pirates starter Ian Snell has hit the wall, with an 0-2 record and a 5.82 ERA his last three starts.
PLAY THE METS
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
L.A.Angels (Saunders) +155* over Toronto (Halladay)
Seattle (Ramirez) -105* over Minnesota (Garza)
VEGAS EXPERTS
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
Tuesday, August 14th, 7:05 P.M. EDT
Mets need to take advantage of this opportunity. Return of Moises Alou has given a boost to their batting order. El Duque putting up fantastic numbers, with 82 hits allowed in 118 IP. Supporting angles say to Play Against - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PITTSBURGH) - good fielding team - averaging <=0.6 errors/game on the season against opponent excellent speed team - averaging 1 or more SB's/game on the season (138-86 since 1997) and Play Against - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PITTSBURGH) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), in August games. (96-53 since 1997.)
Play on: New York
08/14
Gamblers Data
Play on: Atlanta -1.5 -120
Free Play Record
780-443
64%
Big Dons World Class Handicapping
MLB
Kansas City Royals(0) ~ vs ~ Texas Rangers(0)
Texas Rangers -135
Michael Cannon:
15 Dime –
DIAMONDBACKS (With Kim and Willis as listed pitchers)
Take the Diamondbacks as the road dog for the win over the Marlins.
Arizona has been one of the hottest, if not the hottest, team in the majors. They will be facing a pitcher who has fallen on some very tough times in Dontrelle Willis.
The D-Train, once one of the best young pitchers in the league, has struggled to a 7-12 record this year. He is 0-9 with a 5.14 ERA in 13 starts since his last win on My 29. The left-hander has also been snake bitten at home, where he’s 0-7 with a 5.02 ERA in his last 10 outings since his last win on April 23.
Willis has also struggled against Arizona, going 1-4 with a 4.55 ERA in five career starts.
The Diamondbacks are 17-4 since July 21, which has catapulted them to the top of the NL standings.
Arizona will start Byung-Hyun Kim, who was acquired off waivers from the Marlins. The right-hander is 6-3 with a 5.09 ERA in 20 career appearances, including five starts, against the Marlins.
Arizona is just the better team here facing a pitcher who can’t buy a win.
Take the Diamondbacks as the road dog for the win.
5 Dime –
PIRATES (With Snell as listed pitcher)
Take the Pirates as the home dog over the Mets.
I know it sounds like a reach, but the Pirates have actually been playing pretty well recently, winning four of their last five. They will send Ian Snell to the mound tonight and he looked like he was rounding back into form in his last start.
Snell has slumped badly since the All-Star break, but he pitched six innings, allowing just two earned runs while striking out seven in his last start, a no-decision in the Bucs’ 4-2 loss at Arizona.
The Mets will start Orlando Hernandez, and the right-hander has pitched well this season but has been the victim of poor run support.
He has just seven wins on the year, the same as Snell, despite a solid 3.05 ERA.
The Mets as a team haven’t been solidifying their position as a playoff team, going 2-4 over their last six games.
Take the Pirates as the home dog for the win.
CARDINALS (With Wells and Capuano as listed pitchers)
Take the Cardinals as the road dog for the win over the Brewers.
I can’t believe I’m actually going to side with St. Louis starter Kip Wells, on the road no less, but that’s how poorly Chris Capuano has been pitching for Milwaukee.
The Brewers left-hander is 0-9 with a 6.33 ERA over his last 14 starts since his last win on May 7. He’ll have his hands full with a rejuvenated St. Louis lineup, especially Albert Pujols, who is batting .560 (14-for25) with three home runs and 10 RBIs lifetime against the left-hander.
Wells has actually turned his season around somewhat, going 1-0 with a 3.50 ERA over his last three starts. The right-hander has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts.
Take the Cardinals as the road dog as they grab the win.
Ben Burns
Game: Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers Aug 14 2007 8:35PM
Prediction: Texas Rangers
Reason: The Rangers will have payback on their minds as they were swept at KC a few weeks ago and lost the finale of that series by a score of 10-0. Millwood gets the call and he's admittedly had a poor year. However, he comes off a "quality start" vs. Oakland, allowing three runs through six innings and his numbers at home are better than his opponent's numbers on the road. Indeed, Davies has a 6.17 ERA and 1.821 WHIP while seeing his team go 3-7 in 10 road starts. Despite his high ERA, Millwood has gotten strong run support here and remains a healthy 5-3 at home on the season. The Rangers are 5-2 the last seven times they hosted the Royals and 6-3 this season when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Consider a play on TEXAS
FastEddieSports
08-16-2007, 09:21 AM
Thursday August 16, 2007
Eddie McKinney
Fast Eddie Sports
MLB and NFL PreSeason
20* $200 TOP Plays -
Cincinnati Reds + 135
Kansas City Chiefs - 3
10* $100 Regular Play -
Over 8 LA Dodgers
...winning and grinning...
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