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Gator's NFLx 70% Situational Report:




NFLx (Thursday): Play Over NFL road teams when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points off a home win by 10 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the preseason.
(20-5 since 1993.) (80%) PLAY: Jacksonville / Green Bay OVER 39

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Dave Cokin.

My free pick of the day is the game between (905) CHI Cubs and (906) SF Giants. Take "(905) CHI Cubs". Dave enjoyed a big top play sweep Wednesday with the Royals, Devil Rays and Yankees all producing wins. The fun continues tonight with Dave's call on the Jaguars-Packers, plus a dynamite FREE baseball bonus. Check this one out now for only $25 at Dave's Solid Gold Club!..."Carlos Zambrano has gotten roughed up in his last two official starts. But his down streaks are generally short lived. Plus, the big righty should be very fresh here after working just a little bit in Sunday's rainout with the Cardinals. Zambrano is 4-0 lifetime vs. SF and he's up against the very unlucky Matt Cain. The Giants are a woeful 6-19 when Cain starts, and have not won two of his starts in succession the entire campaign. I'll be on the favored Cubs and Zambrano here."

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Jim Feist.

My free pick of the day is the game between (909) ATL Braves and (910) CIN Reds. Take "(910) CIN Reds". Atlanta has lost 4 of 6 and the problem is pitching. They've allowed almost 7 runs per game over the last 7 contests. Starter Buddy Carlyle is one of the problems, with a 6.91 ERA the last three starts. The Reds faced him once and smacked him around for 4 runs in 5 innings. Cincy starter Elizardo Ramirez (3.86) has good stuff and the team is on a 10-6 run. Play the Reds!

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Brian Gabrielle
FREE PLAY: Proposition 1 Special vs Proposition 2 Special
So, at this week's Barclays in Westchester take Zach Johnson (50-1), 1/6 unit: Johnson also knows that with a major (The Masters) and a regular Tour win, he could take Player of the Year honors if he wins the FedEx Cup. He's playing well now, as he has all year, despite missing the cut in the PGA. Before that, he had a T20 at the British Open and a T11 at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Westchester is a classic layout with teeth. It's going to play faster this year because we're nearing the end of August. Johnson did pretty well at another classic course with quick greens earlier this year. Take Steve Stricker (50-1), 1/6 unit: He's been playing great for two years now. My only concern is that after the British Open he might be emotionally spent. He wants it so bad and everyone wants it for him, but I wonder if it's just not in the cards. Still, he followed the T8 at the Open with a respectable T41 at the WGC and T23 at the PGA. One of the best putters in the game. Take Geoff Ogilvy (50-1), 1/6 unit: Ogilvy hasn't won in 2007 though it seems like he has on account of the five top-10s. He's coming off a T6 at the PGA. Nothing wrong with his game, no reason he can't win. You could say that about at least twenty other talented young guys, but Ogilvy doesn't have the damage some of the others have (Sergio comes to mind). He finished T18 at Westchester last year.
posted at 2007-08-22 17:14:04

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cappersaccess
(Thur) NFL Jaguars Packers 2- Packers
(Thur) NFL Chiefs Saints 1- Chiefs

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Mike Rose

Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants u7.5 (-120)
Thu Aug 23 '07 3:35p

The Cubbies picked up another late inning win last night in San Francisco, and look to wrap up the series in style with their 90 million dollar man on the hill. Carlos Zambrano looked brilliant in his short stint on Sunday night vs. STL, but rain forced the postponement of the game and he's back on just three days rest. That being said, the limited rest is nothing for "El Toro" and he should be able to carve through this aging Giants line-up like a warm knife through butter. Matt Cain has pitched very well of late, and pretty good all season long for that matter. He just never gets any run support, and it's effected his W/L mark dramatically. However, he comes into today's game 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his L/3 starts. He's only allowed 15 hits in 20 innings of work, and boasts an impressive 17/4 K/BB ratio. The Cubbies have been hard pressed to get much offense going of late, and they'll be challenged today by a determined Matt Cain looking to atone for his earlier start at Wrigley vs. the Cubs this season. I'd also take a flyer on the Giants as small home pups, but this game just has 2-1 or 1-0 written all over it. Look for both starters to dominate and for this one to come in comfortably 'Under' this posted number.

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Sports Gambling Hotline


Oakland (-115) at TAMPA BAY

In case you are unaware, the Oakland A's just swept Toronto, and bring a 4-game overall winning streak into Tampa Bay where they face a Devil Rays team that did not fare too well to start this week at home against Boston.
We will take the A's to make it 5 straight wins, as Gaudin works against Hammel.
Both pitchers have had some bad starts in the month of August, but at least Gaudin is 9-9 for the year, while Hamel is 0-3 as a starter with a sky-high ERA of 7.11.
Oakland took 2 of 3 earlier this year at Tampa, and they are 4-2 dating back to last season at Tropicana Field.
This one could see a few runs, but in the end we like the Athletics to keep their winning streak active.


Play the A's.

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Marc Lawrence


Florida Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, August 23rd, 8:10 P.M. EST EST

Cards wrap up three game series with the Marlins knowing they are 12-4 at home in Game Three of a series this season. With Florida's Rick Vanden Hurk sporting a miserable 7.77 ERA away from home in his team starts this season, we'll stay at home with the Red Birds here tonight. - Good Luck

Play on: St. Louis

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Vegas Experts

Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants
Thursday, August 23rd, 3:35 P.M. EDT

Expect Cubs/ ace Zambrano to overpower Giants' lineup that figures to rest Barry Bonds. The CHICAGO CUBS are 35-22 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. ZAMBRANO is 10-1 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) SAN FRANCISCO is 38-55 against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 over the last 2 seasons and its starter CAIN is 1-13 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)

Play on: Chicago

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Vernon Croy


San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

1 Unit - Take the Mets -151, Glavine has pitched solid at home this season with an ERA of just 3.11 and he has an ERA of just 2.29 over his last 3 starts. The Padres have struggled against lefties this season hitting .248 as a team and they are just 2-8 when Germano has started for them in a night game this season. The Mets bounce back with a win tonight at home to close out the 3 game series against the Padres. All Free Plays (+2285) 58-31 L89 65%, Have a great Thursday! Vernon Croy

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Frank Rosenthal

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Major League Baseball
901 Dodgers-105 Sb
906 Giants+115 Sb
913 Fish+155 Sb
Over 9.5 Sb+
915 Tribe Over 10 Sb+
918 Cookies Even Sb
924 Rangers+115 Sb


Nfl Preseason
261 Jags-3 Sb
Under 38 Sb+
264 Chiefs-1 Sb

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Michael Cannon


30 Dime



SAINTS



Take the Saints as the small road dog tonight over the Chiefs. With this line so close to a pick, I obviously like the Saints to win tonight. This is the only game of the preseason that you’ll get a true measure of a team’s true makeup, as the starters should play into the 3rd quarter. New Orleans looked like they were in mid-season form in beating the Bengals 27-19 last week. Quarterback Drew Brees was a perfect 6-for-6, while backup Jamie Martin finished 14-for-19. I wouldn’t be surprised if they put on a repeat performance tonight against Kansas City, but it’s the Chiefs impotent offense that makes the Saints so attractive to me. Kansas City has put up only 22 points through the first two games of the preseason, and it’s their unsettled situation at quarterback that’s handcuffing this team right now. Neither Damon Huard nor Brodie Croyle looks like a capable No. 1 QB right now, and with the pressure on both to get something going without running back Larry Johnson I don’t expect the Chiefs to score more than 17 points tonight. Kansas City is a pitiful 3-11 SUATS in the preseason going back to 2004. Take the Saints as they grab the easy win.



5 Dime

PIRATES (With Maholm and Morales as listed pitchers)

I had the Pirates as an easy 15 dime winner last night for my paying clients and I’m coming right back with them today. I don’t know what got into the Bucs offense, but they are looking like a machine right now. They pounded the Rockies for 11 runs and 17 hits last night, including six homeruns. The way they’re scoring right now, starter Paul Maholm won’t have to be dominant to pick up the win. The left-hander has won four of his last six starts, including an impressive bounce-back performance his last time out when he lasted seven innings, this after being touched for six runs over the first two innings, in an 11-6 win over the Phillies on Friday. Colorado starter Franklin Morales is a recent call-up and I expect the Pirates to get to him early and often this afternoon. Take the Pirates as the road dog for the win.



CUBS (With Zambrano and Cain as listed pitchers)

Take the Cubs as the road chalk for the win over the Giants. I know the Cubs have been struggling, but I like them to turn it around this afternoon behind their ace, Carlos Zambrano. The right-hander is 0-2 over his last three starts, but he has good career numbers against the Giants. Zambrano is 4-0 with a 2.84 ERA in six career games against San Francisco, and his success should continue today considering his mound opponent doesn’t get much run support from his teammates. Matt Cain will start for San Francisco, and he’s just 5-13 on the year despite a respectable 3.78 ERA. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 4.85 ERA in four career starts against the Cubs. Take the Cubs as they grab the road win.



COMP

Jaguars

Both teams are coming off blowout wins, but I like the Jags to come through tonight on the road. Jacksonville plans to play their starters into the 3rd quarter tonight, but Green Bay won't follow that plan as coach Mike McCarthy doesn't want to risk injury to his starters. Granted, Packers backup quarterback Aaron Rodgers has looked good this preseason, but I don't think he'll be able to continue to play at that high of a level against a tough Jaguars defense. On offense, the Jags will benefit from having Byron Leftwich and David Garrard running the show tonight. They combined to put up 377 yards of total offense last week against the Buccaneers, and since the Packers defense is still somewhat of a question mark, I expect more of the same tonight.
Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS in its past 9 preseason road games. Lay the points with the Jags as they grab the road win and cover.

3♦ JACKSONVILLE

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LARRY NESS

COMP

New York has won a season-high four consecutive games seven times this year but again failed to win a fifth straight with a 7-5 defeat to the Padres on Wednesday. The Mets ran into a tough Jake Peavy, who had 11 strikeouts to increase his league-high total to 186 and win his fifth straight decision. New York tried to rally with three runs in the ninth but lost for the first time in their last eight home meetings with the Padres. The Mets hope Glavine (11-6, 4.12 ERA) can help them avoid losing their third straight home series. He is 4-0 over his last seven starts and has been particularly strong in his last four, giving up six runs through 25.2 innings without allowing a homer. The Mets should feel particularly confident with Glavine starting at Shea, where he is 4-0 with a 1.96 ERA in six outings since May 30. The Padres will hand the ball to Justin Germano (6-7, 4.18), who is trying to end a dismal stretch. The right-hander won his first five decisions of the season but has dropped seven of his last eight. He is 0-4 with a 5.57 ERA over his last six starts, getting two or fewer runs of support in each of those outings.

Take the Mets

[PlayMaker]

"Big Al" McMordie Vegas Crusher - Guaranteed Winner 08/23/2007
Play: Take the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 P.M. ET)

[PlayMaker]

Wayne Root

Millionaire - Chiefs

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Lenny Del Genio's 15* Team Mismatch GOW (12-2 run with 15*s since Aug 6!)
The Play on the Braves at 7:10 ET. Atlanta, which failed to make the playoffs last year for the first time in a non-strike season since 1990, has lost five of its last seven games. Only four teams in baseball have worse records than the Reds (56-70) but Atlanta has been unable to take advantage as it's lost the last two games. Buddy Carlyle (7-5, 4.66) will get the start for Atlanta, as he tries to avoid losing his third straight start. Carlyle has been ripped for 12 runs (eight earned) and 16 hits over 9 1-3 innings in his last two outings and the right-hander has not made it past the fifth inning in his last four starts. However, Carlyle's shown an ability to pitch in the "big show," something Cincinnati's Elizardo Ramirez (0-1, 3.86 ERA) has yet to do. He was hardly dominating in the minors and he's been underwhelming so for in the majors. It hasn't helped that he's been shuttled from the bullpen to the rotation. Cincy has a weary bullpen (5.17 ERA ranks 28th of 30 teams!) and the team is hoping Ramirez can chew up some innings. The Reds are just 11-13 (minus-$560) versus right-handers in night games at home and at 29-33, own one of MLB's worst overall home marks. This game isn't really about the pitchers, it's more about the Braves being the much better team and needing the split. Atlanta is my 15* Team Mismatch of the Week.

[PlayMaker]

Larry Ness' 15* Blowout of the Week (18-2 L20 and 101-32 since Opening Day!)
My 15* play is on the LA Angels at 10:05 ET. One of my favorite pitchers in back in the "bigs!" Angels starter Ervin Santana (5-11, 5.96 ERA) seeks his first win since June 9. Santana went 0-5 with an 8.46 ERA in his next six outings before he was sent down to Triple-A Salt Lake. The right-hander returned to the majors last Friday and pitched well, allowing one run and four hits over 6 1-3 innings in a 7-5 win at Fenway Park. He retired the first 13 batters he faced. Of course everyone knows the "Santana story." In his first two seasons ('05 and '06), the Angels went a combined 23-10 in his home starts, as Santana posted ERAs of 3.52 and 3.46. However, they were only 10-15 in his road starts, as he posted ERAs of 7.43 and 5.95. That dichotomy has been just as pronounced in '07, as the Angels are 6-2 in his home starts (3.42) and 2-10 in his road starts (8.63). However, that excellent effort at Boston is a good sign. The Blue Jays counter with Jesse Litsch (4-6, 3.49). The team is just 4-8 in his 12 starts this year, although he probably deserves better. The problem here for the rookie right-hander is that while the Angels are just 15-15 vs lefties this year, they are 59-37 vs right-handers, including an outstanding 32-10 (plus-$1,495) at home! Meanwhile, Santana faces a Toronto team that's just 16-28 (minus-$1,085) in road night games this year, including averaging just 3.0 RPG in 32 games vs right-handers! Blowout of the Week 15* LA Angels.

[PlayMaker]

Larry Ness' 15* Situational Game of the Week (18-2 since Aug 7 / 101-32 Y-T-D!)
My 15* play is on the Sea Mariners at 8:35 ET. I just can't pass this one up, despite the fact I'm NEVER completely comfortable backing Jeff Weaver (I did win with him last Saturday, though!). While the Mariners lead the wild card race at 71-53 (trail the Angels by two games in the AL West) and have been atop the ML standings for quite some time (plus-$2,401), the Rangers are mired 18 games behind the Angels at 56-70 (16 games back of Seattle). However, it was the Rangers who "made all the news" yesterday! Texas set an American League standard for runs with its 30-3 rout of Baltimore in the first game of a DH on Wednesday. They followed up the afternoon game with a 9-7 victory in the nightcap. The 39 combined runs set an AL record for runs in a doubleheader, surpassing the 36 scored by Detroit in 1937. Let's not forget, the Rangers had totaled 28 runs in their previous nine games. Tonight, Texas will face a Seattle team that owns MLB's 2nd-best team BA (.287) and has averaged 6.2 RPG this month (only the Yankees have scored more). Kameron Loe (6-9, 5.56 ERA) will start for Texas. Loe allowed three hits in five innings of a 5-0 win over the Twins on Saturday, coming off the DL to make his first start since July 29. In his four previous starts, he had allowed 18 ERs in 20.2 innings (7.84 ERA) with Texas going 1-3. Seattle will counter with Jeff Weaver (5-10, 5.57), who looks to win his fourth consecutive start Thursday. Weaver allowed four runs and five hits in 7.2 innings on Saturday against the White Sox after pitching a five-hit shutout against them six days earlier. With Texas off that 'monster' DH yesterday, the "situation" is just too good to pass up! Situational GOW 15* Sea Mariners.