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Gator's "Right" Angle Technical Analysis

Listed below are some of Gator's Angles and Technical Situations for upcoming games.



MIAMI-OHIO at BALL ST

The visitor has cashed in seven of the last eight meetings in this Mid-American Conference rivalry. Ball State has 'covered' seven of its last nine as favorites. The Cardinals have lost nine of their last 11 season openers.

BUFFALO at RUTGERS

Buffalo has been shut out 10 times and has lost six of its last seven weekday games. Rutgers is 8-2 against the spread at home versus non-conference competition. The Bulls have failed in nine of their last 11 non-conference games

LSU at MISS ST.

LSU has won seven straight and 14 of its last 15 against Mississippi State. The Tigers had cashed nine straight against the Bulldogs until falling just short last year as 33 ½-point favorites, 48-17. LSU has won its last three at Starkville by 42, 35 and 30 points, respectively.

KENT ST at IOWA ST

Kent State is 2-27-1 straight up in road openers. Iowa State has won eight straight home openers by an average score of 33-12. The Cyclones are 20-2 SU against teams from the MAC and they have won four straight against the Golden Flashes by an average margin of 22 points.

UNLV at UTAH ST

UNLV has lost 15 straight and 17 of its last 18 on the road and failed to cash 10 of its last 12. Utah State has lost seven of its last eight at home and come up short in six of eight ATS.

UTAH at OREGON ST

Utah has cashed 11 of its last 12 as a road short of 3+ points. The Utes have been on the low side in 10 of 11 on the road when the number was between 49 ½ and 56. They have also fallen below the total in 14 of 18 non-conference battles.

[Bluemyboy]

Michael Cannon Money Train
Thursday's Plays:

30 Dime –

UTAH (Buy the ½ point if your line is +6 ½)
Take the points with Utah tonight over Oregon State.
The Utes return star quarterback Brian Johnson, who should spark their offensive attack. Johnson is a mobile quarterback who amassed 3600 yards of total offense in 2005 and will benefit from the return of his top six wide receivers.
Oregon State relies on pressuring the quarterback, but their impressive performances were against mostly drop-back passers of the Pac-10. Johnson ran for 690 yards in 2005, so his mobility will neutralize some of that pressure.
I’m also not willing to side with an Oregon State team that will roll with a two-QB system. Coach Mike Riley hasn’t decided between Sean Canfield or Lyle Moevao, so he’ll likely use this game and the next few before he settles on a clear No. 1.
Oregon State won 10 games last year, but their offense actually regressed by 57 ypg, and those numbers don’t figure to improve with a two-headed quarterback.
Another strike against Oregon State is the status of star WR/KR Sammie Stroughter, who took a leave of absence. If he doesn’t go tonight, that’s one big weapon Canfield and Moevao won’t have at their disposal.
Utah is a sterling 21-4-1 ATS as a road dog, and 16-5-1 ATS as a dog versus the Pac-10. The Utes are also 10-4 ATS in their last 14 lined games.
Take the points with Utah and remember to buy the ½ point if your line is +6 ½.

10 Dime –

KENT STATE
Take the points with Kent State tonight over Iowa State.
Iowa State begins the Gene Chizik era, who took over for the well-liked Dan McCarney. Chizik will have his hands full, as the Cyclones will field a mostly inexperienced team. They return seven starters from a defensive unit that allowed 393 ypg.
The Golden Flash return eight starters from a defense that allowed just 298 ypg. They also went on the road last year and beat Miami (OH) and Bowling Green. Kent State has enjoyed success against non-MAC foes, going 4-1 ATS, including 3-0 as a dog of less than 14 points.
The key angle in this game goes against Iowa State, as new coaches taking over a team who won four or fewer games the previous year going against teams who won six or more games the prior season are 4-42 SU in season openers.
I like Kent’s defense in this matchup and I love the angle against Chizik.
Take the points with Kent State and don’t be surprised if they pull off the outright win.

5 Dime –

REDS (With Belisle and Morris as listed pitchers)
Take the Reds as the road dog tonight over the Pirates.
Matt Belisle will start for Cincinnati and he has owned the Pirates this year. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA in three outings against the Bucs this year, holding them to a .234 batting average while walking only two and striking out 13 in 21 innings. He’s 6-1 with a 3.27 ERA in 16 career games against the Pirates, his most wins against any opponent.
The Bucs will counter with Matt Morris, who is 0-2 with a 6.05 ERA in his last three starts against the Reds.
Take the Reds as the road dog as they grab the win over the Pirates.
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[Bluemyboy]

Ben Burns' MAIN EVENT

Carolina Panthers

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Maddux Sports

Miami Ohio +6

[Bluemyboy]

Larry Ness' Daytime Delight (222-121 Y-T-D in MLB!)
My Daytime Delight is on the NY Mets at 1:05 ET. Philadelphia's 10-game homestand got off to a rough start but now the Phillies have a chance to end it by finishing off a four-game sweep of the NL East-leading New York Mets. The Phillies (70-62) opened the homestand with a win over the Dodgers before losing their next four games. However, Philadelphia rebounded with a win in the finale of its three-game set with San Diego and the three wins over the Mets (73-59) have moved the Phillies within three games of the division lead. However, New York will turn to its hottest pitcher as it looks to avoid the sweep. Orlando Hernandez (9-4, 3.07 ERA) is 5-0 with a 2.87 ERA since the break, with the Mets winning ALL nine of his starts! Philadelphia counters with Kyle Lohse (7-12, 4.47), who was acquired in a July 30 trade with Cincinnati. Lohse had a rough run earlier this year while with the Reds, in which Cincy lost 10 of his 12 starts at one point. He is though, coming off his best start with the Phillies. He gave up one run in 6.2 innings on Saturday but was denied a decision in Philadelphia's 4-3 loss to San Diego. Lohse is 1-0 with a 3.95 ERA in five starts for Philadelphia (team is 3-2) and has gone at least 6.1 innings in each of the last four. The Phillies are the hot team but I'm sticking with El Duque to come through in the clutch. Daytime Delight on the NY Mets.

[Bluemyboy]

Brandon Lang

25 DIME

LSU Tigers

10 DIME

Indians - Specify Pitchers - Ramirez vs Laffey

UL Monroe

Kent St

5 DIME

Yankees - Specify Pitchers - Schilling vs Wang

Miami/Ohio

Utah St

Free Pick - Utah Utes

[Bluemyboy]

Larry Cook



3* on Tampa Bay -101 (Listing Kazmir)

The Baltimore Orioles have lost 8 straight games, yet they are the favorite here against Tampa Bay’s Ace in Scott Kazmir? This line is mind boggling and we will gladly cash in with the Devil Rays tonight. Kazmir has a 3.64 ERA on the year. Kazmir has given up 1 run or less in 6 of his last 9 starts. He has given up 3 runs or less in 8 of these last 9 starts. The Devil Rays are 5-1 in Kazmir's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. The Orioles are 0-5 in Guthrie's last 5 starts. The Orioles are 3-13 in their last 16 home games. Bet the Devil Rays.

[Bluemyboy]

Hondo




August 30, 2007 -- The Rangers had one of those heroic-for-Hondo games last night, outlasting the pitiful Pale Hose in 11 to raise the accounts receivable to 210 randles. Today, the price is nice for El Duque - 10 units on the Metamucils to stamp on the Philatelists.

[Bluemyboy]

Jeff Benton



For Thursday, I’m giving out my first college football complimentary selection, backing LSU minus the big points at Mississippi State. To be honest, I don’t think the oddsmakers can set this line high enough. And I say that not so much because LSU is that dominant (although I think the Tigers will be, but it may take time), but because Mississippi State’s program is a mess. How bad are things for the Bulldogs? They haven’t won more than three games in six consecutive years, and they’ve lost 20 of 24 SEC games under disappointing coach Sylvester Croom. And against LSU, Croom’s Bulldogs haven’t even bothered to show up in recent years, losing 10 consecutive meetings, including four straight by at least 30 points! The bottom line here is the Bulldogs simply lack the requisite talent to hang with an explosive team like LSU, which is going to be especially ferocious on defense – this after a year in which the Tigers allowed the second-fewest points in all of College Football! When all is said and done, I firmly believe LSU can pretty much name the score if it wants to, and I have to believe coach Les Miles will have no problem pouring it on as he tries to set the tone that his team is indeed one to be reckoned with.

3♦ LSU

[Bluemyboy]

Van Winkle Sports CFB - 8/30/2007 Best Bet! LSU -17.5


VegasWise-Jorge Gonzalez CFB - 8/30/2007 LSU -17.5

MJP sports CFB - 8/30/2007 UTAH STATE 7

Who2beton CFB - 8/30/2007 UNLV at UTAH STATE Under 46.5

CopeMoney Sports CFB - 8/30/2007 TULSA -4

[Bluemyboy]

Chris Copeland


Tulsa vs. Ul Monroe (NCAAF)
Aug 30, 2007 7:00 PM EDT

Play: Point Spread: -4/Tulsa




Tulsa-30 UL Monroe- 21

[Bluemyboy]

Brian James

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs (MLB)
Aug 30, 2007 8:05 PM EDT

Play: Milwaukee Brewers
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[Bluemyboy]

RAZOR SHARP

TENNESSEE -7 over Green Bay

[Bluemyboy]

WISE OWL- Thurs NCAA- LSU

[Bluemyboy]

Ben Burns COMP

This line has moved up a couple of points since it's opener. However, the number still seems fairly reasonable given the class difference between these teams.

Indeed, the Tigers have absolutely owned the Bulldogs, going 11-1 straight up and 10-2 against the spread the past dozen meetings. That includes a 48-17 beat-down last year and a 37-7 thrashing in 2005. The previous year was even worse as LSU routed Mississippi State 51-0 in 2004. In fact, the Bulldogs haven't stayed within 18 points of the Tigers since the 2000 season! Coincidentally, that was the last time that the Bulldogs finished the year with a winning record.

The Tigers are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times that they were favored by greater than eight points. They'll face a Bulldogs' team which is 0-4 ATS in the month of August since 1997 and has lost a total of six defensive starters. The rules have changed back to the way they used to be. This will allow more plays which should allow the better team more time to run up the score. Consider laying the points with LSU.

Free Pick: LSU -17½

[Bluemyboy]

RAS

Tulsa at UL Monroe (+4) - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #141-142 - Thursday
Extremely rare showcase home game for the Warhawks on ESPN2. ULM went just 4-8 last year but had to play eight road games, including trips to Alabama and Arkansas. They lost by a combined four points in narrow losses at Kansas and at Kentucky, and came within 5 points in three other losses. They played very well down the stretch once dual threat 1st year starting QB Lancaster got acclimated. The junior completed 61% of his passes in final four games when ULM averaged 33.25ppg and covered the spread by double digits in each. All 11 starters return on offense led by an outstanding O-line featuring three players who earned spots on preseason award watch lists. ULM's unorthodox ball control offense can be difficult to prepare for. Despite road heavy schedule, ULM's 22.3ppg allowed last year was their lowest since moving to 1-A football in 1994 and six starters are back. The strength of the defense is in the secondary which matches up well vs Tulsa's passing game. The Golden Hurricane are clearly in a rebuilding year with only 10 combined returning starters while breaking in an entirely new coaching staff. Uncertain health of Tulsa starting RB Tennial (Achilles) is likely to leave them with just 3 returning starters on offense and in a vulnerable situation versus ULM's best team in years. Solid spot for a mild upset. Take the points.

RAS Early Look: UL Monroe +4 1/2 UNIT
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[Bluemyboy]

Wild Bill

Ball St -6 (1 unit)
Over 45 1/2 Kent-Iowa St. (1 unit)
Utah +7 (1 unit)
UL-Monroe +4 (1 unit)
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[Bluemyboy]

Selective Sports

Utah/Oregon St Under 52.5 for 2 units

Ball St -6 for 1 unit

UNLV -6.5 for 1 unit

[Bluemyboy]

Gator's NCAA 70% Situational Report:

NCAA (Thursday): Play On NCAA underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, with 17 or more total starters returning, in the first month of the season.
(32-8 ATS since 1992.) (80%) PLAY: Utah State +6.5
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[Bluemyboy]

Cappers Access

(Thur) CFB LSU Miss St 18 Miss St
(Thur) CFB Tulsa UL-Monroe 3 UL-Monroe
(Thur) NFL Bears Browns 4 Browns

[Bluemyboy]

Mike Rose

Buffalo U +32.0 (-110)
Thu Aug 30 '07 7:00p

In case you were asleep during the 2006 college football season, I have news for you. Rutgers won a bowl game for the first time in its 137-year history, and almost pulled off the unthinkable by earning a bid to play in a BCS game. It was a marvelous season for HC Greg Schiano and his kids, and 2007 looks to be bright as well. That being said, the “value” in this team is 110% gone, and you will be asked to eat a ton of chalk whenever they match-up against a much lesser foe. That’s exactly the case tonight, and after backing them hard in the Texas Bowl I have no choice but to fade them in their first game of ’07.

It’s not because I think they’re a lesser team from a year ago. However, some key cogs from 2006’s squad have departed, and I expect it to take a couple games for both sides of the ball to mesh with the new faces. This is an awful lot of chalk to have to eat in their inaugural game of the season, and I don’t foresee Schiano stomping the pedal to the metal for all four quarters. A bulk of his second and third stringers will see action in the second half leaving the backdoor wide open for Buffalo to sneak in. This line is almost 13-points higher than any spread we’ve seen the Scarlet Knights have to tackle the last couple seasons, and that has everything to do with what I stated at the beginning of this breakdown.

The Bulls are by no means a pretty team; in fact they’re downright putrid. However, they covered a couple lofty spreads at Wisconsin and Auburn a season ago. Head Coach Turner Gill saw his offense increase its offensive production by 8 PPG in his first season holding the reigns, and I expect that number to increase with nine starters back on that side of the ball. Rutgers has a big game on deck vs. Navy next Friday, so look for them to get out to a big lead and then coast the rest of the way as the coaching staff evaluates their back-up talent. I know it’s really tough to do, but purchase a Buffalo ticket and check the scores at around 10:30 ET. You’ll be pleasantly surprised….



Louisiana Monroe +3.0 (-110)
Thu Aug 30 '07 7:00p
This certainly isn’t a match-up that will get one’s blood boiling, but it presents value nonetheless, and we’ll be supporting Head Coach Charlie Weatherbie and the home team. I have the ULM Warhawks pegged to make some noise in the Sunbelt in ’07, and a win here will certainly get the program off on the right foot. It’s been 13 years since the Warhawks have had a winning football team, and that’s the #1 priority of this squad in ’07.

The end of 2006 gave us a glimpse of what the future might hold as ULM rattled off five straight covers to close out the year. They even gave SEC representative Kentucky all they could handle in their own backyard in a 42-40 defeat as 20-point road underdogs. The offense returns 17 starters from a year ago, and the groundwork has been laid the prior four seasons under Weatherbie and his staff. He proved to be a winner back in his days at Navy and Utah State (both went bowling under his tutelage), and I really feel its only a matter of time before he gets this program to its first ever bowl appearance.

Tulsa experienced great success under former Head Coach Steve Kragthorpe as they made Bowl appearances in three of the past four years. However, Kragthorpe has moved on to greener pastures, and new Head Coach Todd Graham takes over the reigns after putting forth a masterful effort at Rice a season ago. He and his staff will be implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball, and the 10 starters back (O:4 D:6) leads me to believe it will take some time for this group to catch on. Tulsa has dropped 12 straight road openers, and unfortunately for them and their fans, I foresee that number increasing to 13 after tonight.

Grab the points with the home team as they’ll be a very improved team (record wise) in ’07, and they have a better understanding of what their coach wants them to do.



Mississippi State +18.5 (-110)
Thu Aug 30 '07 8:00p

The annual SEC woodshed beating has been moved up in the schedule as the LSU Tigers invade Starkville to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs to kick-off each teams respective seasons. This series has been completely one sided and ugly for quite some time now. To say LSU's owned the Bulldogs would be putting it very kindheartedly. The average score between these two clubs has been 42-7 in favor of the Tigers the last six seasons, and the lone cover came last year when the Bulldogs lost by 31 as 33-point road pups. The Tigers bolted out to a big lead, and then allowed their second and third stringers to duke it out after a prolonged weather delay ultimately allowing the Bulldogs to get within the spread.

The Tigers have gotten respect from the betting public since this line opened, as the number has climbed a full two points and doesn’t seem to be stopping. This is an awful lot of points to lay in a hostile venue, and I’m not so sure LSU is capable of covering this lumber, regardless of them being the much talented squad. This is the fourth season of the Sylvester Croom regime in Starkville, and this club must show improvement over the next three months or else heads are going to roll. The Bulldogs looked to have turned the corner in the second half of ’06 with solid efforts vs. Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi. They return 14 starters from last year’s team and the main objective for this club in ’07 is to contend for an SEC Title. That might be a bit far fetched, but the talent on hand certainly leads me to believe that they’re capable of at least reaching a Bowl game for the first time in seven years.

With VTECH on deck in Baton Rouge next week, the Tigers full attention might not be on the opponent at hand and that’s usually a recipe for disaster. I’m by no means calling for a SU win here by the home team, but I firmly believe they’re capable of staying within this lofty spread. It’s the first week of the season, and anything can happen. Grab the points with the Bulldogs as they put forth a respectable effort vs. an LSU club many have destined to play in the National Championship.

[Bluemyboy]

Dave Malinsky
NFL X 6* San Fran 49rs/San Diego Chargers under 38

Dave Cokin
NFL X GOY : Tennessee Titans -7

Wild Bill
Week 4, Aug 30-Sept 1
NFLX week 4

Under 36 Giants-Pats (1 unit)
Giants +4 1/2 (1 unit)
Eagles -2 1/2 (5 units)
Jaguars -3 1/2 (2 units)
Under 37 Browns-Bears (1 unit)
Browns +4 (1 unit)
Under 37 Dallas-Vikings (1 unit)
Vikings +2 (1 unit)
Over 37 Packers-Titans (1 unit)
Tampa -3 (1 unit)
Under 37 Houston-Tampa (1 unit)
Under 37 Chiefs-Rams (1 unit)
Over 36 Steelers-Carolina (1 unit)
Steelers +5 (4 units)
New Orleans +1 1/2 (2 units)
Over 39 1/2 Arizona-Denver (2 units)
Under 34 Ravens-Falcons (1 unit)
Indy +5 1/2 (2 units)
Under 40 1/2 Indy-Bengals (1 unit)
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[Bluemyboy]

Wunderdog
Game: Tulsa at U L Monroe (Thursday 8/30 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: U L Monroe +3


Charlie Weatherby may have his best team yet at ULM this year. He has yet to have a winning record at ULM, but this season should change and a Bowl bid is not out of the question. The Warhawks return everyone on offense and as such should easily eclipse the 21.8 points per game they averaged last season. This team lost just 16 letterman and bring back most of the key players. They finished 4-8 last season, but lost five games by a total of 15 points, so they certainly aren't that far away. With the experience on the field this season, most of those five close games should go in the win column in 2007. Todd Graham takes over at Tulsa and expectations are always high. The Golden Hurricane have managed three Bowl bids in the last four years, but this perhaps may be a transition season. Tulsa returns just four starters and six players on defense. With a new coach, new system, and lots of young players, it may take time to develop. ULM, a team that for once has a lot of weapons and experience, is catching a young Tulsa team at the right time. We like the home dog here to pull the surprise.

[Bluemyboy]

Boston Herald Free Picks
Detroit w/Bonderman (lost yesterday)

Mets w/Hernandez (won yesterday)

[Bluemyboy]

Digger Phelps

5* Detroit Tigers

3* Boston Red Sox

Record this week is 2-5

[Bluemyboy]

WUNDERDOG COMP NFLX PLAY

Game: New York Jets at Philadelphia (Thursday 8/30 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: New York Jets +2.5

Andy Reid was 10-18 in preseason games coming into this year. The Eagles have gone 1-2 thus far to drop him to 11-20 lifetime (that's 35%). Yet the Eagles are favorites here? Hmmm. But it gets better! Andy Reid said after the Pittsburgh game that his starters would not play at all against the Jets this week! He has had a history of no-show performances in the annual exhibition closer vs. the Jets. These teams have met in the finale for the past four years and the Eagles have lost all of them! The Jets have covered five of the last six in this matchup in the preseason. With Reid's history and emphasis here on getting out healthy and playing no starters, the favorite role in this one makes no sense. The Jets are another story. Mangini is now 4-3 in preseason games. His team is putting up points, a sign that they are trying harder than most teams to win in the preseason. Kellen Clements has really been pushing Chad Pennington and it is certainly a reason they have put up 20+ points in every game. We will ride the Jets here to win on the road as a dog.

[Bluemyboy]

Tony Mathew's Free MLB Selection for August 30, 2007.

Matchup: Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers

Selection: Texas Rangers (-145)

Explanation: We will side with the Texas Rangers as they face-off against the Chicago White Sox in Thursday's MLB contest.

The Chicago White Sox will use starting pitcher John Danks. John Danks has had a poor overall season (5.51 ERA), as well as has been having huge pitching problems as of late (10.66 ERA in his last 3 starts). With that said, we see the Texas Rangers scoring many easy runs tonight.

The Texas Rangers will use starting pitcher Kevin Millwood. Kevin Millwood has been up/down this season, however, as of late has been pitcher great. In fact, Kevin Millwood has a 2.38 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Kevin Millwood having another solid start tonight.

The Chicago White Sox are 3-14 in their last 17 games as an underdog, and we see them getting beat once again tonight.

Take the Texas Rangers!
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[Bluemyboy]

LT Profits

Houston Texans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers u37.0 (-110)
Thu Aug 30 '07 8:00p

Houston Texans/Tampa Bay Bucs Under 37

Both the Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have surprisingly scored quite a few points this preseason, but we feel that has resulted in an artificially inflated total here.

As is the norm, both teams will rest many of their regulars here in Week 4, although Houston will be taking a look at their muddled running back situation. This should mean a lot of carries for Ron Dayne, Samkon Gado and Wali Lundy, as most likely only two of these backs will make the roster as backups to Ahman Green. Lots of carries means lots of time of the clock, and the fact that the Buccaneers have good depth on defense should keep breakaway runs to a minimum.

Now as usual, most of Tampa Bay’s offensive success this preseason has been set up by the defense giving the offense short fields to play with. However, we do not expect that to be the case here with the Texans playing more of a ball controlled keep-away offense. Thus the Bucs will need sustained drives to score, and they have a tough enough time doing that with their starting unit, let alone their reserves.

The Under is now an amazing 24-7 the last 31 times that the Buccaneers have been preseason favorites, and given the way we expect this game to play out, look for that trend to continue.

NFLX Pick: Texans/Buccaneers Under 37

[Bluemyboy]

Nick Parsons

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, August 30th, 10:00 P.M. EST EST

The 2-1 Oakland Raiders travel to Seattle to take on the 2-1 Seahawks in the final game of the preseason. The Raiders are coming off a 20-10 win over the Rams while the Seahawks destroyed the Vikings in their Week 3 matchup at home, 30-13. In Week 4, starters see very limited action, as will be the case in this game. So with the battle of the backups about to commence, who has the edge in this game? In my opinion it’s the home team behind Seneca Wallace; he was 5-of-7 for 77 yards in the second half including a 57-yard touchdown pass to Ben Obomanu last week. Wallace played very well last year during the regular season when Matt Hasselbeck went down and should be considered one of the top back up QB’s in the entire league. QB Josh McCown looked shaky last week for the Raiders and will be bothered by the Seahawks secondary in what is supposed to be a rainy Thursday in the great Pacific North West. What may have been the most impressive play last week for the Seahawks was when the backup defense put on a brilliant goal line stand. The Vikings had first-and-goal from the 4 and moved to the 1 on the first play. They then were forced backward, as Niko Koutouvides and C.J. Wallace led the charge for two consecutive losses and ultimately an interception in the end zone from rookie Will Herring. As with all of my preseason selections this year, this play comes down to who is more motivated; in front of the hometown crowd with the superior pivot playing for most of the game, this line should be much higher than it is.

Play on: Seattle
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[Bluemyboy]

Chuck Franklin

Utah (+6') at OREGON STATE

The Utes have Brian Johnson back behind center and with him leading the way and a seriously deep set of wide receivers, Utah will give the Beavers all they can handle in Corvallis tonight. Oregon State head coach Mike Riley is not set at the QB position and will probably split time between Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao. That inconsistency will not work well against a disciplined Utah defense that can keep up with any of the Beaver receivers, especially since Sammie Stroughter just started practicing recently and most likely won't be playing.
Utah is money in the bank as a road dog. They are a hugely profitable 21-4-1 ATS in that situation and a very impressive 16-5-1 ATS as underdogs when facing a Pac 10 opponent. I'll take the points in this season opener for both teams and wouldn't be surprised to see the Utes pull off the upset win.

3* UTAH

[Bluemyboy]

WUNDERDOG COMP MLB PLAY

The dog is on a 6-1 run last two days - all dogs.

Game: Detroit at Kansas City (2:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Kansas City +141

The Tigers were sailing along with a 57-36 record and appeared poised to duplicate what they did last season. Then the wheels fell off. Over the last quarter of the season the Tigers have been one of the worst teams in baseball, posting a 14-26 record (.350)! For the answer, just look at their hurlers. The pitching has been the worst in baseball over this stretch, and yes, that includes worse than Tampa Bay! The Tigers staff has allowed 249 runs in their last 40 games good for 6.2 runs per game (RPG) for the opponent. Jeremy Bonderman has been struggling to say the least. Bonderman was 10-1 on July 13, but hasn't sniffed a win since and it is easy to see why. He has worked 47.2 innings, allowed 65 hits and 43 runs, on way to an ERA of 8.12 and a 0-6 mark. The Royals have been under the radar all season. They are assumed to be the doormat in the AL Central, but a look at their last half of a season. Covering 70 games, they are 37-33! They are also 21-14 (.600) in their last 35 at home. Leo Nunez has bolstered the staff with his call-up after the break. He has pitched the Royals to four wins in his five starts, and with an ERA of three, has been providing quality starts. Everyone remembers the Royals going to Detroit for the final series of the season and sweeping the Tigers. They have now won four of the last five played this year, and no reason to think things change today. We'll ride KC again tonight.

[Bluemyboy]

BURNS NFL PRESEASON THURSDAY

DENVER

Game: Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos Game Time: 8/30/2007 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Denver Broncos Reason: I'm laying the points with DENVER. Last week's result should provide us with the home team with the motivation advantage. The Cardinals played their best game of the preseason, leaving everything on the field in a last-minute two-point loss to best team (Chargers) from the 2006 regular season. The Broncos, on the other hand, were somewhat embarrassed - losing outright to the lowly Browns, their second straight loss of the campaign. Shanahan, who has always emphasized winning the Broncos' final preseason game, will be looking to atone for that defeat and to head into the regular season on a positive note. These teams met, at Arizona, in Week 4 of the 2006 preseason. The Broncos earned a 6-point road win in that contest which brings them 6-1 ATS the last seven years when playing their final road game of the preaseason. It also brought them to a sweet 21-5 SU and 18-8 ATS against NFC West opponents. Look for more of the same tonight as the Broncos improve to 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times they were coming off back to back preseason losses.
CAROLINA

Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers Game Time: 8/30/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Carolina Panthers Reason: I'm laying the points with CAROLINA. I feel that both the schedule and the "situation" are significantly in favor of the Panthers. For starters, the Steelers come off big win on a nationally televised Sunday Night game. That doesn't leave them much "turn-around" time for a Thursday road game. The Panthers, on the other hand, come off an embarrassing Thursday Night loss to the Patriots. That defeat was also nationally televised, which should serve as added momentum this evening. It also provides them with a few more days in between games. Additionally, the Steelers, who played in the H.O.F. game, are playing their fifth game of the preseason. Looking back to last season and we find that the two teams (Eagles and Raiders) which played in the H.O.F Game, lost their fifth game by a combined score of 50-24. We saw the same thing in 2005 when the Bears and Dolphins met at Canton and the two teams went on to lose their final (fifth) preseason game by a combined score of 36-23. The Panthers are 2-0 SU/ATS since 2005 when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Look for them to be the hungrier team this evening as they improve on those numbers with a convincing victory. *Main Event
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[Bluemyboy]

<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->BURNS COLLEGE FOOTBALL THURSDAY
KENT STATE

Game: Kent St. vs. Iowa St. Game Time: 8/30/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Kent St. Reason: I'm taking the points with KENT STATE. Yes, the Cyclones return the dangerous QB/WR combo of Bret Myer and Todd Blythe. However, with the exception of those two stars, ISU is extremely inexperienced offensively, particularly along the offensive line. The defense allowed more than 30 points per game last season and it also returns only five starters. The Golden Flashes, on the other hand, return a whopping 17 starters back from a team which was much improved last season. The Golden Flashes allowed a mere 20.1 points per game last season and the 158 passing yards which they allowed were the 12th fewest in the nation. That stout defense helped lead to a profitable 5-1 ATS record the last six times the Golden Flashes were listed as underdogs. Conversely, the Cyclones are an ugly 2-8 ATS the last 10 times they were laying points. The bottom line is that the Cyclones have a new coach and a ton of new players. Don't be surprised when they struggle against their more experienced guests. *CFB Underdog GOM
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[Bluemyboy]

BEN BURNS THURSDAY BASEBALL
RANGERS

Game: Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers Game Time: 8/30/2007 8:35:00 PM Prediction: Texas Rangers Reason: I'm laying the price with TEXAS. These pitchers are going in opposite directions. Millwood hasn't gotten much run support. However, he's managed a stellar 2.38 ERA and 1.191 WHIP over his last three starts. Millwood has averaged greater than 7 1/2 innings in those three starts. On the other hand, Danks has an awful 10.66 ERA and 2.054 WHIP in his last three starts. Not surprisingly, the White Sox were 0-3 in those games. They lost those games by a combined score of 23-5, most recently suffering a 10-1 beating. Danks has averaged less than five innings in those starts. That's noteworthy as White Sox relievers have an awful 5.45 ERA and 1.596 WHIP for the season. By comparison, the Texas bullpen has a solid 3.43 ERA for the year. The Rangers average five runs per game at home while hitting .269. The White Sox hit only .248 on the road (.244 overall) and average only 4.3 runs. Look for Millwood to finally get some run support as the Rangers step up and record the sweep, improving to 4-0 their last four games against southpaw starters. *Personal Favorite
YANKEES

Game: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Game Time: 8/30/2007 1:05:00 PM Prediction: New York Yankees Reason: Here come the NEW YORK YANKEES! Behind a dominant effort from Clemens, the Yankees followed up Tuesday's win with another victory yesterday. The Yankees are now an excellent 31-11 in their last 42 home games. With the momentum on their side and the pitching matchup in their favor, I expect them to complete the sweep this afternoon. Wang has beaten the Bosox the last two times he faced them, allowing three runs at Boston in July and two runs through 6 1/3 innings when he faced them here at New York in May. The Yankees won those two games by scores of 9-5 and 6-2. On the other hand, Schilling got rocked for 12 hits and six runs (5 earned) the last time that he pitched here. That gives him an ugly 6.63 ERA his last three visits to New York (Sox were 1-2) and dropped his team's record to 3-5 in his eight starts here this millennium. While the Red Sox are just 5-5 in Schilling's road starts, the Yankees are 9-4 when Wang has started at home. The Yankees are averaging a whopping 6.5 runs per game here for the year, while hitting better than .300 as a team. Conversely, the Red Sox are batting .267 on the road while averaging five runs per game. The Red Sox are also a money-burning 1-5 as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range this season. Look for the race in the AL East to get even more interesting as the Yanks complete the sweep.
UNDER orioles/d-rays

Game: Tampa Bay Devil Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Game Time: 8/30/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Orioles and Devil Rays to finish UNDER the total. After a wild 15-8 affair on Tuesday, yesterday's game snuck below the number. I'm expecting another well-pitched game that stays below the number this evening. Guthrie was dominant in his lone start vs. Tampa Bay, allowing only one run through six complete innings. Guthrie, who has a stellar 3.15 ERA as a starter, comes off back to back quality starts, allowing a combined five runs through 14 2/3 innings. Kazmir also comes off a quality outing, as he held Oakland to three runs on only five hits through eight complete innings. His 13 K's (and 0 walks) indicate how dominant he was. In his most recent road start, Kazmir allowed a a mere four hits through six shutout innings at Boston. That game would finish with a final score of 1-0 which brought the UNDER to 3-0 in Kazmir's last three road starts and a profitable 8-3 his last 11. It also marked the third time in Kazmir's last five road starts that his team failed to score more than one run. I'm expecting another low-scoring affair.
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[PlayMaker]

Dr. Bob Sports

These are all opinions...

And there are no best bets....

Miami-Ohio
Utah
ULM/Tulsa over
WYOMING
STANFORD
Arizona
UL Lafayette
Central Michigan
New Mexico