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[TonyDiamond]

Ravens at Bengals
I am really having a problem trying to justify how the linesmakers can make Cincinnati a 3 point favorite over the Ravens on Monday night. If you do a raw statistical line on this game, you would have the Ravens favored by 3. The Ravens 13-3 last year, the Bengals 8-8….Ravens defense has a 9.5 point differential to their advantage while Cincy has only a 1.2 point advantage on offense. Ravens held opponents to 12.6 points per while Cincy gave up 20.7. Cincy is 4-11 home in their last 15, Ravens are 12-4 versus Cincy in last 16. Ravens ranked 1 to 5 in almost every defensive category. I can’t see the home field advantage being that much of a difference in this one.
I was about to dump the house and car when I saw this line, but now I am a little scared of something I might be missing. I have fallen into these kind of traps before and I would love to have some feedback. Thanks

[datafreak]

Looks like the public really likes Cincinnati - and that -2.5 at Pinbet tells me they are welcoming the Cincinnati action, even though a higher % of people are on the Bengals, they aren't moving the line up to slow that influx of bets on Cincy down.

Early indications are that you are on the books' side on this one. I think the Ravens is the play. That said, I don't know about the house and the car. That ball is oblong and strange things happen. :)

[Volmania]

Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1

[Volmania]

When the Ravens have the ball
Rushing: It will be critical for the Ravens to control the game on the ground, keeping Carson Palmer on the sidelines. Baltimore's offensive line struggled a great deal during the preseason, but the unit was missing All-Pro left tackle Jonathan Ogden (toe).
This offensive line is young, but very talented. Expect the group to make great strides as the season progresses. Cincinnati's defense is notoriously soft up the middle and Baltimore will attack between the tackles with Willis McGahee.

Brian Billick likes to use two backs and two tight ends to pound his opponent. Cincinnati has a perfect defense to employ this tactic against. The Bengals will probably rotate their linebackers quite a bit, as they go six deep at linebacker, but none of the six has put a stranglehold on a starting position. Lewis will rotate his linebackers based on the situation. Steve McNair no longer offers a serious running threat, so the onus is squarely on McGahee to carry his new teammates.

Passing: In his first year as a starter, right tackle Adam Terry will be tested in pass protection. In fact, the Ravens may choose to keep a tight end on the right side on throwing downs. Robert Geathers is not a starter, but has developed into a very good pass rusher who could give Terry fits if the two are left alone on a regular basis.

Johnathan Joseph is an exceptional young cornerback who is poised to take his game to an elite level in 2007. He has the ability to lock down any of Baltimore's wide receivers and will likely do battle with Mark Clayton. Baltimore's offense is not a vertically inclined, but Joseph's weakness is his inability to defend the deep ball.

The Ravens will surely test him down the field. Baltimore has not utilized three-receiver sets much in recent years, but that could change this year with the emergence of Demetrius Williams. Williams is a tall, angular wide out with very good ball skills and the ability to get deep.

With improved talent on the backend, expect Lewis to blitz even more this season. He has never been bashful in this area and will also bring defensive backs to create big plays. The Bengals' defense is predicated on creating turnovers, but McNair is a cautious passer who will not take unnecessary risks.

The Ravens will also utilize McGahee in the passing game. He is a reliable option who can break a tackle and make a big play. McNair is a conservative decision maker for the most part and his deep arm strength is dwindling, so expect McGahee to see a lot of passes in the flat.

When the Bengals have the ball
Rushing: Running the ball successfully against the Ravens is not easy and Rudi Johnson will get little help from his backfield mates. While Johnson is a fine running back who is operating behind an excellent offensive line, he has dropped weight in the offseason and is beginning to show signs of aging. He might not be the workhorse he once was.

The Ravens are loaded in the front seven. Everyone knows about Ray Lewis, but the key players in Baltimore's front seven are defensive tackles Kelly Gregg and Haloti Ngata.

The Bengals rarely use a single-back set or place multiple tight ends on the field at the same time, so fullback Jeremi Johnson is a major part of the rushing attack. He is a very good athlete for such a big man, and is an exceptional lead blocker who can also carry the ball in a pinch. Johnson has had some epic battles against Baltimore's linebackers, Lewis in particular. Palmer utilizes play-action extremely well, but if the Bengals cannot establish the running game, this aspect of their offense will be wasted.

Passing: Palmer has outstanding ability as a passer. He can fit the ball into very tight windows and is deadly accurate. He also has a great feel for the rhythm of his receivers. Baltimore's defense is obviously very fast and aggressive, meaning Palmer must be very sound with his decision making.

While the Ravens are exceptional against the pass, the defense does have a glaring weakness Cincinnati is sure to exploit. Samari Rolle is a big-name cornerback, but his skills have certainly diminished. Rolle also has been fighting an ankle injury. With two great wide receivers in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the Bengals can take advantage.

The best way to slow down Johnson is to challenge him physically at the line of scrimmage. Chris McAlister is excellent at being physical and should fair reasonably well against Johnson, although this is a risky tactic.The Bengals will use quite a bit of their no-huddle offense to help dictate the pace of the game and keep Baltimore on its heels. Palmer is now very adept at running this kind of offense.

Even in the face of Baltimore's heavy rush, the Bengals will still use empty sets to stretch the defense horizontally and exploit the Ravens on the back end. Cincinnati's offensive line will have to deal with a variety of blitzes and zone pressures dialed up by Rex Ryan, who has established himself as one of the very best defensive coordinators in the league. Recognizing where pressure is coming from will be very difficult for Cincinnati's blockers.

Both of Cincinnati's offensive tackles missed significant time in the preseason and may not be 100 percent for this game. RT Willie Anderson (foot) and LT Levi Jones (knee) will be tested against Baltimore's fierce pass rush. Right defensive end Terrell Suggs and left defensive end Trevor Pryce form an exceptional pass rushing duo and will challenge Cincinnati's tackles with speed and power.

Special Teams

This has the makings of a very close divisional battle. Do not be surprised to see the game come down to a kick at the end. Both kickers will be up for the challenge. Matt Stover is a very established, veteran kicker who has come through in the clutch year after year. Shayne Graham's track record isn't quite as stellar, but he is among the best in business and has a bigger leg than Stover.