NFL News , Notes , Info

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Sunday, September 9th

Kansas City at Houston, 1:00 EST
Kansas City: 18-7 Under vs. conference opponents
Houston: 2-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season

Denver at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
Denver: 19-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Buffalo: 13-4 Over at home vs. AFC West opponents

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 EST
Pittsburgh: 11-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Cleveland: 12-4 Under in home games

Tennessee at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
Tennessee: 10-5 Over in the first half of the season
Jacksonville: 16-6 ATS at home in September

Carolina at St. Louis, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 1-7 ATS in the first month of the season
St. Louis: 7-3 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less

Philadelphia at Green Bay, 1:00 EST
Philadelphia: 24-10 ATS vs. NFC North opponents
Green Bay: 1-5 ATS as a home underdog

Atlanta at Minnesota, 1:00 EST
Atlanta: 12-4 Under in road games
Minnesota: 6-1 Under in the first month of the season

Miami at Washington, 1:00 EST
Miami: 1-6 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Washington: 19-8 Under in the first two weeks of the season

New England at NY Jets, 1:00 EST
New England: 8-2 ATS as a road favorite
NY Jets: 6-18 ATS at home in September

Tampa Bay at Seattle, 4:15 EST
Tampa Bay: 25-4 Under in the first two weeks of the season
Seattle: 11-26 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Chicago at San Diego, 4:15 EST
Chicago: 21-9 Under away vs. non-conference opponents
San Diego: 10-4 ATS in the first half of the season

Detroit at Oakland, 4:15 EST
Detroit: 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Oakland: 12-3 Under in home games

NY Giants at Dallas, 8:15 EST NBC
NY Giants: 8-3 ATS vs. division opponents
Dallas: 9-5 Under at home vs. NY Giants

** (TC) Denotes Time Change


Monday, September 10th

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 7:00 EST ESPN
Baltimore: 18-6 Under vs. conference opponents
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS in September

Arizona at San Francisco, 10:15 EST ESPN
Arizona: 0-6 ATS in September
San Francisco: 20-7 ATS on Monday nights

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Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
The SU winner in Chiefs/AFC South games is 10-0 ATS.
Kansas City is 11-5-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games.
The Chiefs are 5-10-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.
Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in their first road game of the season, since 2000.
The Chiefs are 3-6 ATS in their last nine non-divisional encounters.
Houston is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 September games.
The SU winner in Texans/AFC West games is 8-0 ATS.
The SU winner in Houston's September games is 15-1 ATS.
The Texans have produced 10 overs and 5 unders in their last 15 home games.
Houston is 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 games hosting non-divisional opponents.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Denver is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games.
The Broncos are 8-1 ATS when visiting non-divisional opponents.
Denver has produced 3 overs and 6 unders in their last nine road games.
The Broncos are 14-4 ATS before a matchup with the Raiders, since 1998.
Denver is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.
Buffalo has produced 1 over and 8 unders in their first game of the season, since 1998.
The Bills are 7-1 ATS at home before back-to-back road games.
Buffalo is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
Bills HC Dick Jauron is 10-1 ATS as a non-divisional home underdog.
Buffalo is 5-2 ATS vs. non-divisional AFC opponents.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh has produced 8 overs and 16 unders in their last 24 regular-season road games.
The Steelers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Browns.
Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in their first road game of the season, since 2000.
The Steelers are 6-3 ATS before back-to-back home games.
Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in their first divisional game of the season, since 2000.
Cleveland has produced 7 overs and 16 unders in their last 23 home games.
The Browns are 2-6 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1999.
Cleveland is 2-9 ATS as a divisional underdog of seven points or less.
The Browns are 8-16 ATS in their last 24 divisional encounters, since 2003.
Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in the first of back-to-back home games.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
The SU winner in this series is 22-2 ATS.
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in their last six divisional encounters.
The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
Tennessee is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games.
The Titans have produced 14 overs and 3 unders in their last 17 games.
Jacksonville is 6-1 ATS in their first home game of the season, since 2000.
The Jaguars are 12-4-2 ATS in the first of back-to-back home games.
Jacksonville has produced 6 overs and 3 unders in their last nine home games.
The Jaguars are 8-0 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1999.
Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.

Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams
Carolina has produced 5 overs and 1 under when visiting NFC West opponents.
The Panthers have fashioned a record of 1 over and 10 unders in their first game of the season, since 1996.
Carolina is 78-9 ATS when they win SU.
The Panthers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 road games.
Carolina is 3-7 ATS in their first game of the season.
St. Louis is 2-5 ATS in the first of back-to-back home games.
The Rams have produced 6 overs, 3 unders and 1 push in their last 10 home games.
St. Louis is 3-9-1 ATS before a matchup with San Francisco.
The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings with the Panthers.
St. Louis is 2-6-1 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1998.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers
Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with Green Bay.
The Eagles are 6-3 ATS in their first road game of the season, since 1998.
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS on the road before back-to-back home games.
The Eagles are 6-3 ATS in their last nine road games.
Philadelphia has produced 6 overs and 2 unders in their last eight road games.
Green Bay is 6-72 ATS when they lose SU.
The Packers are 2-6 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1999.
Green Bay is 1-7 ATS in their first home game of the season, since 1999.
The Packers are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 non-divisional contests.
Green Bay has produced 4 overs, 8 unders and 1 push in their last 13 home games.

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta has produced 6 overs and 17 unders and 1 push in the last three years on the road.
The Falcons are 13-5 ATS as an underdog in their first game of the season.
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups with Minnesota.
The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1998.
Atlanta has produced 1 over and 8 unders in their last nine games.
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their first game of the season, since 2002.
The Vikings are 2-8 ATS before back-to-back road games.
Minnesota has produced 6 overs and 2 unders in their last eight games.
The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS when hosting non-divisional opponents.

Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins
Miami is 7-1 ATS when visiting NFC opponents.
The Dolphins are 13-4 ATS in their first road game of the season.
Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups with Washington.
The Dolphins have produced 5 overs and 10 unders in their last 15 games.
Miami is 7-3-1 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1996.
Washington is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 matchups with AFC opponents.
The Redskins are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games.
Washington has produced 5 overs and 15 unders in their last 20 home games vs. non-divisional opponents.
The Redskins are 10-4-1 ATS before a matchup with the Eagles.
Washington is 2-6-1 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1998.

New England Patriots at New York Jets
New England has produced 6 overs and 12 unders in their last 18 divisional encounters.
The Patriots have produced 8 overs and 2 unders in their first game of the season, since 1997.
New England is 9-3-2 ATS as a favorite in their first game of the season.
The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups with the Jets and 8-0 ATS in their last eight visits.
New England is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 road games.
The host in this series is 2-14 ATS.
New York is 10-20 ATS in their last 30 home games in September.
The Jets are 2-9 ATS in their first home game of the season, since 1996.
New York has produced 9 overs, 3 unders and 1 push in their last 13 home games.
The Jets are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks
Tampa Bay has produced 7 overs and 16 unders on the road, since 2004.
The Buccaneers have produced 10 overs and 20 unders in their last 30 non-divisional encounters, since 2004.
Tampa Bay is 3-6 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1998.
The Buccaneers are 1-4-2 ATS before a matchup with the Saints.
Tampa Bay is 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games.
Seattle is 3-8 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1996.
The Seahawks are 12-6 ATS as a home favorite, since 2005.
Seattle is 4-0 ATS in their first home game of the season, since 2003.
The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-divisional encounters.
Seattle is 7-2 ATS when hosting non-divisional opponents.

Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers
Chicago is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in September.
The Bears have produced 9 overs and 2 unders in their last11 non-divisional encounters.
Chicago has produced 2 overs and 10 unders in their last 12 visits to AFC teams.
The Bears are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 encounters with AFC opponents.
Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS before back-to-back home games.
San Diego has produced 7 overs and 3 unders in their last 10 non-divisional encounters.
The Chargers are 9-3 ATS vs. NFC opponents, since 2004.
San Diego is 7-2 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1998.
The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings with Chicago.
San Diego is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders
Detroit has produced 7 overs and 2 unders in their last nine road games.
The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raiders.
Detroit is 2-6 ATS as a road underdog.
The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1997.
Detroit is 2-7 ATS before a matchup with Minnesota.
Oakland has produced 2 overs and 6 unders in their last eight home games.
The Raiders have a mark of 2 overs and 10 unders before a matchup with the Broncos.
Oakland is 7-2 ATS in their first game of the season when it's played at home.
The Raiders are 4-8 ATS as a home favorite, since 2003.
Oakland is 63-13 ATS when they win SU.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
New York has produced 9 overs, 1 under and 1 push in their last 11 road games.
The Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 divisional encounters.
New York has produced 6 overs and 2 unders in their last eight divisional matchups.
The Giants are 6-2 ATS in their first road game of the season, since 1999.
New York is 6-3 ATS in their last nine situations as a road underdog.
Dallas is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 divisional encounters.
The Cowboys are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Giants.
Dallas is 6-3 ATS in their first home game of the season, since 1998.
The Cowboys have produced 2 overs, 8 unders and 1 push in their last 11 games hosting divisional opponents.
Dallas is 3-6 ATS when hosting divisional opponents.

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Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with Cincinnati.
The Ravens are 5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Baltimore is 3-6 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1998.
The Ravens are 3-6 ATS when visiting divisional opponents.
Baltimore has produced 3 overs and 7 unders in their last 10 road games.
The favorite in this series is 6-1 ATS.
Cincinnati is 8-21 ATS at home in September.
The Bengals are 7-15 ATS vs. divisional opponents in September.
Cincinnati is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 divisional encounters.
The Bengals have produced 8 overs, 4 unders and 1 push in their last 13 home games.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Arizona has produced 18 overs and 6 unders in their last 24 road games, since 2004.
The Cardinals have produced 14 overs and 7 unders in their last 21 divisional encounters.
Arizona is 1-5 ATS vs. NFC opponents on Monday nights.
The Cardinals are 18-81 ATS when they lose SU.
Arizona is 2-7 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1998.
San Francisco is 16-5-1 ATS as a home favorite on Monday nights.
The 49ers are 10-3 ATS vs. divisional opponents on Monday nights.
San Francisco is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 divisional encounters.
The 49ers are 7-3 ATS at home before back-to-back road games.
San Francisco has produced 3 overs and 6 unders in their last nine games

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1) New England Patriots - Getting the new wideouts up to speed and having good health throughout the preseason are the keys.
2) San Diego Chargers - LT is skipping the preseason, while HC Norv Turner looks to put his stamp on this team.
3) Chicago Bears - Getting OLB Lance Briggs into camp was key, as is keeping an aging O-line healthy.
4) Indianapolis Colts - The loss of DT 'Booger' McFarland for the season is a big blow. LT Tarik Glenn's sudden retirement puts the pressure on rookie LT Tony Ugoh.
5) Baltimore Ravens - This team looked good in their first game and there is a real sense of urgency with this group to win this year.
6) Denver Broncos - There is a lot of new 'D' players to integrate into the defense but all signs point to a solid defensive group.
7) Seattle Seahawks - Moving WR Deion Branch to flanker will give him a lot of chances to prove he was worth a 1st-round pick.
8) New Orleans Saints - They didn't look prepared in their loss to the Steelers but it is early. Also, this year's rookie crop has underwhelmed to this point.
9) Philadelphia Eagles - Philly needs their front seven to stop the run and look for Def. Co. Jim Johnson to drive that point home all preseason. The season-ending losses of DE Jerome McDougle (not a factor) and RB Ryan Moats (so-so) aren't huge.
10) Dallas Cowboys - The acquisition of FS Ken Hamlin makes many facets of the defense better. Good battle at RB between Julius Jones and Marion Barber III.
11) Cincinnati Bengals - Lots of time is being spent getting the defense to just play better as a unit. The loss of rookie RB Kenny Irons for the season hurts.
12) Pittsburgh Steelers - Really looked like a team ready to play in the victory over the Saints. An impressive stable of young backs means RB Kevan Barlow probably won't stick.
13) Carolina Panthers - The trade for S Chris Harris helps lessen the loss to retirement of S Mike Minter. Still need to sort out starters at RB and WR.
14) Jacksonville Jaguars - Added aging S Sammy Knight to beef up a very young group. Still need to find two capable starting receivers.
15) New York Jets - Finally signed 1st-round pick CB Darrelle Revis but he's way behind the learning curve. The loss of RB Thomas Jones for a few weeks certainly doesn't help.
16) St. Louis Rams - Really need to find some run-stuffing DTs to help the defense take pressure off what could be an elite offense.
17) San Francisco 49ers - RB Frank Gore's broken right hand is a blow but he'll probably play in Week 1. Integrating two new starting receivers will take time.
18) New York Giants - They're preparing for life without DE Michael Strahan but he could be back after training camp ends. The move of former DE Matthias Kiwanuka to SLB is a done deal and he won't move back, even if Strahan retires.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - QB Jeff Garcia is taking a while to learn HC Jon Gruden's offense but he's putting in the time and will learn it. They're counting on some big contributions from young players on defense.
20) Green Bay Packers - The loss of RB Vernand Morency for the near future puts rookie RB Brandon Jackson on the hot seat. The defense is progressing nicely and may have to carry the club for the near future.
21) Arizona Cardinals - The loss of OT Oliver Ross and DE-OLB Chike Okeafor to potential season-ending injuries hurts this club. It does give the RT job to 1st-round rookie Levi Brown and OLB Darryl Blackstock will get a chance to prove he can play in this league.
22) Kansas City Chiefs - It looks like RB Larry Johnson will be in camp soon but the O-line still needs to round into form. The defense could be the strength of the club and when was the last time that happened?
23) Minnesota Vikings - Still need QB Tarvaris Jackson to assume control of the offense. The return of some injured players from last season has strengthened the defense.
24) Buffalo Bills - The offense could be dynamic if rookie 1st-round RB Marshawn Lynch becomes Thurman Thomas Lite. The defense still has questions.
25) Atlanta Falcons - what's harder to imagine: QB Michael Vick playing for the Falcons again or QB Joey Harrington leading them to the playoffs? Oh, by the way, RB Warrick Dunn is hurt and out for a month.
26) Tennessee Titans - Still need some receivers to emerge. The secondary could be a surprise, but what kind is the question?
27) Detroit Lions - The offense is progressing nicely but the defense still has some work to do. Look for RB Tatum Bell to be the starter in week 1.
28) Miami Dolphins - The defense will have to carry the team while the offense sorts itself out.
29) Oakland Raiders - The signing of QB Daunte Culpepper has helped lessen the blow of 1st-round QB JaMarcus Randall's holdout. The defense could be even better this season.
30) Washington Redskins - The running game has been hampered by questions at LG and other injury concerns along the line.
31) Houston Texans - This team has the potential to move up but need a lot of big years from young players.
32) Cleveland Browns - Injuries have reared their ugly head again with this snake-bitten club. Still need to be aggressive to make the 3-4 work.

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Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL profits.

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SUNDAY, SEPT. 9
Denver at Buffalo: The Broncos have been a solid road favorite over the past four seasons, notching an 11-7-1 mark ATS. Buffalo is 7-1 ATS at home preceding back-to-back road games. The Bills head to Pittsburgh and New England after hosting Denver.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The Steelers have covered seven straight games against the Browns, including four in a row in Cleveland. The Browns are 2-9 as division underdogs of seven points or less. The line opened with Pittsburgh favored by a field goal.

Philadelphia at Green Bay: The Eagles have covered seven of their last eight meetings with the Packers, including three straight in Green Bay. The Packers are 1-7 as a home underdog the last four years, including 0-5 last season, and are 1-7 ATS their last eight home games against non-conference foes.

Kansas City at Houston: Houston is 1-5 ATS at home against a non-division opponent in September but Kansas City is a pathetic 1-10 ATS as a non-conference road favorite. The Chiefs opened as a 1-point underdog but the line could switch so watch this one closely.

Tennessee at Jacksonville: Jacksonville has covered eight consecutive openers. Forget about the money line; the straight up (SU) winner also is 22-2 ATS in the Tennessee-Jacksonville series.

Atlanta at Minnesota: The Falcons are 4-1 ATS their last five games versus the Vikings, including 3-1 their last four trips to Minnesota. Atlanta is 16-10-1 ATS in season openers since 1980.

New England at New York Jets: The Patriots have covered five of their last six encounters with the Jets and have a streak of eight straight pointspread wins against them in New York. New England also is 16-8 ATS versus the division the past four years.

Carolina at St. Louis: The Panthers have covered the spread four games in a row against the Rams. Since 1980, St. Louis is 7-13-1 ATS as an opening game favorite.

Miami at Washington: The Redskins have covered four of their last five meetings with the Dolphins but Miami also is 7-1 ATS on the road versus non-conference foes.

Detroit at Oakland: The Raiders have covered four of their last five meetings with the Lions. Since 1980, Oakland is 7-2 ATS in home openers.

Chicago at San Diego: The Bears have covered four straight games versus the Chargers and own the AFC West with a remarkable 17-2-1 record ATS the last 20 meetings. Chicago is 7-3 ATS as an underdog in season openers the last 27 years.

Tampa Bay at Seattle: The Buccaneers are 1-7 ATS versus non-conference opponents their last eight and are 1-3 ATS versus the Seahawks their last four meetings. Seattle is 17-3 ATS in September versus less than .500 SU competition.

New York Giants at Dallas: The Giants are undefeated (5-0-1 ATS) in their last six games against the Cowboys and are 3-1-1 ATS versus them in Dallas. The Cowboys are 6-7 ATS as a favorite on opening day.

MONDAY, SEPT. 10
Baltimore at Cincinnati: The Bengals have covered four of their last five against the Ravens. The favorite in the Ravens-Bengals series (Cincinnati opened -3) is 6-1 the last seven games. Baltimore is 13-11 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 2-4 as a road underdog. Cincy is 5-10 ATS on MNF, including 1-1 as a home favorite.

Arizona at San Francisco: The Cardinals have covered three of their last four meetings with the Niners. Since 1980, Arizona is 2-6 ATS on Monday Night Football, but has never been a road underdog. With an ATS record of 33-13-1, San Francisco is the champion of MNF. The Niners are a superb 16-5-1 in the role of home favorite.

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Please note: These trends are sorted by net units above zero, not the likelihood of the angle occurring again in 2007.

1. (+16.7 Units) On extreme Week 1 Totals (35 or less, 45 or higher), UNDER’s have hit at a 31-13 rate for 70.4%
’07 Plays: New Orleans-Indianapolis Under 50.5, Arizona-San Francisco Under 45

2. (+12.4 Units) Home Favorites that had a worse SU record than their opponent the prior year are 19-6 ATS (76.0%) in Week 1 since ‘97
’07 Plays: Houston –2.5, Minnesota –3, Oakland –1.5, Cincinnati –3

3. (+11.9 Units) On posted totals in the 40-44.5 range, the OVER has converted at a 62.5% rate (35-21)
’07 Plays: Carolina-St Louis Over 41.5, Philadelphia-Green Bay Over 43.5, New England-NY Jets Over 41, Tampa Bay-Seattle Over 41.5, Chicago-San Diego Over 42.5, NY Giants-Dallas Over 44, Baltimore-Cincinnati over 40.5

4. (+10.8 Units) Road Underdogs of greater than a field goal but less than a touchdown (-3.5 to –6.5) have won at a 24-12 mark for 66.7% over the last 10 seasons.
’07 Plays: New Orleans +6, Tennessee +6.5, Tampa Bay +6, Chicago +5.5, NY Giants +5

5. (+5.0 Units) Double-digit Underdogs in the first week of the regular season are 5-0 ATS (100%) since ’97.
’07 Plays: NONE

6. (+4.9 Units) Road Underdogs facing an opponent who finished .500 or worse a year ago are 28-21 (57.1%) on opening weekend since ’97.
’07 Plays: Kansas City +2.5, Tennessee +6.5, Atlanta +3, Miami +3, Detroit +1.5, Arizona +3

7. (+4.3 Units) Non-Divisional Conference Home Underdogs are on a nice run of 12-7 ATS for 63.2% success.
’07 Plays: Buffalo +3.5, Green Bay +3

8. (+4.1 Units) Opening week Home Favorites facing an opponent who was .500 or better last season have converted on 25 of 44 opportunities, for 56.8%.
’07 Plays: Indianapolis –6, Houston –2.5, Jacksonville –6.5, San Diego –5.5, Dallas –5, Cincinnati –3

9. (+3.8 Units) Divisional Home Favorites of –1 to –3 points in Week 1 are 6-2 ATS (75.0%) in their last eight opportunities.
’07 Plays: Cincinnati –3, San Francisco -3

10. (+3.3 Units) Divisional Road Favorites in Week 1 own a 11-7 ATS (61.1%) record since ’97.
’07 Plays: Pittsburgh –4.5, New England –6.5

11. (+3.3 Units) Road Favorites in Week 1 facing a team that was .500 or better last season are on a 11-7 ATS (61.1%) run.
’07 Plays: Philadelphia -3, New England –6.5

12. (+3.3 Units) Divisional Road Favorites in Week 1 own an 11-7 ATS (61.1%) record since ’97.
’07 Plays: Pittsburgh –4.5, New England –6.5

13. (+3.0 Units) Overall, Home Underdogs of greater than a field goal - 3.5 points or more - are 14-10 ATS (58.3%) over the last 10 seasons in Week 1.
’07 Plays: Cleveland +4.5, NY Jets +6.5

14. (+3.0 Units) When a Week 1 Home Underdog had a better SU record the prior year, that team is 3-0-1 ATS (100%)
’07 Plays: NONE

15. (+2.9 Units) Home Underdogs facing an opponent that had a losing record in the prior season are on a 4-1-1 ATS run (80%)
’07 Plays: NONE

[CaPPiNg TiGeRz]

The Jets carry an 11-5 ATS run into the new season.

The Patriots are 31-6 SU, 22-14 ATS at home during the regular season.

Miami is 9-23 ATS at home!

Pittsburgh is 18-8 SU, 16-10 ATS on the road the last three years!

The Ravens are 26-8 SU, 20-12-2 ATS at home since 2003.

Baltimore is 25-4 SU/19-8-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2003.

The Bengals are 6-16 SU, 8-13-1 ATS as an underdog.

The Browns are 20-10-1 under the total under Romeo Crennell.

Indy is 25-3 SU, 16-11 ATS at home the last three years.

Jacksonville is 14-8-2 ATS their last 24 home games.

San Diego is 16-8 SU, 16-6-2 ATS on the road.

Denver is 25-9 SU/13-19-1 ATS at home the last four seasons.

KC is 25-7 SU, 21-11 ATS at home the last four seasons.

Oakland is 20-43-1 ATS the last 4 years.

Philadelphia is 33-18 SU, 31-19 ATS on the road the last 6 years!

Giants are 14-19 SU, 13-19-1 ATS their last 33 home games.

Washington is 30-19 "under" the total since Joe Gibbs arrived in 2004.

Chicago is 15-4 SU, 12-7 ATS at home the last 2 years.

The 2006 Bears were 13-4 "over" the total.

The Packers are 10-15 SU and 6-18-1 ATS the last three seasons at Lambeau Field.

Detroit is 2-13 SU, 6-9 ATS its last 15 road games.

The Saints are 9-16 SU, 7-17 ATS at home the last three seasons.

Carolina is 20-5 ATS its last 25 games as an underdog.

The Bucs are 31-18 "under" the total since 2004.

Seattle is 16-3 SU, 12-6 ATS at home the last two years.

The Rams are 10-16 SU/11-15 ATS on the road the last three seasons.

The 49ers are 6-26 SU/14-16-2 ATS on the road the last four seasons.

Arizona is 5-19 SU its last 24 road games.

The Cardinals are 30-15 OVER the total their last 45 games.