View Full Version : Sunday 9/16 FREE Service Plays
Volmania
09-11-2007, 04:35 PM
Post them here
FAIRWAY JAY
NFL
206 3.5* Tennessee Titans +7
212 3* NY Giants/Packers 'over' 38
212 2,5* NY Giants -2
213 2.5* Atlanta Falcons +10
220 3* Dolphins/Cowboys 'over' 40.5
222 3* Arizona Cardinals +3
231 3* Washington Redskins +7 (Mon
Rocketman
NY Jets @ Baltimore 4:15 PM EST
Play On: 4* Baltimore
Brandon Lang
SUNDAY
30 DIME
STEELERS
5 DIME
Packers
Titans
Vikings
HUDDLE UP SPORTS
500,000* Lock
Carolina -6'
Best Bets:
Cincinnati -6'
New Orleans -3'
Green Bay +1'
Green Bay/NY Giants over 37
COMPUTER PLAYS
1:00 p.m. Houston Texans + 6½
1:00 p.m. Cincinnati Bengals - 6½
1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Jaguars - 10 * * *
1:00 p.m. Green Bay Packers + 1½
1:00 p.m. Pittsburgh Steelers - 9½
1:00 p.m. St. Louis Rams - 3
1:00 p.m. Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3½
1:00 p.m. Indianapolis Colts - 7
4:05 p.m. Arizona Cardinals + 3
4:05 p.m. Detroit Lions - 3
4:05 p.m. Miami Dolphins + 3½
4:15 p.m. Baltimore Ravens - 10
4:15 p.m. Chicago Bears - 12
4:15 p.m. Oakland Raiders + 10
8:15 p.m. New England Patriots - 3½
SCOTT SPREITZER
BEST BET OF DAY
NEW ORLEAN SAINTS
Jimmy The Moose
THE MOOSE'S NFL "GAME OF THE WEEK"
New Orleans Saints
Lenny Del Genio
25* Division GOY
Minnesota Vikings
Dr. Bob
2-Star UNDER
**UNDER - DENVER (-9.5) 19 Oakland 12
Strong Opinion
San Francisco 23 ST. LOUIS (-3.0) 21
Strong Opinion
ARIZONA 23 Seattle (-3.0) 21
Strong Opinion
Kansas City 14 CHICAGO (-12.0) 20
Strong Opinion
NY Jets 13 BALTIMORE (-10.0) 19
Strong Opinion
UNDER - JACKSONVILLE (-10.0) 21 Atlanta
Strong Opinion
UNDER - Dallas (-3.5) 19 MIAMI 16
Brian Sherwood
CHICAGO –12 over Kansas City PINNACLE
The Bears went to the Super Bowl last year because of a defense that played brilliantly week in and week out. On occasion the offense put up a bunch of points because the opposition’s defense was on the field for way too long to keep the Bears in check. Well, this year that defense is better, quicker and even more dangerous. What the Bears did to the Chargers last week is something that no other team in the business will come close to duplicating this season. They made a truly potent offense look ordinary. Every play the Bears defense looked like there were 18 guys on the field. After playing San Diego, facing Herm Edwards’ offense will be in slow motion and you can triple that with the Bears at home. How is K.C. even going to score a point? The Chiefs offense is as comatose as any we’ve ever seen. Herm Edwards’ favorite offensive play is the hand-off-up-the–middle on 3rd and 8. His second favorite call is the 46-yard field goal. The Chiefs looked brutally awful in the pre-season and they looked worse in week one with a lousy 219 total yards. Daman Huard had two passes picked off by the Texans and that figure could be doubled against the relentless pressure of the Bears. No chance of the Bears opening 0-2 and after the first half these 12 points will seem like nothing. The Bears feast on weak teams and the Chiefs certainly fit the bill. Play: Chicago –12 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
New Orleans –3½ over TAMPA BAY PINNACLE
For wagering purposes the best thing that could’ve happened to the Saints was that they looked completely out of sync against the Colts to open the year in front of a huge, huge TV audience. They couldn’t score, they couldn’t defend and they were blown out. Call it an aberration, call it whatever you want but put no weight on it whatsoever. This year’s edition of the Saints is as good as last year’s and what happened to them on opening night could very well be a blessing in disguise. Throw in the fact that they’ve had 10 days to digest that pitiful performance and that they’re playing a team they can roll over and this price is an extremely low one indeed. The Bucs could be without Cadillac Williams because of a rib injury sustained last week and he rushed for 60 yards last week. The next closest guy ran for 11 yards and the Bucs were held off the scoreboard for the final three quarters. In conclusion, laying road points is almost always risky and Jeff Garcia is a gamer to be sure, however, the Saints are too good and will be too hungry to lose again against an inferior opponent like the one they’ll face here. Lay it. Play: New Orleans –3½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
PITTSBURGH –10 +1.02 over Buffalo PINNACLE
The Bills were out-gained last week to the tune of 470 to 184 so the last second win by the Broncos was somewhat misleading. One also has to question the current state of mind of the Bills after learning the news of fallen teammate Kevin Everett. Then we have the obvious lack of talent and experience on the Bills current roster and what we have here is a potential blowout. The Bills are loaded with new faces and they also have three defensive starters on the rack, which will make winning here a near impossibility. Meanwhile, the Steelers came ready to play this season. They looked extremely sharp last week and they took it to the Brownies right from the opening kick-off. This is not a step up in class for this fired-up Steeler team. This host took it in the chin last season and they can very likely smell a kill before this one even kicks off against a very rattled and vulnerable road squad. In addition, you have to love the preparation by new coach Mike Tomlin, who looked liked he’s been coaching for 15 years and the players fed off that too. The Steelers had six big sacks last week and they might double that output here. Man, this one could get very ugly indeed. Play: Pittsburgh –10 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND +7 +1.05 over Cincinnati SPORTSINTERACTION
Just like we warned you last week about playing Philadelphia over the Pack, we’re warning you about this one too. How does a team (the Browns) come out in week one and look that horrible? They had a QB controversy eight minutes into the season and it looked like they didn’t even practice during the whole pre-season. On one punt they committed four penalties. That’s how pathetic they looked and the oddsmakers are fully aware of how tough it’ll be for anyone to pull the trigger on the Brownies here. You’ll also notice that enticing opening line of -6½ line and not 7. We’ve always maintained that no team is as bad as they look and we trust the Brownies are in that category, as they’re not without talent. They have a very good offensive line that was embarrassed last week. They have talented and reliable receivers in Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow and wide receiver Joe Jurevicius. Derek Anderson is a good, young QB and has been handed the staring job and that’s another positive sign. The other side of that coin is that the Bengals played on Monday night and won 27-20 in a game they had no business winning. They were outplayed, out-gained and the only reason they won was because of six turnovers and a phantom offensive pass interference call in the last minute of the game. Still, they won and they beat a good team in doing so. As a result of week one the Bengals stock is up, the Brownies stock is way down and the result of those two combined is an inflated line that we can take advantage of. Throw in the always concerning Monday Night letdown angle and this one has danger written all over it for Bengal backer. Wait till game time if you’re on board, as a +7 is very likely forthcoming and we see that number already at SIA. Play Cleveland +7 +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
__________________
Rob Ferringo
NFL SELECTIONS
7-Unit Play. Take #215 New Orleans (-3.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Month. I do endorse this play up to -4.0. It is pretty stable at -3.5 in Vegas but is -3.0 at a majority of the top nine online sportsbooks and that is our basis. Believe me, this will be a double-digit win so an extra half-point shouldn't factor in.
Since 1997, teams that started the year with two straight road games are 20-13 ATS (60.6) in Week 2. Favorites in that role (as in, favored in the second game) are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent). Those road teams are 13-6 ATS off a loss in Week 1, and 5-1 when instilled as a favorite after that loss. New Orleans is devalued after that undressing on the Thursday night opener, but they were actually winning that game early and were tied, with the ball, to start the second half. Their talent puts them in the top one-third of teams in this league while Tampa is still a bottom-third club. The Tampa offense can’t put the type of pressure on a team that the Colts can and I think that the Saints are just itching to show that their defense is actually better this season than last. Also, if Brian Kelly doesn’t play the Bucs are short one of their best corners. That’s not a place you want to be when Drew Brees comes to town. Sean Payton is 7-3 ATS on the road and New Orleans has covered four of five against the Bucs. Finally, the moneyline on this game is anywhere from 25 to 50 cents heavy, and that's a strong indicator.
4-Unit Play. Take #221 Seattle (-2.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
This line is baffling. Until the Cardinals actually win some games they don’t deserve the respect that they get from the public, who is in love with them as a perpetual “sleeper team”. They aren’t. The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS (25 percent) in September home games and 12-19 ATS in September divisional games. They are 0-4 ATS since 2003 in divisional home games in September. The Cardinals are 3-16 straight up and 2-10 ATS in home openers, they are coming off a short week, and they are facing a team with superior talent. Arizona will start two rookie offensive linemen against a veteran Seattle front seven. I simply don’t see how they will be able to withstand the pressure, and I don’t see them stopping an offense that is very familiar with their personnel.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 37.0 Buffalo at Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Over the past two years the Steelers are an astounding 13-1-2 against the total when playing at home. Buffalo’s defense is decimated – I mean completely decimated – and will be without as many as five starters. The Steelers have been throwing the ball more with Bruce Arians and I see them completely devastating the Bills. Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS over the past five years with a line between 36.0 and 38.0. Further, the ‘over’ is 36-15-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 53 home games, 46-22-2 with them as a favorite, and 10-1-1 when they allow less than 15 points in the previous game. Buy onto 37 if you have to because it’s such a key number, but if the Bills can chip in 9-13 points this one won’t be in doubt at all.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 34.5 Kansas City at Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: I endorse this play at 35.0 because that merely brings the push into play.
Chicago went 9-1 against the number last year at home and is 9-3 in Soldier Field when the total is between 33.5 and 35.5. The ‘over’ is 10-2 in Chicago’s last 12 home games, 16-6-1 in their last 23 overall, and 14-3-1 as a favorite. The Bears lost two starters on defense last week and the Chiefs will be without two of their better defenders (Jared Allen and Patrick Surtain). These two teams combined for six points last week so there’s a naturally overreaction toward the ‘under’. But there’s a system at work here that’s hit at nearly 73 percent ‘over’ for the past six years. Chicago’s first four home games last year saw an average of 45.5 combined points and four of the Bears’ last five home openers have gone ‘over’. Rex Grossman is notorious for this – answering critics with a 250-yard, 4 TD eruption when everyone is calling for his head.
3-Unit Play. Take #206 Tennessee (+7.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Two very good systems at work here. First, play on a home dog that won its last game outright vs. an opponent who was playing at home. This system hit at roughly 61 percent over the past 15 years. Next, play on a division home dog that won straight up on as an away dog the previous week. This system has hit at 66 percent over the past 15 years. I couldn’t have been more impressed with how physical Tennessee was last week and I think they can make the Colts uncomfortable with their style. Also, road teams favored by 7.5 or more were 38-63 ATS (37.6 percent) between 1997 and 2006.
2-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+7) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
If the Panthers are an automatic play as an underdog (20-3-1 ATS) then they are also an automatic play against as a favorite. The Jake Delhomme-John Fox combo is 9-17-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-7 ATS at home, and 3-12 ATS as a favorite between 4.0 and 7.0. Remember, the Panthers were on the verge of losing in St. Louis before two Steven Jackson fumbles handed them 14 points. I don’t see Carolina running the ball they way they did against an awful Rams defense, and this is play blends two basic tenets that have been very successful recently – playing the underdogs (58 percent ATS in 2006) and playing the AFC vs. the NFC.
2-Unit Play. Take #232 Philadelphia (-6.5) over Washington (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 16)
Andy Reid is 10-1 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite and Donovan McNabb is 16-7 ATS following a loss. The Eagles are 17-10 ATS playing at home as a favorite after a loss and - the coup de grace - they are 11-3 ATS as home chalk on Monday Night Football. Is this line about 1-3 points to much? Yes. But you can't argue with results. Washington is 3-7 ATS on MNF and have a young quarterback making his first road start. In Philly. The 'Skins lost Jon Jansen and I think their offensive line will suffer, especially against the blitz-happy Eagles. Finally, Washington is 10-5 ATS when scoring 21 or more points and 12-22 ATS when they don't. I don't see it happening for them this week.
BONUS SELECTION
3-Unit Play. TEASER: Take Chicago (-1.5), Jacksonville (-0.5), and Pittsburgh (-0.5).
Note: This is a 3-team sweetheart teaser which just about all online books offer. However, since all customers that use "local guys" may not be able to play this game it's simply a bonus play. I initially liked all three teams to cover their normal lines, and favorites of 8.0 or higher in Week 2 went 5-1 last year. However, over the past 10 years faves of -8.0 or higher this early in the year are just 13-18 ATS (41.9 percent) and if you throw out last year they were just 8-17 ATS (32 percent). For this bet to lose, one of these three teams would have to lose outright, basically, and I simply do not see that happening. I see Chicago 34-10, Jacksonville 24-13, and Pittsburgh 38-9. It's 10-cent juice on this bet and I like it as an online bonus for those of you that like the action.
Larry Ness
Larry Ness' 20* Division GOY (perfect 5-0 start with NFL 20* plays in '07!)
My 20* play is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. Let's not overreact to the Saints' opening season loss at Indy. Last time I checked, the Colts were a pretty good team. The Saints have had a few extra days to get "their act together" and in the Bucs, they'll meet the perfect opponent (patsy?). Tampa Bay managed just two FGs in losing at Seattle last Sunday and Cadillac Williams was forced out after injuring his ribs. He says he'll play but so what? He was nowhere near the player LY that he was in his rookie season, topping 100 yards just twice, while gaining a total of only 101 yards in his last three games of '06 (2.4 YPC). Tampa Bay's OL is no bargain and unlike last year, when he stepped in to lead a playoff-ready team like the Eagles, 37-year-old QB Jeff Garcia now leads a team "hardly ready for prime time!" The Saints' D allowed 452 yards to the Colts (288 passing) but will have no such problems with Tampa's offense (NFC-low 211 points scored in '06). While Tampa can still play some D (far from great these days, as LY's 22.1 PPG attests), expect the Saints to bounce back from their Week 1 disaster. New Orleans led the NFL in total offense LY but did not score a single offensive TD vs the Colts. A team known for its "big plays," had just one play for more than 13 yards. Bress was terrible (28-41 for 192 YP with two INTs) , while Bush (12-38) and Deuce (10-38), did nothing! Tampa went 0-6 in its division last year, with the Saints winning 31-14 here in Tampa. Brees had 314 YP in that game and I look for a "return to form" for New Orleans in this game, against a very beatable foe. NFC South GOY 20* NO Saints.
POWER SWEEP NEWSLETTER
PRO SELECTIONS
4* Carolina (over Houston)
3* Detroit (over Minnesota)
2* Chicago (over Kansas City)
2* Oakland (over Denver)
OVER/UNDERS
3* Bills/Steelers Under 37
3* Packers/Giants under 39
3* Chiefs/Bears under 35.5
2* Falcons/Jags over 34.5
2* 49rs/Rams over 43
NFL POWER RATINGS PLAY
None This Week.
SYSTEM SECTION :
"Chopping Wood"
Play on any team that beat their Wk. 1 foe by 20 or more.
2001-2006 : 13-1-1 93%
This Weeks Play : Indianapolis
ROCKETMAN SPORTS
Rocketman Sports plays are rated 1-5 units
MLB
Atlanta @ Washington 1:35 PM EST
Play On: 1* Atlanta -130 (Hudson/Hill) Listed
Washington is 9-35 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Washington is 5-21 this year at home when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Atlanta is scoring 5.5 runs per game on the road this year. Atlanta bullpen has a 3.63 ERA overall this year and a 3.60 ERA on the road this season. Washington is scoring only 4 runs per game overall, 3.8 runs per game at home and 3.8 runs per game against right handed starters. Tim Hudson is 7-3 with a 3.37 ERA on the road this year. Hudson is 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA vs Washington since 1997. We'll play Atlanta for 1 unit today!
Pittsburgh @ Houston 2:05 PM EST
Play On: 5* Pittsburgh +105 (Maholm/Backe) Listed
Houston is 2-10 this year when playing in September. Houston is only batting .241 against left handed starters this year. Paul Maholm is 2-0 his last 3 starts. Brandon Backe has a 7.20 ERA at home this year. Pittsburgh is 10-3 overall vs Houston this year including 6-1 at Houston. We'll play Pittsburgh for 5 units today!
NASCAR
#48 Jimmie Johnson vs #20 Tony Stewart 2:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* #20 Tony Stewart -110
Tony Stewart has two wins, nine Top 5 finishes and ten Top 10 finishes in his 19 races in New Hampshire. Tony finished 2nd in this race last year while Jimmie Johnson finished 39th out of 43 drivers. Tony Stewart is the hottest driver the past 3 races with a 6.3 average finish and 2nd hottest over the past 10 races with an 8.8 average finish. We'll play Tony Stewart to finish ahead of Jimmie Johnson for 3 units today!
#17 Matt Kenseth vs #31 Jeff Burton 2:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* #31 Jeff Burton +100
Jeff Burton has four wins, seven Top 5 finishes and 12 Top 10 finishes in his 25 starts in New Hampshire. Jeff Burton has finished 7th the past 3 races in New Hampshire including this race last year. Matt Kenseth has never found victory lane at New Hampshire in Nextel Cup. We'll play Jeff Burton to finish ahead of Matt Kenseth for 3 units today!
NFL
Buffalo @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* Pittsburgh -9 1/2
To start with, Buffalo will be without 3 defensive starters for this game. Pittsburgh is 66-41 ATS since 1992 and 12-4 ATS last 3 years as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU and ATS at home against Buffalo since 1992 and 7-2 ATS overall vs Buffalo since 1992. Pittsburgh offense blasted Cleveland last week winning 34-7 and we see much of the same this week. Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS last 7 meetings with Buffalo including 4-0 ATS last 4 at home. We'll play Pittsburgh for 3 units today!
NY Jets @ Baltimore 4:15 PM EST
Play On: 4* Baltimore -10
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS last 3 years at home when the total is 32 1/2 to 35 points. NY Jets got blown out 38-14 last week and we see much of the same this week. Probably not as many points scored but all the points will be scored by Baltimore. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS vs NY Jets since 1992. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS last 6 meetings overall with NY Jets including 3-0 ATS last 3 meetings at home. Baltimore is 11-2 ATS off a straight up loss against an opponent off a straight up loss. Baltimore is 13-3 ATS as home favorites in September. Brian Billick is 13-2 ATS at home vs opponent off a double digit straight up loss. NY Jets are 4-18 ATS when the over-under line is less than 35 points. We'll play Baltimore for 4 units today!
Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Kelso
10 units Atlanta + 10 @ Jax
5 units Lions -3 v. Minn
5 units Bears -12 v. KC
5 units Chargers +3.5 @ Pats
Psychic Sports
NFL
2 units Miami +3.5
2 units San Francisco +3
2 units Tampa Bay +3.5
3 units Minnesota +3
3 units Houston +6.5
3 units San Diego +3.5
3 units Min/Det over 42
4 units Indi/Ten under 45.5
Pointwise Sports -
Rating 1-5 1 being best plays
NEW YORK GIANTS over Green Bay
RATING: 2
CHICAGO over Kansas City
RATING: 3
SAN FRANCISCO over St Louis
RATING: 4
TENNESSEE over Indianapolis
RATING: 4
CINCINNATI over Cleveland
RATING: 5
PlayMaker
09-16-2007, 06:59 AM
2-Star UNDER
**UNDER - DENVER (-9.5) 19 Oakland 12
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Oakland played pretty well offensively last week against a bad Lions’ defense, but the Raiders will have a tougher time against a Denver defense with two great cornerbacks. Daunte Culpepper takes over for an injured Josh McCown, but I rated those two quarterbacks the same heading into the season. Denver’s offense moved the ball well last week in Buffalo while the Raiders’ defense was abused by the Lions. Those results may reverse this week as the Broncos have averaged 5.3 yards per play or less in 5 of Jay Cutler’s 6 career starts and Oakland is still a good defensive team regardless of what happened last week. In fact, Oakland’s bad defensive effort in week 1 sets them up in a solid 102-50-5 UNDER situation this week and the Raiders have still gone Under in 11 of their last 13 games. My ratings predict a total of 38 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll go UNDER 38 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet. I’ll also lean with Oakland plus the points, as my ratings favor Denver by just 7 ½ points and the Broncos are only 5-21 ATS under coach Shanahan when favored by more than 5 points in the regular season following a victory.
Strong Opinion
San Francisco 23 ST. LOUIS (-3.0) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
The 49ers didn’t play well offensively last week, but their new defense looks very good. San Francisco held a decent Arizona attack to just 3.9 yards per play and only 3.4 yards per pass play as All-Pro cornerbacks Nate Clements and Walt Harris shut down the Cardinals receiving tandem while rookie LB Patrick Willis logged 11 tackles in his debut. San Francisco rebuilt their defense in the off-season and it looks like a better than average unit. The Rams offense is in trouble without big LT Orlando Pace protecting Marc Bulger and Pace appears to be out for the season after getting hurt last week. Pace missed some time last season and Rams’ quarterback Marc Bulger went from averaging 6.9 yards per pass play in 8 games with Pace protecting his back to just 5.6 yppp in the final 8 games of the season without Pace. Bulger averaged just 3.8 yppp last week and he’ll have a tough time finding open receivers this week against one of the best sets of corners in the league. The Rams’ defense was horrible last week against both the run (4.9 ypr) and the pass (7.4 yppp), so expect the 49ers to look much better offensively this week. My ratings favor St. Louis by just 1 point and the Rams are just 6-15-1 ATS the last 3 seasons as a favorite of 3 points or more, including 1-4-1 ATS last season in coach Linehan’s first year. San Francisco applies to a solid 52-20-1 statistical match- up indicator that is 10-1 ATS in week 2. I’ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
ARIZONA 23 Seattle (-3.0) 21
01:05 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Arizona had a tough time throwing the ball against the 49ers but their defense looked very good and the offensive is likely to bounce back with a better effort. Seattle looked better than I expected against the Bucs, but my ratings only favor the Seahawks by 2 points in this game. Arizona applies to a solid 187-106-10 ATS statistical indicator and that is certainly enough to get me favoring the upset. I’ll consider Arizona a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d make Arizona a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more (-115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion
Kansas City 14 CHICAGO (-12.0) 20
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Chicago is just 1-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 10 points under coach Lovie Smith and the Bears apply to a negative 32-72-3 ATS game 2 situation. Kansas City, meanwhile, applies to a solid 69-23-1 ATS situation. My ratings favor Chicago by 12 points, so the line is fair, but I’m going to resist making the Chiefs a Best Bet since the Bears are a perfect 5-0 ATS the week following a loss the last 2 seasons. That team trend is not nearly enough to cancel out the general situations so I’ll consider Kansas City a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more and I’d take KC in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more.
Strong Opinion
NY Jets 13 BALTIMORE (-10.0) 19
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Both teams will likely be without their starting quarterbacks, as Baltimore’s Steve McNair is expected to miss with groin injury while the Jets’ Chad Pennington is doubtful with an ankle sprain. Baltimore has the more experienced backup in Kyle Boller and Boller looked very good off the bench last season (9.8 yards per pass play on 58 pass plays) and was improving as starter before McNair replaced him last season. Kellen Clemens will get the start for the Jets if Pennington doesn’t play and Clemens has had no success in very limited action in his career. However, Clemens looked good in the preseason and many think he could be an improvement over Pennington (I’ll reserve judgment). New York applies to a very strong 63-10 ATS bounce back situation and the line appears to be fair (my ratings favor Baltimore by 10 ½ points). The Ravens, meanwhile, qualify in a negative 32-72-3 ATS game 2 situation but I’m not going to make the Jets a Best Bet since Baltimore is 33-14-2 ATS as a home favorite under Brian Billick, including 19-4-1 ATS hosting non-division teams. The team trend is not as strong as the general situations favoring Baltimore so I will consider New York a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UNDER - JACKSONVILLE (-10.0) 21 Atlanta 7
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
The Falcons managed just 4.0 yards per play and 3 points in their first regular season game with Michael Vick and today they face a Jaguars’ team that will be fired up defensively after allowing 284 rushing yards to the Titans last week. Jacksonville is traditionally one of the best teams in the league at defending the run and their defense allowed just 13 points despite the uncharacteristically poor run defense. Teams that score 7 points or less in their opener are not good bets in game 2, especially when facing teams that allowed 13 points or less in week 1 (6-21 ATS). My ratings favor Jacksonville by 13 points with a total of 36 points. I mention the projected points based on my ratings because this game applies to a 102-50-5 ATS early season UNDER angle. The total is only 34 ½ points, so some of the value of that angle is lost due to negative line value. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 34 points or higher.
Strong Opinion
UNDER - Dallas (-3.5) 19 MIAMI 16
01:05 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Cowboys coach Wade Wilson can’t be too excited about how his defense performed in last week’s 45-35 win over the Giants, so I expect a better effort from that unit this week. Miami always has a solid defense and they tend to play their best at home. In fact, Miami is 57-34 UNDER at home since 1996, including 6-2 UNDER last season and 24-8 UNDER when the total is 40 points or higher. This game also applies to a solid 102-50-5 UNDER angle. Unfortunately my math projects a total of 42 points (and favors Dallas by 3 points) so I’ll resist playing the UNDER as a Best Bet at the current line of 40 ½ points. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 40 points or higher and I’d make the UNDER a 2-Star Best Bet at 42 points or higher.
LT Profits
POD Chargers under
2* Packers
2* Bears under
Marc Lawrence
NFL SUPER SYSTEM GAME OF THE WEEK!
Cleveland +6
PPP
5* TENNESSEE
3* PITTSBURGH
3* New Orleans
Ben Burns
Non-Conf GOY - Miami +3
Shocker of the Year - Cleveland +6
Total of Month - Pats/SD Under 44
3 Game Total Package:
Oak/Denv Under 37
Det/Minn Under 41
StL/SF Under 43
ELITE SPORTS INVESTING
September 16, 2007
Sunday NFL Free Play
San Francisco at St.Louis
Play San Fran plus the points
One of the keys to this game is to not remain stubborn in your ways, and adjust to what you learn QUICKLY as the season goes on. Those who read this site regularly know that I was bullish on the Rams coming into the season. While I haven't given up on them by any means, the loss of Orlando Pace and a lackluster weak one performance calls for a quick downgrade. Some old bad habits reared their head in the loss to Carolina, as the Rams, despite their overhauled defensive line to rush for 186 yds. on 4.8 ypr. They are now also without starting CB Tye Hill, and since the secondary was the weak line already, you have to wonder how much they can sell out to stop Frank Gore here. The 49ers definitely weren't overly impressive against Arizona, but they found a way to get it done. They have the better defense here, and until St.Louis shows any ability to stop the run, I'll fade them as chalk against physical running teams like the Niners. San Fran by 1
GAMBLERS DATA
COMP PLAY SUNDAY
WNBA
Phoenix +3
Free Play Record 797 - 456 65%
Sebastian
NFL:
20* Tease 6.5 pts. Pitt/Hou
10* NO -3
20* Cle +7
20* Mia +4
20* Oak +10
10* Sea -3
100* Min +4
MLB:
100* Pirates
Wolkosky Milan
10* BILLS +10
10* BROWNS +7
10* FALCONS +10½
10* DOLPHINS +3½
10* RAIDERS +10
Chuck Franklin Sunday Plays:
2500♦ CHICAGO BEARS
1500♦ CAROLINA
1500♦ DETROIT
1500♦ SAN DIEGO
Michael Cannon
Money Train
Sunday's Early NFL Action...
30 Dime –
BENGALS ( Buy the ½ point if your line is -7 ½ )
5 Dime –
STEELERS
VIKINGS
Sunday's Late NFL Action...
10 Dime –
CHARGERS
Pure Lock NFL
Baltimore
Hilton Top 5 Consensus
#1 pick - 3 way tie: NYG, Cinn, Car
#4 Jax
#5 Sea
LT Profits
POD Chargers under
2* Packers
2* Bears under
Charlie Sports
sunday september 16, 2007.
nfl. houston @ carolina under 39 ( 500*)
nfl. bufflao+10 (30*)
nfl. cincinnati-7 (20*)
nfl. indianapolis-7 (20*)
nfl. minnesota+3 (10*)
nfl. tampa bay+3 (10*) free play
Worldwide-Syndicate (On a 1pp-5pp scale)
Carolina Panthers -7 Vs. Houston Texans
5pp.
Tennessee Titans +7.5 Vs. Indianapolis Colts
3pp.
St. Louis Rams -3 Vs. San Francisco 49ers
3pp.
Miami Dolphins +4 Vs. Dallas Cowboys
3pp.
New England Patriots Vs. San Diego Chargers U=46.5
3pp.
Baltimore/NY Jets Under 33.5
Northcoast
Marquee- New England
Doc's Sports WNBA
8-unit GOY
Detroit-2.5
O.C. Dooley
1-Unit on Tennessee Titans +7
Tennessee has COVERED 6 of the past 8 clashes with Indianapolis and beat them outright at home a year ago. Titans head coach Jeff Fisher is a positive 48-36 ATS in his career when GETTING points from the oddsmakers (Titans past two years 11-3 ATS as an underdog). Vince Young has WON 9 of his last 12 as a starting quarterback outright and last week the Titans controlled the football near 37 total minutes
Northcoast --
3.5 New Orleans
3 Chicago, GB under
Top Opinions: Jax, Pitt, NE, Oakland, Carolina
JIM HURLEY'S GOLD KEY FOOTBALL
Sunday, September 16, 2007
NFL
2*Dolphins (+3.5) Cowboys 4:05pm (ET)
2*Cardinals (+2.5) Seahawks 4:05pm(ET)
1*Jets (+10) Ravens 4:15pm(ET)
DAVID PAGE
PREMIUM PICKS
David Page
Atlanta Falcons +10.5 (-112)
Cleveland Browns +6.5 (+103)
New York Giants -1 (-109)
Tennessee Titans +7 (-106)
New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-104)
Under 39 (-105)
Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (-107)
Chicago Bears -12 (-108)
Volmania
09-16-2007, 08:46 AM
Service tracking consensus is now 2-0
We have a consensus play today, take a look.
FBZ Service Tracker (http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pELqHsmn0ySz2bVLgWCInCA)
BTW, I am still waiting on Root and Carolina. Dr Bob had nothing but opinions today.
Neri
4-jax, 3-ne, Colts Under
Score
400-chi
300-sf, Ne
Kelso
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25 unit play is on the Steelers
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