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Ben Burns NCAA

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Ben Burns' Pitching MISMATCH of the Month (38-19 L57!) -- Thursday
I'm playing on TORONTO. While the "Wildcard" spot is all but mathematically out of the question, the Jays should have a significant advantage on the mound this evening. Burnett has been brilliant lately. In his most recent start he pitched eight complete innings, while allowing just three hits and one run. That marked the fourth time in his six starts since returning from the disabled list that Burnett has allowed one run or less. In fact, he is 3-1 with a miniscule 1.90 ERA over that stretch! Note that he allowed three runs or less in all six of those starts, lasting greater than six innings in ALL of them. On the other hand, Kennedy lasted just five innings his last time out. Note that was just Kennedy's second career start and that he allowed seven hits and three walks. For the season, Burnett is 5-2 with an excellent 2.74 ERA and 1.027 WHIP at home for the season. Burnett is also 3-2 with a solid 3.73 ERA vs. the Yankees. In his lone start against them this season, he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing only four hits, en route to a 6-0 Toronto victory. While Burnett is backed by a Jays' bullpen which has a stellar 2.78 ERA and 1.046 WHIP at home, Kennedy will be supported by a Yankees' bullpen which has a poor 4.46 ERA and 1.545 WHIP on the road. Its worth mentioning that the Yankees could get looking ahead to tomorrow's big game/series vs. Boston and also that they haven't swept a series here in more than four years. Behind another strong start from Burnett, look for the Jays to rise to the occasion and avoid the sweep. *Pitching Mismatch of the Month

[PlayMaker]

Ness


My Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:05 ET. Is it suicide to go against the Yanks? Last night's 4-1 win gives them seven straight wins (longest active in MLB) and a 41-19 record since the break (best in MLB). Meanwhile, the Blue Jays enter this game on a five-game losing streak. Still, I like the matchup of AJ Burnett over the rookie Ian Kennedy too much to pass this one up. Burnett has been brilliant since coming off the DL on August 12 (missed nearly six weeks due to right shoulder pain). He's 3-1 with a 1.90 ERA in six starts (team is 4-2) but that's not the whole story. He's allowed just 21 hits (never more than FOUR in any one game!) in 42.2 innings, while posting a 38-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Rookie Ian Kennedy (1-0, 2.25 ERA) makes just his third career start for New York. Kennedy was impressive in winning his debut, allowing three runs (just one earned) and five hits over seven innings in a 9-6 victory over Tampa Bay on Sept. 1. The right-hander followed that up by lasting five innings and giving up two runs and seven hits in a 3-2 win at Kansas City last Friday. The Yanks don't "win 'em all" and here's won they DON'T win! Las Vegas Insider on the Tor Blue Jays.

[PlayMaker]

Big Al's Full Service Clients:

3* Reds
3* Rockies
3* Blue Jays

[PlayMaker]

Larry Ness' 15* MLB Total of the Week (30-10 since Aug 7 / 113-40 this season!)


My 15* play is on Tex/Oak Over at 10:05 ET. After winning 13 of 15 games to make a
.500 season a possibility, the Rangers (69-76) were cooled off with back-to-back
losses at Detroit, scoring one run in each game. However, I like the way the Rangers
are hitting the ball, as they had averaged 6.3 RPG while winning those 13 of 15
games. By the way, the team's 30 runs at Baltimore came BEFORE its 13-2 run! The
Rangers have won nine of 15 this season against the A's, including three straight
wins, in which they scored 24 runs. That matches up well vs Oakland's starters, who
are 2-9 with a 6.33 ERA over the last 18 games. Starting tonight is Chad Gaudin and
he's had "two seasons" in '07. Prior to the break, he went 8-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 18
starts (team was 13-5). However, since the break, he's 2-8 with a 7.15 ERA in 12
starts (team is 3-9), allowing at least five ERs in EIGHT of those 12 outings! As for
Texas, Kevin Millwood (9-11, 5.31 ERA) has pitched better lately, as the team has won
his last three outings. However, all three have come at home. In 13 road starts in
'07, he's allowed 83 hits in 69.2 innings with a 5.43 ERA (he's 2-7 and the team is
4-9). MLB Total of the Week 15* Tex/Oak Over.

Good Luck...Larry

[PlayMaker]

DONBEST STEAM Plays for September, 13th 2007 record:

Time of Play Game Date Game # Team Line Result
9:49:04am 2007-09-15 151 Ball State Over 54½
9:43:51am 2007-09-15 175 UTEP +6
9:40:54am 2007-09-14 105 Oklahoma State Under 63½
7:04:05am 2007-09-13 102 Maryland Under 64½ PS-THEY HIT WEST VIRGINIA UNDER AGAIN,ITS DOWN TO 62 NOW,EXTREMELY STRONG WHEN THEY HIT ONE TWICE,ONLY THING IS WATCH THE LINE,IF IT JUMPS BACK UP TO 65 TONIGHT,THEN GET OFF THE UNDER !! !!


Marc Lawrence Power Play
Air Force

trends:
AF 8-1 as conf home dogs 2 > pts
AF 2-10 prior to BYU

TCU 7-1 off DD ats loss vs opp off BB SU wins
TCU 1-10 in 2nd road game of season

[PlayMaker]

Doc's WNBA
6 Unit Play. #608 Take Over 179 ½ in Detroit @ Phoenix (8:30 pm ESPN 2) The Mercury face a must win game when game No. 4 takes place @ US Airways Arena in Phoenix, AZ. Phoenix could not buy a hoop from long distance in game three and thus they were only able to manage 83 points, but expect them to come out determined to reach 100 points in this affair. They still average 99 point per game in the 2007 playoffs and that will get us to tonight’s posted total. Both team reach the nineties and we do not worry if Phoenix can cover a wide spread and just collect with the over.


Best of luck – Doc’s Sports

[PlayMaker]

Brandon Lang

THURSDAY
15 DIME

West Virginia - (If your man has 17 1/2 when you go to put this in you buy the half and only lay -17. Don't ever, I repeat, don't you EVER get beat by the hook. Only lay 17.

5 DIME

Reds - Specify Pitchers - Wells vs Harang - (I handicapped this game with an overnight line of -130. This morning it came out at -180/-190. I would never play a favorite of that price and haven't all year. If I did I would lay -1 1/2 runs.)

Rockies - Specify Pitchers - Francis vs Durbin
Angels -1 1/2 runs - Specify Pitchers - Lackey vs Leicester


Free Pick - Padres and Air Force - (For analysis see Daily video)


Note:
Ok, lets get after it again tonight.

Once again we are building towards a great weekend. That is what this business is about. Building.

Winning days build winning weeks build winning months build winning years.

I have won 2 days in a row and 5 of the last 6.

I have won 3 straight weeks.

I have won 6 of the last 8 weeks.

I have won 5 of 8 months this year.

People, just go all in, sit back and relax and watch me do what I have always done since I started doing this for a living, win longterm.

It really is that simple. When you approach this business with a longterm gameplan, you understand what it takes to win longterm.

When you understand how to navigate a 7 day week, work your way thru it, never hitting the panic button no matter how bad it looks, trusting your money management, you can win over a long extended period of time.

No secret here. I don't chase when I am down, if it is a bad week, I pay my man, tell him don't spend it all in one place because I will be back to get it in 7 days.

Simple as that. No matter what happens, I never compromise my discipline for anything on this planet because I know what I do is successfull.

Folks, trust me when I tell you this is going to be a great year. Seriously, I can feel these things. Been at this way too long not to know.

Get on board longterm. Join my team longterm. Become part of the B.Lang family. You will be glad you did.

In the meantime, let's make it a 3rd straight winning day and 6 of the last 7. Rolling baby, rolling. Let's keep the roll going tonight.


WEST VIRGINIA
Ok, I know they played a very sluggish first half at Marshall. Very sluggish.

However, this is primetime on Thursday night against a Maryland team that has no offense.

I mean, when you start having to punt 10 times against the Florida Internationals of the world, you are in trouble before the game starts.

Bottom line is Maryland has no offense and they are going to have to keep up in this game to cover this number.

Personally, I don't trust them in this spot and in my opinion, West Virginia is without question the right side of this game.

I mean, so they were sluggish against Marshall, but they still put up 48 points and over 500 yards total offense.

You add that with the 62 points and 542 yards at home to Western Michigan and this is a go with team or you don't go with them at all.

My point is, they are so explosive, you can't go against them regardless of the number when they are playing a team like Maryland who struggled as they did against Florida Atlantic.

You finally throw in the fact that West Virginia under Rodriquez is 9-2-1 ATS last 12 on the road and it is here you find value and the reason why they have that 9-2-1 ATS mark.

I am laying this number and calling for a 3 touchdown winner and just like last year, we may have to sweat a backdoor but nothing you can do about that.

Right side is West Virginia and I am on them here.


REDS - (As I mentioned at the top, this was a play at -130 which is the value I was talking about in the following analysis. I would never lay -180/-190. Havent all year. I would lay -1 1/2 runs before I laid a big number like I saw today.)

If Kip Wells beat Harang tonight, so be it. I personally don't see that happening.

Harang bounced back from his horrific start against the Mets, a game I used him and a game he gave u 6 runs in 6 innings of a blowout loss.

He came back his next start and went 7 solid innings of 2 run ball in a no decision against the Brewers.

He comes in here at 14-4 on the year with a respectable 3.64 ERA including a 7-3 mark at home.

Wells is not only 3-9 on the highway this year but 5-16 overall and 0-4 his last 5 versus the Reds.

Great price and great spot for Harang and I will gladly lay it and call for the Reds to roll.

Make Harang 15-4 after tonight.


ROCKIES
You beat the guy who was 6-0 at home like the Rockies did last night and truthfully, I like their chances to beat Durbin tonight.

Over his last 2 starts, Durbin has given up 9 runs in 4 innings going 0-2. Not exactly confidence building numbers now is it.

Francis has had a nice year at 15-7 including a strong 8-3 road mark with a 3.77 ERA. Pretty solid there folks.

Over his last 3 starts Francis is 2-1 allowing 5 runs in 23 innings. He will be solid again tonight.

Phillies, just like last year, are falling fast because they have no bullpen and they have no manager. What can I say, Charlie Manuel is horrible.

I am backing the Rockies tonight.


ANGELS -1 1/2 RUNS
They are beating this Orioles pitching staff as if they were little leaguers.

Angels are in the go zone here folks and the Orioles and this horrible pitching staff isn't about to slow them down.

After shredding the Orioles 10-5 in game one of the series, they hammered them 18-6 last night for a 28-11 run.

Tonight they send Lackey to the hill, who in his last road start, he shutout the Mariners with a complete game win.

Angels get their 7th straight road win tonight and they get the sweep of the Orioles along with it.

Angels roll large.


PADRES FREE PICK
Listen, pretty simple pick here.

Maddux has won 2 in a row, it should be 3 in a row and he has beaten the Dodgers 4 in a row.

He has allowed no more than 2 runs against them his last 4 and in his last 3 starts he has allowed just 1, 2 and 1 run.

He is on fire and I will gladly make them a free pick winner.

[PlayMaker]

Larry Ness' 15* MLB Total of the Week (30-10 since Aug 7 / 113-40 this season!)

My 15* play is on Tex/Oak Over at 10:05 ET. After winning 13 of 15 games to make a .500 season a possibility, the Rangers (69-76) were cooled off with back-to-back losses at Detroit, scoring one run in each game. However, I like the way the Rangers are hitting the ball, as they had averaged 6.3 RPG while winning those 13 of 15 games. By the way, the team's 30 runs at Baltimore came BEFORE its 13-2 run! The Rangers have won nine of 15 this season against the A's, including three straight wins, in which they scored 24 runs. That matches up well vs Oakland's starters, who are 2-9 with a 6.33 ERA over the last 18 games. Starting tonight is Chad Gaudin and he's had "two seasons" in '07. Prior to the break, he went 8-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 18 starts (team was 13-5). However, since the break, he's 2-8 with a 7.15 ERA in 12 starts (team is 3-9), allowing at least five ERs in EIGHT of those 12 outings! As for Texas, Kevin Millwood (9-11, 5.31 ERA) has pitched better lately, as the team has won his last three outings. However, all three have come at home. In 13 road starts in '07, he's allowed 83 hits in 69.2 innings with a 5.43 ERA (he's 2-7 and the team is 4-9). MLB Total of the Week 15* Tex/Oak Over.

Good Luck...Larry

[PlayMaker]

Rocco Spacamuro
50 Units TCU -8

[PlayMaker]

Michael Cannon

St. Louis at CINCINNATI (-130)

A terrible call with the Phillies on the run line last night as they are blanked 12-0 by the Rockies.

I will atone for that mistake today with the Reds at home over the Cardinals.

Cincinnati will start their ace, Aaron Harang, while St. Louis will start their scrub, Kip Wells.

Harang is 14-4 on the year with a 3.64 ERA. On the rare occasions when he doesn't pitch well, his teammates have rallied to provide him with plenty of run support, which has consistently put him in the position to grab the win.

Wells, on the other hand, has been brutal this year with a 6-16 record and a 5.65 ERA. He has bounced between the bullpen and the starting rotation recently and I don't see him holding the Reds offense down today.

With injuries taking their toll on the Cardinals lineup, take the Reds this afternoon at Great American Ballpark for the win.

3♦ CINCINNATI

[PlayMaker]

Michael Cannon Money Train


20 Dime

TCU

Take Tcu tonight for the road win and cover over Air Force.
The Horned Frogs come into this game on the heels of their 34-13 meltdown loss at Texas last week. They actually led 10-0 at halftime before they fell apart.
Now that Tcu doesn’t have to deal with any BCS talk for a while, they can focus their full attention on Air Force. The fact is, Air Force doesn’t match up with this Tcu team at all, as the Horned Frogs are on a 4-0 SUATS run against the Falcons, including back-to-back blowout wins the last two seasons.
Tcu’s team speed on defense wreaks havoc on the Falcon’s option, and with the return of defensive end Tommy Blake I expect more of the same tonight.
Air Force is trying to balance out its attack this year, but they are still running the ball at a 4:1 ratio which plays right into Tcu’s strength.
Tcu is 30-7 ATS when they win straight up on the road against a conference opponent and that number improves to 10-1 ATS when the Horned Frogs are coming off a loss.
Air Force is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 overall, including 0-5 ATS at home.
Lay the points with Tcu as they win and cover over Air Force.


5 Dime

WEST VIRGINIA

Lay the big number with West Virginia on the road over Maryland.
The Mountaineers survived a bit of a scare last week at Marshall, as they trailed 16-13 midway through the third quarter before pulling away for a 48-23 win.
The amazing thing about that game was West Virginia actually covered the big 24 ½-point spread when it looked like they might suffer a huge upset loss.
That right there shows me this team knows how to make the necessary adjustments midstream to pull away from an eager opponent playing over its head.
The Mountaineers just have too much speed on offense with quarterback Pat White and running back Steve Slaton. Toss in the diminutive freshman running back Noel Devine, another speed burner who has three touchdowns on only 13 touches, and the Mountaineer attack is just flat-out lethal.
Maryland doesn’t have an explosive attack on offense to keep pace in this one, so Wvu should pull away in the second-half when the adrenaline wears off for the Terps.
West Virginia is on an 11-2 ATS run in weekday games and a 9-2 ATS tear on the road.
Maryland is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home games.
Lay the points with West Virginia as they run away, literally, with this one.


ROCKIES (With Francis and Durbin as listed pitchers)

Take the Rockies for the road win tonight over the Phillies.
Colorado will start Jeff Francis and the left-hander has been huge for them this year. He’s 15-7 on the year with a 4.05 ERA, including a 2-1 mark with a 1.99 ERA over his last three starts.
If the Rockies’ bats were hot last night, imagine what they might do tonight against Philadelphia starter J.D. Durbin.
Durbin has allowed 12 runs, nine earned, over his last two starts. He lasted only 4 1-3 innings in his last start, but that was a marathon compared to his previous start when he didn’t retire a batter after giving up seven runs on five hits in a 12-6 loss at Florida.
The Rockies have outscored the Phillies 20-2 in winning the last two games and I expect their offensive surge to continue tonight against Durbin.
Take Colorado for the road win.

[PlayMaker]

Ben Burns NCAA

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Regular:
air force under TOM
maryland ROAST