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Volmania
09-20-2007, 12:59 PM
Gator's "Right" Angle Technical Analysis
Listed below are some of Gator's Angles and Technical Situations for upcoming games. Each week Gator will post his NFL and College Angles and Technical Situations for that weeks games.
at Hawaii Warriors by NL Charleston Southern O/U NL
Hawaii Warriors are 30-16-0 O/U All Games (All Lines)
Hawaii Warriors are 21-8-0 O/U As Favorite (All Lines)
Hawaii Warriors are 19-8-0 O/U As Home (All Lines)
Hawaii Warriors are 14-5-0 O/U As Home Favorite (All Lines)
Hawaii Warriors are 15-4-0 O/U After 1 ATS Wins (All Lines)
at Louisville Cardinals by 37.0 Syracuse Orangemen O/U 61.5
Louisville Cardinals are 0-5-0 O/U After 1 Losses (All Lines)
Syracuse Orangemen are 1-9-0 O/U After 3 Losses (All Lines)
Illinois Fighting Illini by 2.5 at Indiana Fightin Hoosiers O/U 63.0
Indiana Fightin Hoosiers are 29-47-2 ATS All Games (All Lines)
Indiana Fightin Hoosiers are 19-41-1 ATS As Dog (All Lines)
Indiana Fightin Hoosiers are 12-27-1 ATS After 1 Home (All Lines)
Baylor Bears by 3.5 at Buffalo Bulls O/U 53.0
Buffalo Bulls are 5-0-0 O/U As Home Dog (All Lines)
at Brigham Young Cougars by 11.0 Air Force Falcons O/U 54.0
Brigham Young Cougars are 2-11-0 ATS After 2 Away (All Lines)
at Alabama Crimson Tide by 3.5 Georgia Bulldogs O/U 48.5
Alabama Crimson Tide are 2-9-0 O/U After 3 Wins (All Lines)
Georgia Bulldogs are 15-5-2 ATS All Games (3 -> 6.5)
Georgia Bulldogs are 9-2-1 ATS As Away (3 -> 6.5)
Georgia Bulldogs are 15-34-0 O/U After 1 Wins (All Lines)
Penn State Nittany Lions by 3.0 at Michigan Wolverines O/U 47.5
Penn State Nittany Lions are 1-7-0 O/U After 1 Overs (3 -> 6.5)
Texas Tech Red Raiders by 6.0 at Oklahoma State Cowboys O/U 72.0
Texas Tech Red Raiders are 24-8-1 O/U After 1 ATS Wins (All Lines)
Oklahoma State Cowboys are 5-14-1 ATS All Games (3 -> 6.5)
Oklahoma State Cowboys are 2-9-0 ATS As Home (3 -> 6.5)
Oklahoma State Cowboys are 0-6-1 ATS After 1 Away (3 -> 6.5)
Michigan State Spartans by 12.5 at Notre Dame Fighting Irish O/U 43.0
Michigan State Spartans are 15-31-0 ATS As Favorite (All Lines)
Michigan State Spartans are 0-6-0 ATS As Favorite (10 -> 13.5)
at UCF Golden Knights by 7.0 Memphis Tigers O/U 57.0
UCF Golden Knights are 0-6-0 ATS After 1 Losses (7 -> 9.5)
Memphis Tigers are 10-23-1 ATS After 1 Wins (All Lines)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets by 3.5 at Virginia Cavaliers O/U 40.5
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are 7-1-0 ATS After 1 Unders (3 -> 6.5)
Virginia Cavaliers are 31-15-0 ATS As Home (All Lines)
Virginia Cavaliers are 12-2-0 ATS As Home (3 -> 6.5)
Virginia Cavaliers are 14-3-0 ATS As Home Dog (All Lines)
Virginia Cavaliers are 8-0-0 ATS As Home Dog (3 -> 6.5)
at Houston Cougars by 6.5 Colorado State Rams O/U 63.0
Houston Cougars are 5-0-0 O/U After 1 Wins (3 -> 6.5)
Houston Cougars are 6-0-0 O/U After 1 Unders (All Lines)
at California Golden Bears by 16.5 Arizona Wildcats O/U 55.5
Arizona Wildcats are 4-13-0 ATS After 1 Overs (All Lines)
Iowa State Cyclones by 4.0 at Toledo Rockets O/U 53.0
Toledo Rockets are 15-2-0 O/U As Home (All Lines)
Toledo Rockets are 7-0-0 O/U As Home Dog (All Lines)
Toledo Rockets are 5-0-0 O/U As Home Dog (3 -> 6.5)
Toledo Rockets are 6-0-0 O/U After 2 Away (All Lines)
at South Florida Bulls by 13.5 North Carolina Tar Heels O/U 50.0
South Florida Bulls are 10-25-1 O/U All Games (All Lines)
South Florida Bulls are 2-11-0 O/U As Favorite (All Lines)
South Florida Bulls are 3-11-1 O/U As Home (All Lines)
South Florida Bulls are 1-7-0 O/U As Home Favorite (All Lines)
South Florida Bulls are 1-11-0 O/U After 2 Wins (All Lines)
South Florida Bulls are 4-13-1 O/U After 1 Away (All Lines)
North Carolina Tar Heels are 5-0-0 ATS As Away (10 -> 13.5)
at Wake Forest Demon Deacons by 3.0 Maryland Terrapins O/U 42.0
Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 5-18-1 ATS As Favorite (All Lines)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 0-5-1 O/U As Home (3 -> 6.5)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 3-14-0 ATS As Home Favorite (All Lines)
Maryland Terrapins are 8-1-0 ATS As Dog (3 -> 6.5)
at Cincinnati Bearcats by 23.0 Marshall Thundering Herd O/U 54.5
Cincinnati Bearcats are 12-28-0 O/U All Games (All Lines)
Cincinnati Bearcats are 5-15-0 O/U As Home (All Lines)
Cincinnati Bearcats are 2-9-0 O/U After 2 ATS Wins (All Lines)
Marshall Thundering Herd are 14-31-0 ATS As Away (All Lines)
at Arkansas Razorbacks by 6.5 Kentucky Wildcats O/U 67.5
Arkansas Razorbacks are 0-7-0 O/U After 2 Overs (All Lines)
Kentucky Wildcats are 10-23-0 O/U As Dog (All Lines)
at Auburn Tigers by 16.5 New Mexico State Aggies O/U 51.5
Auburn Tigers are 7-1-0 O/U All Games (14 -> 16.5)
Auburn Tigers are 7-1-0 O/U As Favorite (14 -> 16.5)
at Texas Longhorns by 38.5 Rice Owls O/U 65.0
Texas Longhorns are 7-0-0 ATS After 2 Overs (All Lines)
Texas Longhorns are 24-11-0 ATS After 1 Away (All Lines)
Rice Owls are 22-5-0 O/U All Games (All Lines)
Rice Owls are 19-5-0 O/U As Dog (All Lines)
at Southern California Trojans by 24.5 Washington State Cougars O/U 64.5
Washington State Cougars are 17-7-1 O/U As Dog (All Lines)
Washington State Cougars are 11-3-0 O/U As Away Dog (All Lines)
Washington State Cougars are 17-6-0 O/U After 1 ATS Loss (All Lines)
at Wisconsin Badgers by 7.5 Iowa Hawkeyes O/U 45.0
Wisconsin Badgers are 13-4-0 ATS All Games (7 -> 9.5)
Wisconsin Badgers are 8-1-0 ATS As Home (7 -> 9.5)
Iowa Hawkeyes are 54-34-0 ATS All Games (All Lines)
Iowa Hawkeyes are 25-10-0 ATS After 1 Away (All Lines)
at Utah State Aggies by 3.5 San Jose State Spartans O/U 44.0
San Jose State Spartans are 8-21-0 O/U All Games (All Lines)
at Texas Christian Horned Frogs by 20.5 Southern Methodist Mustangs O/U 52.0
Texas Christian Horned Frogs are 10-1-0 ATS After 2 Away (All Lines)
Purdue Boilermakers by 13.5 at Minnesota Golden Gophers O/U 69.0
Minnesota Golden Gophers are 41-23-2 O/U All Games (All Lines)
Minnesota Golden Gophers are 24-9-0 O/U As Home (All Lines)
Utah Utes by 8.5 at UNLV Rebels O/U 46.5
Utah Utes are 31-16-1 ATS After 1 Wins (All Lines)
UNLV Rebels are 0-6-0 ATS After 3 Unders (All Lines)
Oregon Ducks by 17.0 at Stanford Cardinal O/U 60.0
Stanford Cardinal are 24-41-0 O/U All Games (All Lines)
Stanford Cardinal are 18-34-0 O/U As Dog (All Lines)
Stanford Cardinal are 9-24-0 O/U After 1 Unders (All Lines)
at Kansas Jayhawks by 31.5 Florida Intl Golden Panthers O/U 54.5
Kansas Jayhawks are 0-6-0 ATS All Games (30 +)
Florida Intl Golden Panthers are 3-11-0 O/U As Dog (All Lines)
Florida Intl Golden Panthers are 1-8-0 O/U As Away Dog (All Lines)
Florida Intl Golden Panthers are 1-8-0 ATS After 3 Losses (All Lines)
Florida Intl Golden Panthers are 1-8-0 O/U After 3 Losses (All Lines)
Florida Intl Golden Panthers are 0-6-0 ATS After 2 Unders (All Lines)
Florida Intl Golden Panthers are 1-8-0 O/U After 1 Away (All Lines)
Florida Atlantic Owls by 6.5 at North Texas Eagles O/U 55.0
North Texas Eagles are 1-7-0 O/U All Games (3 -> 6.5)
North Texas Eagles are 0-5-0 O/U As Home (3 -> 6.5)
North Texas Eagles are 3-11-0 O/U After 1 ATS Wins (All Lines)
NorthCoast Sports
4*
Wyoming
Comp:..Under Dog POW....NC State
North Coast..Power Plays:
3*...BYU
2*...Notre Dame
Under Dog POW....Toledo
2*...New Mexico State
3*...Purdue
2*...Az. State
4*...Fla. Atlantic
Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
***LSU (-16.5) 35 South Carolina 9
12:30 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
LSU has been unbelievably good on defense through their first 3 games, allowing only 129 yards per game at 2.3 yards per play with no team gaining more than 149 yards or averaging higher than 2.6 yppl. South Carolina will be the best offensive team that the Tigers have faced, but the Gamecocks haven’t shown the explosive pass attack that was evident last season, as perhaps the loss of 2nd round NFL draft pick Sidney Rice has hurt more than expected. Quarterback Blake Mitchell was great at the end of last season and averaged 8.3 yards per pass play for the season but Mitchell has averaged only 5.2 yppp in two games this season (he was suspended for the opener), including only 4.9 yppp against a solid Georgia defense. Being shut down by Georgia does not bode well for Mitchell today against an even better LSU defense and the Gamecocks’ good rushing attack (5.7 yards per rushing play) doesn’t figure to produce even mediocre numbers against a Tigers’ defensive front that’s allowed just 2.7 yprp against 3 decent running teams. South Carolina should have better success offensively than the other 3 teams that have faced LSU, but I still don’t expect them to score more than 10 points. South Carolina has played pretty well defensively thanks to a very good secondary, but the Gamecocks have suffered some attrition along the defensive line and are allowing 5.1 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine to average only 4.6 yprp against an average defensive team. LSU may be slowed down through the air, but the Tigers may not need to throw given that they have averaged 246 yards at 6.1 yprp and should dominate South Carolina’s defensive line. In addition to the favorable fundamentals the Tigers apply to a 46-8 ATS subset of a 117-58-4 ATS home momentum situation as well as a 58-19-1 ATS momentum situation. South Carolina is 9-1 ATS on the road under coach Steve Spurrier, but that’s the only thing keeping this from being a 4-Star Best Bet. I’ll take LSU in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars from -17 ½ to -19 points.
3 Star Selection
***Arizona 29 CALIFORNIA (-15.5) 34
03:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
As much as I love my Bears they appear overrated to me. Cal has a great offense that can beat you by land (7.4 yards per rushing play) and by air (Longshore has averaged 7.4 yards per pass play in his career against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback), but the Bears have been just mediocre defensively this season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) and Arizona is capable of slowing down the Cal attack. The Wildcats were 0.5 yards per play better than average defensively last season and they’re 0.5 yppl better than average this season. Arizona’s offense was the problem last season, as talented quarterback Willie Tuitama was sacked too many times and had problems with concussions that kept him out of the lineup often. Coach Mike Stoops brought in Sonny Dykes to install the Texas Tech spread passing offense, which is based on 3 step drops and quick release times, which will keep Tuitama upright more this season (just 3 sacks on 136 pass plays this season) and allow him to use his considerable skills. The results have been pretty good so far (6.1 yards per play when Tuitama is in the game, against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average offense) and Arizona should move the ball well against the Bears. Cal’s star WR DeSean Jackson has a badly sprained thumb that has caused him to drop some balls and the Bears have 3 key defensive players all listed as questionable this week. There is good depth on Cal’s defense, but Jackson’s problems have hurt the pass attack and Longshore has averaged just 6.5 yppp in the first 3 games while overthrowing a lot of receivers. I used Longshore’s career stats (which are much better) in my model and my ratings favor Cal by only 11 ½ points and my preseason ratings would have favored the Bears by only 10 points. There is some line value favoring Arizona because of last week’s upset loss to New Mexico, but that was a bit of a fluke given that the Wildcats out-gained New Mexico 6.7 yppl to 5.4 yppl in that game. The loss also sets up the Wildcats in a very strong 43-11 ATS subset of an 80- 38 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. I know Cal has revenge for losing in Tucson last season, but that situation is 17-2 ATS if the opposing team has revenge and Cal is just 6-6 ATS in conference revenge games under Jeff Tedford. Besides, big underdogs usually play better if they won the previous year’s match-up since they come into the game with confidence. The Bears are now just 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 11 points or more while Arizona is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog of 7 points or more. I’ll take Arizona in a 3-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more and I’ll make the Wildcats a 4-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more (2-Stars from +12 to +13 ½).
2 Star Selection
**NAVY (-11.5) 41 Duke 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Duke broke their 22 game losing streak last week, but that will only serve to put the Midshipmen on alert this week, just in case last week’s loss to Ball State wasn’t enough to have them motivated. Navy is 9-4-1 ATS in games after a loss since coach Paul Johnson’s second season (2003), including 7-1 ATS against losing teams, so the Middies have a habit of taking out their frustrations on bad teams. Navy is actually 20-5 ATS in all games against losing teams the last few years while Duke is just 1-5 ATS after a victory and only 4-13 ATS under coach Roof when not an underdog of more than 14 points, including 0-9 ATS in non-conference games. Duke also applies to a negative 17-41 ATS game 4 situation that plays against teams coming off their first win of the season. Navy’s option attack has averaged 438 yards at 6.5 yards per play and that unit should have no trouble running against a Duke defense that’s allowed 5.3 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would combine to average 4.6 yprp against an average defensive team). Navy’s defense has been a trouble spot with just 2 of last year’s starters currently playing, but Duke’s porous attack (just 3.9 yards per play) is not likely to take full advantage of a Middies’ defense that’s allowed 6.8 yppl so far this season. Duke will score some points, but Navy is likely to score almost every time that they get the ball and my ratings favor the Midshipmen by 17 ½ points while using this year’s games only would result in Navy by 20 ½ points. I’ll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 3-Stars at -11 or less.
PPP
5% NEBRASKA
With only Iowa St on deck, Nebraska will be in an ornery mood following their 31-49 loss to USC on this field on National TV LW. History indicates Ball St is in trouble. Nebraska is 10-3 ATS -10+, 10-5 ATS / Loss and beat Troy 56-0 on this field LY after losing to USC. In week 1 the ever improving Huskers rang up 413 RY in pummeling Nevada. Last week Ball allowed Navy 521 yards overland. Expect an overland Steamrolling output somewhere between the 2 numbers as Nebraska cruises to a 30+ point victory against a Ball St team traveling for the 3rd consecutive week who is 0-7 ATS against Big 12 opponents. Wrong place, wrong time for the Pay Day team.
3% NAVY
LW we used Navy as a 5* Big East Game of the Week in their 31-34 loss to Ball St. When was the last time you saw a 7 point favorite rush for 521 yards and lose the game? NEVER!!! Further west Duke ended their 23 game losing streak by defeating Northwestern as +17. There were out gained by the Wild Cats 507-309 despite the Wild Cats not having their best offensive player, RB Sutton. It sets up the biggest “inverted stat play of the week” with at least 7 points of line value as a result. Navy has won and covered the last 3 in this series including LY when they out rushed Duke 435-113. Not much has changed as the Middies are #1 in the Nation in rushing at 379 RYPG on 6.5 YPR. Duke is still allowing 4.0 YPR while their pitiful offense is averaging just 16 PPG. Navy QB Kaipo who suffered 2nd half ankle injuries vs. Ball has been upgraded to probable for this weeks action. A true Steamroller.
3% KANSAS
Jay Hawks are new to this early season menu of devouring cupcakes. But they have clearly learned from the best in copying in state rival Kansas St who built their program in the 90’s with the same MO. To date, the Jay Hawks are 3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS beating C. Mich, SELA, and Toledo by a margin of 46 PPG. Now comes the worst team in D1, Florida Intl who is 0-15 SU L2Y and is averaging just 6 PPG. With Mangino a bankroll bulging 15-5 ATS at home and with a week off to follow, look for another Steamrolling effort by Kansas this week against a Florida Intl team sandwiched between Home town Miami Fla. And their conference schedule. This one is in the barn by half time. Rock Chalk Jay Hawk.
Steam Plays
303 Oklahoma -20½
322 BYU -9½
324 UCLA -5½
power sweep
4* Fl Atlantic
3* BYU
3* Purdue
2* Arizona St
2* Auburn
Red Sheet Plays
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89's--Navy 38-14 over Duke
NEB 48-14 over Ball St
88's--BYU 45-20 over Air Force
ORE 47-13 over Stanford
KANSAS 59-10 over Fla Int
87's--CINN,LSU,TCU,OKLA
NFL 88--PITT 34-13 over S Fran
87's--N ENG,CAR,TENN
Greg Roberts Roast of Week--LOUISVILLE
Dog of Week---TOLEDO
Pure Lock College Football Member Play
VIRGINIA (confirmed
Goldsheet Confidential Kick-Off
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10* Nebraska 41 Ball St 10
10* Uconn 24 Pittsburgh 21
10* East Carolina 19 West Virginia 31
10* UNLV 26 Utah 24
Larry Ness
20* Pac-10 "Game of the Year"
UCLA
Scott Spreitzer
Best Bets
Arizona State
Byu
Dave Malinsky
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5* Tennessee -18 over Arkansas St
5* Army +29 over Boston College
4* Florida -21 over Mississippi
4* Iowa/Wisconsin Under 44
4* Georgia / Alabama under 48 1/2
4* Illinois / Indiana Under 63
Mike Neri
4* Nebraska
3* LSU
Brandon Lang
SATURDAY
25 DIME
COLORADO
10 DIME
Washington
Memphis
5 DIME
Army
Colorado St
Navy
Maryland
Free Pick - Purdue - (For analysis see Daily video)
Burns
Ben Burns' 2007 "SHOCKER" OF THE YEAR *National TV
Last year, Ben Burns released his NFL "Shocker" GOY and Underdog Oakland WON OUTRIGHT by 12. He followed that up by releasing his NCAA "Shocker" GOY and +10 UNLV SHOCKED THE WORLD by WINNING OUTRIGHT vs. Air Force. Last week, Ben cashed his NFL "Shocker" GOY on the Browns who WON OUTRIGHT vs. Cincinnati.
Notre Dame
Burns' BIG-10 GAME OF THE YEAR ***17-4 L21 GOYs***
BIG Game Expert Ben Burns is a PERFECT 3-0 with his college football "Game of the Year" releases and a SIMPLY INCREDIBLE 17-4 his L21 "GOY" picks overall. If you've been enjoying that 81% RUN of BIG GAME DOMINANCE, then you'll simply LOVE Ben's BIG 10 CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR.
Iowa
Ben Burns' #1 NCAA Total of the Week ***5-0 YTD***
Ben Burns is off to a SIZZLING 5-0 START with his college football over/under picks this season. This renowned "Totals Guru" puts that PERFECT RECORD on the line with a single SUPERB "total" BLOWOUT on Saturday. Don't wait for the line to move
AZ St/Ore St UNDER
Ben Burns 3-Game EXECUTIVE Report **
Ben Burns LOVES Saturday's college schedule and is STEPPING OUT with one of his HIGHLY COVETED EXECUTIVE Reports. This COMMANDING CARD contains a TRIO OF ABSOLUTE GEMS, including Ben's #1 BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK. Ben's went 2-1 with his last "Executive Report" but today's card has SWEEP WRITTEN ALL OVER IT.
Stanford
UNLV
NC State (Annihilator)
Texas (Blowout of the week)
Inside Info:
3-tx, Ala, Utah St
Gameday:
4-byu
rossbenjaminsports
Utah @ UNLV 10:00 PM ET 9/22/2007
Play On: UNLV +8.5
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Utah comes off a stunning 44-6 home win over UCLA. The final score is a bit deceiving considering the fact that Utah was the beneficiary of 5 UCLA turnovers and the total yardage in the game was virtually even. In spite of the 44 points last week this is not a very good offensive team. UNLV had been very competitive early on until being whacked at home by a very good Hawaii team. I look for the Rebels to bounce back with a strong effort and the Utes to suffer a bit of a let down after their upset win a week ago over a nationally ranked team. Laying more than a touchdown on the road is just a reaction by the books to adhere to public perception based on the results of both squads from last week. Take the home underdog UNLV Rebels.
Any conference away favorite of 17.0 or less that is off a home underdog SU win in which they scored 34 or more points, versus a foe playing with revenge, and has a win percentage of .125 or better is 1-13 ATS since 1980.
JIM KRUGER
5* BYU -11.5
3* Indiana +2.5
3* Arizona over 55
2* Arkansas -7
SUNDAY
4* Detroit Lions +7 in NFL
Greg Roberts
Roast of Week--LOUISVILLE
Dog of Week---TOLEDO
5* is B.Y.U.
TOM SCOTT'S FIVE STAR PERFECT SYSTEM PLAY 29-0!
Kentucky at ARKANSAS - 6:00 PM EST
Play ON: #362 - ARKANSAS minus the points
Everyone who pays attention to college football knows that Houston Nutt's job is on the line this season and he HAS TO WIN this game to keep it. He can. Kentucky has lost 14 straight road games when it has been outrushed, a very distinct possibility here since the net rushing yardage differential between the two is 122 yards in favor of the Hogs. When Arkansas wins, it usually covers. The Pigs are 41-12 ATS in their last 53 SU wins off a loss, including a sterling 31-6 ATS in SEC play and a perfect 13-0 ATS when playing an opponent who is off back-to-back wins. Kentucky has covered just three times in 19 chances on the road off a win when favored or when an underdog of less than 10. One other point - How are the BlueGrass Cats going to get back up after that last second emotional win over their state rival?
PREDICTION: ARKANSAS 38 - Kentucky 23
Strike Points
3 Indiana +3
6 G.Tech money line
2 Kent St.
3 Wyoming
3 Wake forest
3 Texas tech
2 Csu/Hou over 63
3 Baylor
3 Kentucky
3 Georgia
MARC LAWRENCE PAID for CFB PICK
Best Bet for the PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB:
9/22/07 - College
PLAY ON any Game Four college team in their first road game of the
season with revenge vs. an undefeated opponent off back-to-back wins.
ATS W-L Record SInce 1980: 14-0
Play ON: Northwestern
Rationale: Road teams in Game Four are underlaid by oddsmakers if its
their first away game of the season. They become especially
dangerous with revenge against an undefeated opponent.
Chris Copeland (9-4 CFB ytd.)
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Wisconsin
Idaho
Toledo
Oregon State
DAVE PRICE
Illinois vs. Indiana Illinois -2.5
Reason:4* Illinois -2.5
Indiana is 0-7 ATS after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game since 1992, 8-20 ATS in home games after playing a game at home since 1992, and 5-17 ATS after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Indiana is also 15-31 against the number as a home dog the last 15 seasons. We knew that the Illini were the better team heading in and we still feel that way after 3 weeks of the season. Take Illinois.
Baylor vs. Buffalo Buffalo 3.5
Reason:7* Buffalo +3.5
This play goes on Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, with 17 or more total starters returning, in the first month of the season. This system is 35-13 the last 15 years. Baylor is 0-6 ATS after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons. Pound the Bulls.
SMU vs. TCU SMU 21.0
Reason:4* SMU +21
The underdog role has treated SMU well. SMU has won 6 straight games over the last 3 seasons as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points. A terrible loss at Air Force leads us to believe that the books are giving TCU to much value this week. Take the points as this one stays within 2 TDs.
Oregon vs. Stanford Stanford 17.0
Reason:5* Stanford +17
This play goes against a road team (OREGON) who is an excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games. This system is 27-6 the last 5 seasons. That’s an 81.8% win rate. Take the points.
Utah vs. UNLV UNLV 9.0 / -110.0 NA
Reason:3* UNLV +9
Utah is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons. After playing a phenomenal game against UCLA, the Utes are in a primetime letdown spot. Playing the favorite has not been a winning role ATS for Utah. We’ll take the points with UNLV being jacked to take on Utah at home.
Scott Spreitzer's CFB 25* Underdog Shocker! *9-1, 90%! -- Saturday
Scott's smokin' the books in September. He's 9-1, 90% with his 10 CFB Saturday packages, going 11-3, 79% winners inside of those reports! Scott's also a PERFECT 3-0, 100% ATS with 25* plays! Grab Scott's CFB 25* UNDERDOG SHOCKER right now as he looks to BURY THE BOOKS with a "Live Pup" Blowout!
U.N.L.V.
Wolkosky Milan
116-71-2 last thirty five days!!! (62%)
1-3 Yesterday
Today:
10* MICHIGAN +3
10* BYU -11½
10* UCLA -6
10* CONNECTICUT +9½
10* UNLV +8½
10* TENNESSEE -19
Free: GEORGIA TECH -3½
Kelso
Best Bets club
10 units Colorado -13 v. Miami (OH)
10 units LSU -18 v. South Carolina
5 units Colorado St. +7@ Houston
5 units Idaho -3 v. N. Ill
Football Chicks
6 units - 363 New Mexico St +17
5 units - 355 Maryland +3
4 units - 314 Akron +3.5
2 units - 325 Georgia +3.5
1 unit - 335 Michigan St -14
5 units - 349 E. Carolina/350 WVA Under 59.5
3 units - 312 Buffalo +3
3 units - 343 Arizona +13.5
3 units - 375 Iowa/376 Wisconsin Over 43.5
Scott Spreitzer
First CFB Conf. GAME OF THE YEAR!
Mountain West GOY
BYU
Psychic Sports
2 units Indiana +2
2 units North Texas +7
2 units Washington +6
3 units West Virginia -24
3 units Michigan +2.5
3 units Kentucky +7
3 units Georgia +3.5
Chad Jordan
THREE MILLION DOLLAR WINNERS
INDIANA+2.5
MICHIGAN STATE -10
TWO MILLION DOLLAR WINNERS
SO. FLORIDA -12.5
UCONN+9
MILLION DOLLAR WINNER
FLORIDA -23
John Ryan
WAKE FOREST -3½
Looking briefly at the Maryland at Wake Forest game there is a strong system that supports Wake. Maryland now knows that they are just not that good a team as they lost SU and ATS at home to West Virginia in front of a National TV audience. Sure they have had a week and a half to prepare, but it takes far longer to overcome that highly emotional and physical loss. This 10-year winning system has gone 30-7 ATS. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are poor passing teams scoring 5.6-6.4 PY/Att. And is now facing an excellent passing defense yielding <=5.6 PY/Att. It could be that simple as I think Wake will win this game by 7 or more points.
MISSISSIPPI +23
Let’s take a look at a very intriguing play that has been graded as a 3* LIVE MAJOR DOG by the Ai Simulator. Florida had a huge win at home versus Tennessee ( 1 5* MONSTER loss by the way) and now Florida takes on Mississippi with the line opening at 23 and quickly moving to 21 points. Let’s first take a look at a supporting system that has hit 82% ATS going 27-6 since 202. Play against a road team that is an excellent rushing team averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games. Clearly you could call this a let down system knowing that the play against opponent dominated the LOS in their last 2 games. What is most impressive is that 20 of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is another system that I like just as much and has gone 76-34 ATS since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Looking at the matchups I think Mississippi will be able to score points on the Florida defense, but they will have to gain 75 or more rushing yards to do so. Here are two supporting angles as well that show this game could be far closer than anyone would imagine right now. OLE MISS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992. FLORIDA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. Last, but certainly not least is that the AiS shows a 75% probability that Mississippi will lose this game by 21 or fewer points. This is a SEC game and anything can and will happen in this conference.
Cash Pomer
25% of Bankroll on these three plays :
Penn State
Georgia
B.Y.U.
75 % of Bankroll Play :
Arkansas
Sebastian
10* Army +28
10* UNLV +8
10* UL Lafyette +8
20* S. Carolina +17
20* Iowa +8
20* Indiana +3
20* Alabama -3
50* Ok St. +6
50* UConn +9
100* BYU -11.5
Lenny Del Genio's 25* CFB Blowout GOY (15-5 start in CFB '07 / 1-0 with 25*s!)-Saturday
Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio
Game: Ball St. at Nebraska Sep 22 2007 12:30PM
Prediction: Nebraska
Reason: Play on Nebraska at 12:30 ET. The last thing Ball St. needed was Nebraska getting embarrassed by USC, the week before the Cardinals visited Lincoln. Unfortunately for Ball St, that's exactly what happened! After opening with a 14-13 home loss to Miami-Ohio, Ball St. has won two straight on the road, including last week's draining 34-31 OT win at Navy. The Cardinals won despite allowing 521 rushing yards and now get a Nebrska team looking to "make up" for its non-competitive performance against USC. Making matters worse, this will be Ball St's third straight road game. Ball St. QB Nate Davis has not been quite as sharp completion-wise as LY (61.2%), connecting on just 53.3% so far, but he does have eight TDs versus just one interception. The problem though, is that the Ball St. defense (allowing 268.7 ypg on the ground and 6.2 ypc), will have to face a solid Nebraska running game (186.3 ypg) plus face a QB in Sam Keller, looking for a breakout game. Expectations were high entering the USC game and all Nebraska can do now is "take it out" on Ball ST. Expect just that to happen! Since losing to Southern Miss in Lincoln in his first year at Nebraska ('04), Callahan has won all five of his home games versus non-conference opponents, going 4-1 ATS. In the four ATS wins, the Cornhuskers have 'covered' by a combined total of 91 points, winning the last three games by the combined score of 157-20! Fill in the blanks here. Nebraska is my 25* Blowout GOY.
BIG AL's #1 NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK (100% THIS YEAR)
At 8 pm, on ABC TV, our College Football Game of the Week is on the Iowa Hawkeyes plus the points over Wisconsin. The Badgers are 3-0 and have the nation's longest win streak (at 15 games), yet were tied with The Citadel at 21 last week, early in the 3rd quarter, before finally winning 45-31. Wisconsin also struggled against UNLV the previous week, winning 20-13 as a 25 point favorite. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes have NOT allowed a touchdown all season, and have given up just 18 points (on six field goals), ranking third in scoring defense and fifth in total defense (at 212.7 yards per game). Even though Kirk Ferentz' men didn't give up a touchdown last week, they were upset by Iowa State 15-13, and the Hawkeyes now fall into two systems of mine that are 62-15 and 27-2 ATS that involve playing on conference teams to rebound off outright losses as a favorite. Take the Hawkeyes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other big College Winners: my 3-game package including our SEC Game of the Month; a Conference Game of the Year out of a 15-0 System; and a play out of a super 18-0 System.
BIG AL's 100% (15-0) CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR!
At 10 pm, our Mountain West Game of the Year is on the UNLV Rebels plus the points over Utah. Last week, the Utes upset UCLA 44-6 as a 15-point home dog for their first win of the season (after losing to Air Force and Oregon State in their first two games). But conference single-digit road favorites have covered just 17 of 61 games off an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog, if they're matched up against a foe with a win percentage from .100 to .730. UNLV is 1-2 this season. The Rebels opened with a road win at Utah State, but have dropped back-to-back home games vs. Wisconsin and Hawaii to fall to 1-2. However, since 1980, teams are 15-0 ATS as conference home dogs of 3+ points, if they are off two straight home losses, and have a win percentage between .200 and .400. Take UNLV. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other big College Winners: my Game of the Week (100% this year on our #1 Weekly play); my 3-game package including our SEC Game of the Month; and a play out of a super 18-0 System.
BIG AL'S EYE-POPPING 100% (18-0 ATS) TV WINNER.
At 10:15 pm, on FOX Sports Net, our selection is on the Washington Huskies over UCLA. Last week, Karl Dorrell's Bruins inexplicably lost 44-6 to Utah as a 15-point road favorite. A lot of gamblers will be on UCLA to bounce back from that loss, but teams rarely do when matched up against a conference opponent that is also off a loss. Consider that, since November 2, 1991, .230 (or better) road dogs off a SU loss are a perfect 18-0 ATS vs. conference foes who lost outright as a 14-point (or greater) favorite the previous week. With Washington checking in off a loss to Ohio State last week, we'll play on Tyrone Willingham's men as conference road dogs on Saturday night. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie. And don't miss my other big College Winners: my 3-game package including our SEC Game of the Month; a Conference Game of the Year out of a 15-0 System; and my #1 Game of the Week (3-0 this year on my Top Weekly Play).
KELSO
50* Pac Ten Goy - Washington
15* Florida Atlantic
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