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Volmania
09-29-2007, 08:05 PM
Postem here
Volmania
09-29-2007, 08:44 PM
Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest Picks
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Top-Five Consensus Selections
Week 4
1) Arizona +5.5 vs. Pittsburgh
2) Minnesota +1 vs. Green Bay
3) New England -7 at Cincinnati
4) Atlanta +3 vs. Houston
5) Green Bay -1 at Minnesota
1) ARIZONA (103 picked)
2) MINNESOTA (94 picked)
3T) ATLANTA (91 picked)
3T) New England (91 picked)
5) Green Bay (77 picked)
COMPUTER PLAYS
1:00 pm Cleveland Browns +4½
1:00 pm Detroit Lions +3
1:00 pm Green Bay Packers -2
1:00 pm Atlanta Falcons +3
1:00 pm Buffalo Bills +3½
1:00 pm Oakland Raiders +4
1:00 pm Dallas Cowboys -13
4:05 pm Seattle Seahawks -2
4:05 pm Carolina Panthers -3
4:15 pm San Diego Chargers -12
4:15 pm Pittsburgh Steelers -6
8:15 pm Philadelphia Eagles -3
BEST BET
* * * 4:15 pm Indianapolis Colts -9½ * * *
Ben Burns
#1 Non-Conference Game of the Week *21-11 L32
Arizona (+4 or better)
Total of Week **EARLY**
Miami/Oakland UNDER (40 or better)
Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR (18-5!)
San Francisco
3-Game EXECUTIVE Report *EARLY KICK-OFF
Philly/NYG UNDER
KC/SD UNDER (37 or better)
Atlanta
Brandon Lang
30 DIME
DALLAS COWBOYS
20 DIME
San Francisco 49ers
15 DIME 6-POINT TEASER
Colts and Under
10 DIME
Cleveland Browns
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals
5 DIME
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
Hilton Contest Top 5
1. Az
2. Minn
3. NE
4. GB
5. Hou
Red Sheet
88: atlanta 20 - houston 16
87s: dallas, philly, new england
Poinwise
Rating 2:
Dallas over St Louis ( 31 - 13 )
Rating 3:
Pittsburgh over Arizona (26 - 13 )
Rating 4s:
New England over Cincinnati ( 38 - 27 )
Philly over Giants ( 30 - 20 )
Rating 5:
Tampa over Carolina ( 24 - 17 )
Gator
NFL "Tech" Report:
NFL (Sunday): Indianapolis is 7-21 ATS at home after gaining 99 or less yards rushing in two straight games since 1992. PLAY: Denver +9.5
Joey Gaffney
Dallas Cowboys 10* GOY 13
Green Bay Packers 7* PP 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7* PP 4
Oakland Raiders 7* PP 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 7* PP 7
Game Units Line
San Diego Chargers-Kansas City Chiefs ** UNDER ** 7* PP 40
Valley Sports 7-0 last week for about 25 units
5* TB +3
4* AZ +6
3* CLEV+4'
3* DEN +9'
3* STL o45'
3* NYG u48
2* SEA -2
MTI's KillerSports Newsletter
5* Denver +9.5 over Indy
4* Chicago / Detroit OVER 44
4* Teaser: Pitt +4.5, Denver +19.5, Baltimore +5.5
NFL System: Play Oakland
Wild Bill
Oakland +4 (1 unit)
Over 38 1/2 Atlanta-Houston (1 unit)
Browns +4 1/2 (1 unit)
Detroit +3 1/2 (1 unit)
Green Bay -1 1/2 (3 units)
Over 45 1/2 Dallas-St Louis (2 units)
Buffalo +3 1/2 (1 unit)
Carolina -2 1/2 (1 unit)
Arizona +6 1/2 (1 unit)
Chiefs +11 1/2 (1 unit)
Eagles -2 1/2 (5 units)
Patriots -6 1/2 (2 units)
Chuck Luck
Minn +1.5
Sea -2
Oak +4.5
Rams +12.5
Den +9.5
Phil -3
Chuck E Cheese
10 point teaser
Dallas -3
Colts -1
Chargers -1.5
7 point teaser
Steelers +1.5
Pats PK
Marc Lawrence
PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB
9/30/07 - NFL GOING DOWN
PLAY AGAINST any 3-0 ATS NFL team in Game Four of the season if they
won their first game of the season by 15 > points and are facing an
opponent that scored > 10 points in its previous game.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 0-12
Play Against: Pittsburgh and New England
Rationale: NFL teams who open the year 3-0 ATS are quite popular
with the odds maker and the betting public. If they won their opening
game of the season in overwhelming fashion their following grows.
Put them up against a formidable opponent and they dissapoint, going
just 2-10 SU in this role as well.
Victor King
King Creole Sports
"TOTALS" TIPSHEET
3* Rams @ Cowboys Play over The Total
2* Texan's @ Falcons Play over The Total
2* Raiders @ Dolphins Play over The Total
Purelock
5* Carolina Panthers
NORM HITZGES NFL PLAYS
Regular season: NFL: 17-13
NFL
Double Play--SD - vs KC
Double Play--Arizona + vs Pittsburgh
Detroit + vs Chicago
Miami - vs Oakland
Cleveland + vs Baltimore
Minnesota + vs Green Bay
Dallas - vs St. Louis
San Diego/KC Under
Arizona/Pittsburgh Over
New England - vs Cincinnati
New England/Cincinnati Over
MARC LAWRENCE NFL PAID for PICKS 4* Arizona +6
3* Atlanta +3
3* Minnesota +1.5
3* Cincinnati +7.5
Ace-Ace / Allan Eastman +57.55u ytd nfl
2100. OAKLAND RAIDERS +4 1/2
2000. K.C./SAN DIEGO UNDER 39
800. N.Y.JETS -3 1/2
500. HOUSTON TEXANS -3
400. PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6
3TEAM TEASER
300. K.C. +21.5 & OAK +14.5 & K.C. UNDER 49
Dr.Boob
Minnesota Vikings : Strong Opinion at +1 or more , 2-Star Best Bet +3 or more (at -115 odds or better).
Atlanta Falcons : Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
San Francisco 49rs : Strong Opinion if the line goes to +3 points (at -115 odds or better).
Kansas City Chiefs : Strong Opinion at +11 points or more
ROBERT FERRINGO
4.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.5 Philadelphia at New York Giants (8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1)
I think this is a natural overreaction to the Eagles’ eruption last week. We do have two weak secondaries here but we also have two pretty hard-nosed football teams. The Giants are 1-6 against a total of 47.0 or higher in the Tom Coughlin era while the Eagles are 0-6 against the total in the same area under Andy Reid. The ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in New York, 4-1 in Philly’s last five divisional games, and 8-3-1 in New York’s last 12 home games (4-1-1 as a home dog). As we saw with both Cincinnati and Cleveland last week: it’s tough to go on the road after putting up amazing offensive numbers and find the same rhythm.
3-Unit Play. Take #206 Miami (-4) over Oakland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
Oakland is 21-46-1 ATS in its last 68 games and 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams. The favorite has covered six of eight in this series and I think that Daunte Culpepper’s turnover-prone ways will have a negative impact on this team. The Raiders do not travel well, especially to the East Coast, and they’re facing a prideful, veteran Miami club that’s desperate for something positive. Cam Cameron is used to game planning for Oakland with San Diego and I think he gets his first “W” as a head coach this weekend.
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 39.0 Kansas City at San Diego (4 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1)
Much like the Green Bay-Minnesota game, we have two very strong defenses and at least one pop-gun offense. Neither team has been able to run the ball effectively and neither has any wideouts that scare you. This is a divisional game, meaning both clubs are familiar with one another, and I think both of these conservative coaches will be looking to establish the run and play the field position game.
2.5 Unit Play. Take #217 New York Jets (-3.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
The Bills are certainly a live dog this weekend, but we’re going to go by the book here and take the healthier, better-coached team. Buffalo is simply out of warm bodies on defense and they are starting a rookie quarterback. The Jets are 9-0 ATS after a loss against the number, 5-1 ATS on the road, and 4-0-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Finally, teams coming off back-to-back games scoring less than nine points (Buffalo), playing a team that’s given up 40 or more combined points in its previous two games (NY), are 6-14 ATS over the past 10 years.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #212 Detroit (+3) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
Finally, our long national nightmare is over: Rex Grossman has been benched in favor of Brian Griese. That’s great news for Bears fans and it should give the offense a boost. The trouble is, Chicago’s defense and offensive line is undergoing forced attrition and could be without two starters in the already depleted secondary this week. Detroit has won three of the last five meetings in this series at home and seven of the last at in Detroit have been decided by six points or less. Also, home dogs that surrendered 40+ points the previous week have covered the spread at a 64.8-percent clip over the past 21 years.
2-Unit Play. Take #208 Atlanta (+3) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
The Falcons have been playing a bit better than their record would indicate and I think they get their first “W” this weekend. Houston is in a prime letdown spot after their tightly contested game against Indianapolis last week. Teams instilled as road favorites the week after facing the Colts are just 16-24 ATS. Also, the Texans have never been posted as this high of a road favorite. We have a reverse line movement and I think the Falcons win this one outright over a team that will still be without its top two wide receivers.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 40.0 Baltimore at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
An average of just 31.4 points has been scored in the last seven meetings in Cleveland, with the last four staying ‘under’ the total. The ‘under’ is 5-3 in the last eight meetings overall. Also, Cleveland is 3-8 against a total between 38.5 and 40.5 and the Ravens are 2-4 vs. this range on the road. Cleveland could be without Kellen Winslow this week, and I don’t see Jamal Lewis fooling his old team with those old legs. The Browns have been sailing ‘over’ lately, but Baltimore is 8-18-2 against the total on the road (2-7-1 as road chalk) and 7-16-4 against the AFC. We’re above some key numbers and I expect a rather sloppy, controlled game out of these teams.
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take ‘Over’ 30.0 New York Jets at Buffalo (1 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1) AND Take ‘Under’ 38.0 Green Bay at Minnesota (1 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1)
The ‘over’ is 5-0 in the last five overall meetings and 6-0-1 in the last seven in Buffalo. The Jets have been an ‘over’ machine, sailing the total in 10 of their last 12 divisional games and in 13 of their past 18 conference games. I think the Bills are going to pull out all the stops this weekend, throwing the ball down the field to Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish, and I think after two straight poor offensive performances against two of the better defenses in the league the Bills will bust out with a 17-23 point outburst. Don’t be nervous if this one starts out slowly – once the floodgates open points will be coming fast and furious.
With Green Bay-Minnesota, I think we have two of the top five defenses in the league right now and on Minnesota’s side a very unstable quarterback situation. The Vikings have seen an average of just 29 points in their first three games and the ‘under’ is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings. I think points are going to be tough to come by and that Minnesota will control both lines of scrimmage. If we can avoid any special teams or defensive scores I don’t think the defenses will surrender more than six touchdowns.
Wayne Root
Chairman - Browns
Millionaire - Falcons
Money Maker - Giants
Nl - Vikings
Insider - Panthers
Perfect - Lions
Big Al
Championship - Browns
Blue Chip - Texans
Linemover - Dolphins
10 Dimes - Bills
Offshore Steam - Chargers
Computer Boys - Lions
spreitzer--
tko.....................lad
5star hammer..................mia
5star total........................pitt over 41
tko oddsmaker blowout gom.........ariz
tko rd warrior gom.....................den
tko..............................det
ko............................giants,atl
insider.............................minn
special release....................oak under 41
feist
personal best.................nyy over 11
platinum......................atl over 10.5
serial game......................nyg
island source....................ariz
persoal best....................sf
inner circle.....................tb,denv
inter conf goy................atl
teaser...............sd and dall
css sports
atl
clev
chic
gb
SEBASTIAN
Arizona 100*
SF 10*
Minn 20*
Clev 20*
KC 20*
Under Teaser 20* Oak-Mia and KC - SD
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:52 AM
Robert Ferrringo
4.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.5 Philadelphia at New York Giants
I think this is a natural overreaction to the Eagles’ eruption last week. We do have two weak secondaries here but we also have two pretty hard-nosed football teams. The Giants are 1-6 against a total of 47.0 or higher in the Tom Coughlin era while the Eagles are 0-6 against the total in the same area under Andy Reid. The ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in New York, 4-1 in Philly’s last five divisional games, and 8-3-1 in New York’s last 12 home games (4-1-1 as a home dog). As we saw with both Cincinnati and Cleveland last week: it’s tough to go on the road after putting up amazing offensive numbers and find the same rhythm.
3-Unit Play. Take #206 Miami (-4) over Oakland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
Oakland is 21-46-1 ATS in its last 68 games and 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams. The favorite has covered six of eight in this series and I think that Daunte Culpepper’s turnover-prone ways will have a negative impact on this team. The Raiders do not travel well, especially to the East Coast, and they’re facing a prideful, veteran Miami club that’s desperate for something positive. Cam Cameron is used to game planning for Oakland with San Diego and I think he gets his first “W” as a head coach this weekend.
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 39.0 Kansas City at San Diego (4 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1)
Much like the Green Bay-Minnesota game, we have two very strong defenses and at least one pop-gun offense. Neither team has been able to run the ball effectively and neither has any wideouts that scare you. This is a divisional game, meaning both clubs are familiar with one another, and I think both of these conservative coaches will be looking to establish the run and play the field position game.
2.5 Unit Play. Take #217 New York Jets (-3.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
The Bills are certainly a live dog this weekend, but we’re going to go by the book here and take the healthier, better-coached team. Buffalo is simply out of warm bodies on defense and they are starting a rookie quarterback. The Jets are 9-0 ATS after a loss against the number, 5-1 ATS on the road, and 4-0-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Finally, teams coming off back-to-back games scoring less than nine points (Buffalo), playing a team that’s given up 40 or more combined points in its previous two games (NY), are 6-14 ATS over the past 10 years.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #212 Detroit (+3) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
Finally, our long national nightmare is over: Rex Grossman has been benched in favor of Brian Griese. That’s great news for Bears fans and it should give the offense a boost. The trouble is, Chicago’s defense and offensive line is undergoing forced attrition and could be without two starters in the already depleted secondary this week. Detroit has won three of the last five meetings in this series at home and seven of the last at in Detroit have been decided by six points or less. Also, home dogs that surrendered 40+ points the previous week have covered the spread at a 64.8-percent clip over the past 21 years.
2-Unit Play. Take #208 Atlanta (+3) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
The Falcons have been playing a bit better than their record would indicate and I think they get their first “W” this weekend. Houston is in a prime letdown spot after their tightly contested game against Indianapolis last week. Teams instilled as road favorites the week after facing the Colts are just 16-24 ATS. Also, the Texans have never been posted as this high of a road favorite. We have a reverse line movement and I think the Falcons win this one outright over a team that will still be without its top two wide receivers.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 40.0 Baltimore at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
An average of just 31.4 points has been scored in the last seven meetings in Cleveland, with the last four staying ‘under’ the total. The ‘under’ is 5-3 in the last eight meetings overall. Also, Cleveland is 3-8 against a total between 38.5 and 40.5 and the Ravens are 2-4 vs. this range on the road. Cleveland could be without Kellen Winslow this week, and I don’t see Jamal Lewis fooling his old team with those old legs. The Browns have been sailing ‘over’ lately, but Baltimore is 8-18-2 against the total on the road (2-7-1 as road chalk) and 7-16-4 against the AFC. We’re above some key numbers and I expect a rather sloppy, controlled game out of these teams.
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take ‘Over’ 30.0 New York Jets at Buffalo (1 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1) AND Take ‘Under’ 38.0 Green Bay at Minnesota (1 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1)
The ‘over’ is 5-0 in the last five overall meetings and 6-0-1 in the last seven in Buffalo. The Jets have been an ‘over’ machine, sailing the total in 10 of their last 12 divisional games and in 13 of their past 18 conference games. I think the Bills are going to pull out all the stops this weekend, throwing the ball down the field to Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish, and I think after two straight poor offensive performances against two of the better defenses in the league the Bills will bust out with a 17-23 point outburst. Don’t be nervous if this one starts out slowly – once the floodgates open points will be coming fast and furious.
With Green Bay-Minnesota, I think we have two of the top five defenses in the league right now and on Minnesota’s side a very unstable quarterback situation. The Vikings have seen an average of just 29 points in their first three games and the ‘under’ is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings. I think points are going to be tough to come by and that Minnesota will control both lines of scrimmage. If we can avoid any special teams or defensive scores I don’t think the defenses will surrender more than six touchdowns
BIG AL's NFL RIVALRY SUPERPLAY (1 PM KICKOFF)
Vikings
BIG AL's NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH.
Cardinals
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:53 AM
Scott Rickenbach
1* (regular play) St Louis Rams (+) @ Dallas @ 1:00 ET -
The Rams are 0-3 on the season plus they have yet to cover a game. The Cowboys are 3-0 on the season and they have earned the cash in every single season game! No one wants the Rams here and that has been proven throughout the week as the money pours in on the Cowboys and the line continues to rise! We'll gladly grab the extra line value here and we'll tell you not to be surprised if the Rams do pull off the upset here. This is the perfect spot for the Cowboys to be flat and it's also the perfect spot for big dog St Louis to show they're better than what they've shown this season.
We are well aware of the issues that the Rams have had along their offensive line. That is an area of concern for St Louis right now but they are working hard to get use to life without some injured starters and they will improve with each week from here on out. The Rams offensive line is fully focused here after a great week of practice and look for the Cowboys defense to continue to struggle. Keep in mind that Rex Grossman and the Bears can make any defense look good! Dallas is certainly not "fired up" about this game as they have already had three big tests. They started off their season with a divisional win over the Giants, then took their first road trip to Miami and got another win. The Cowboys followed that up with a big road win at Chicago on Sunday night last week.
The Cowboys are still celebrating their first win in the underdog role and they also are still licking some wounds off of some very physical ballgames to begin their season. Dallas clearly does not see the Rams as a threat and that makes St Louis a very dangerous dog here. Keep in mind that the Rams have actually defended the pass quite well so far this season and the Cowboys will be content to just run the ball and try to simply notch a win and then move onto their next game which just happens to be another primetime affair with a Monday nighter on deck for Dallas. The Cowboys are definitely in a sandwich spot here and the Rams can take advantage.
The Rams get a key player back on defense this week with LB Pisa Tinoisamoa returning. On offense RB Steven Jackson will miss this game but RB Brian Leonard is more than ready to make a big statement in this game. In fact, the entire St Louis team is relishing this opportunity to take on "America's Team" in the role of a double digit underdog. With no one giving them a chance this is one of those games where the Rams could end up playing the role of underdog shocker! Rams coach Scott Linehan has openly discussed the fact that this has been a season of missed opportunities so far. He also feels the team has made improvement that all the hard work will eventually start leading to some wins. The Rams attitude is very positive here despite their 0-3 start. While the Rams may not get the outright win in Dallas their attitude is exactly what you want to see from a hungry double digit dog heading into a match-up with an overconfident big favorite. The Rams surpise many today, but not us! Play St Louis plus the points as a regular selection.
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Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:53 AM
Matt Rivers Free Play
For Sunday take the Vikings at home.
Backing a home dog is never a terrible thing in the NFL and despite not exactly having a quality offense I will take my chances on the Vikings. Kelly Holcomb is an old pro who has been there and done that and should be alright at home. I don't expect the guy to outperform Brett Favre but it'll be the underrated and very quality Minnesota which wins this game.
Green Bay's achilles heel is their running game and Minnesota is the best run defense in the entire league. Put that together and you are going to watch Mike McCarthy's team have no choice but to abandon the run which will leave the Vikings defense licking their chops and pounding Favre play after play.
Minnesota at home is always a stout team no matter how good or bad they are. They have a phenomenal faithful backing and with the horn blasting in the dome will create a mess for the Packers offense. Green Bay does have a solid defense and are deserving of their 3-0 mark but on the road in this spot they are not going to continue the run.
Favre may throw that one touchdown and get the record but it will be in a loss!
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Cappers Access
Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick
(Sun) NFL Texans Falcons 3 Falcons
(Sun) NFL Jets Bills 3- Bills
(Sun) NFL Steelers Cardinals 6 Cardinals
(Sun) NFL Eagles Giants 3 Giants
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:53 AM
Valley Sports 7-0 last week for about 25 units
5* TB +3
4* AZ +6
3* CLEV+4'
3* DEN +9'
3* STL o45'
3* NYG u48
2* SEA -2
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:54 AM
Purelock
5* Carolina Panthers
Trey Johnson
Mismatch of the year
#223 Pittsburgh (-) over Arizona at 4:15 PM EST
The Steelers will be going for their first 4-0 start in 28 years when they visit Arizona on Sunday. The Steelers have been impressive under first year head coach Mike Tomlin outscoring their first three opponents by a combined 97-26. They are third in the NFL in scoring with 32.3 points per game and first in rushing yards with 595 and points allowed at 8.6 per game. They are also second in the league in sacks with 12. Against NFC teams the Steelers have dominated winning 13 of their last 14 including a Super Bowl victory over Seattle. Pittsburgh is simply too much for Arizona to handle. Play the Steelers as they roll through Arizona with ease.
Play Pittsburgh (-)
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:54 AM
VICTOR KING'S NFL O/U PAID for PICKS CONFIRMED
These Come From His "TOTALS" TIPSHEET
3* Rams @ Cowboys Play over The Total
2* Texan's @ Falcons Play over The Total
2* Raiders @ Dolphins Play over The Total
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:54 AM
chuck e cheese -12.95 units ytd for 2007-2008 football
10 point teaser
Dallas-3
Colts-1
Chargers-1.5
7 point teaser
Steelers+1.5
Pats-PK
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:54 AM
Gator Report (free)
NFL (Sunday): Indianapolis is 7-21 ATS at home after gaining 99 or less yards rushing in two straight games since 1992. PLAY: Denver +9.5
RIGHTSIDE SPORTS
Documented 18-5 in the NFL @ TSM
10* #209 Baltimore -4
10* #208 Atlanta +3
10* #212 Detroit +3
10* #214 Minnesota +2
10* #220 Carolina -2'
10* #223 Pittsburgh -5'
10* #230 New York Giants +3
10* #232 Cincinnati +7'
10* Arizona OVER 41'
10* San Diego OVER 38'
10* Detroit OVER 44'
10* New York Giants OVER 47'
10* Buffalo OVER 37
10* San Francisco OVER 40'
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:56 AM
Dr. Bob DALLAS (-12.5) 28 St. Louis 14
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Rams’ offensive line is horrible and that has caused problems with both the rushing attack (3.6 ypr) and the passing attack (5.2 yards per pass play) and I just don’t see them keeping up with a potent Dallas attack that has averaged 6.9 yards per play and just ripped up the Bears’ stout defense on Monday night. My ratings favor Dallas by 14 points in this game and using only games from this season would result in a projection of Dallas by 21 points. The Cowboys apply to a negative 45-108 ATS statistical profile indicator but I just can’t back the Rams.
MINNESOTA 17 Green Bay (-1.5) 13
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Packers have started the season at 3-0, but they’ve only out-gained their opponents 5.2 yards per play to 5.1 yppl in those 3 games. All 3 teams that the Packers have beaten are 1-2 on the season, but I do rate their schedule as considerably tougher than average given that Philadelphia and San Diego are presumably better than their records. I do rate Green Bay as a solidly better than average team because their young defense has gone from promising to very good this season, but the offense is actually just barely better than average thanks to the absence of a rushing attack (just 58 yards per game at 3.1 ypr). Brett Favre has played well in the Packers’ last two games, but he’s averaging a mediocre 6.2 yards per pass play for the season and I rate Favre at only 0.3 yppp better than average after compensating for opposing pass defenses. Favre and company will have trouble scoring in this game against a dominating Vikings defense that’s allowed just 4.5 yppl. Minnesota’s offense is 0.4 yppl worse than average with Kelly Holcomb at quarterback (based on his lifetime yppp numbers) but I rate the Vikings as a bit better than average overall thanks to their strong defense and better than average special teams. My ratings favor Minnesota by 1 point in this game and I like the Vikings even more thanks to a negative 20-63-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation that applies to Green Bay after last week’s upset home win. Minnesota, meanwhile, applies to a 107-44-3 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that the Vikings have the characteristics of a good home underdog. Unfortunately, Minnesota also applies to a negative 25-58-1 ATS week 4 angle. That week 4 angle is not nearly as strong as the angles favoring the Vikings, but its enough to keep me off Minnesota as a Best Bet at the current price. I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d take Minnesota in a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of +3 or more (at -115 odds or better).
Chicago (-2.5) 23 DETROIT 20
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Lovie Smith has finally made the decision to bench ineffective quarterback Rex Grossman for veteran Brian Griese, whose career 6.1 yards per pass play average and 3.4% interception rate is better than Grossman’s career averages of 5.8 yppp and 4.2% interceptions (4.3 yppp and 6.7% int this season). The Bears’ offense should go from horrible to just a little below average and their defense should bounce back from their bad outing last Monday night against an explosive Dallas attack. Detroit’s offense will certainly present a good challenge, as the Lions are averaging a robust 6.1 yards per play this season against 3 solid defensive teams (Oakland, Minnesota, and Philly). However, throwing the ball over 50 times per game has led to 2 interceptions thrown per contest for quarterback Jon Kitna and the Lions’ defense isn’t good enough to keep opponents from taking advantage of turnovers. In fact, the Lions’ defense has been horrible in allowing 6.4 yppl and that’s more than just a product of last week’s 9.5 yppl allowed to the Eagles. Detroit also gave up 5.1 yppl to the bad offensive units of Oakland and Minnesota, who would combine to average about 4.7 yppl against an average defensive team. My ratings favor Chicago by 6 points with Griese at the controls (would have favored the Bears by 3 points with Grossman), but the Bears apply to a negative 24-49-5 ATS week 4 situation. I’ll call for a 3 point Chicago victory.
ATLANTA 20 Houston (-2.5) 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Super Bowl champion Colts last week. Atlanta has started the season with 3 straight losses by an average score of 10-21. While is seems obvious to take Houston, you should note that Atlanta has only been out-gained by 9 total yards per game and 5.3 yards per play to 5.8 yppl, which is far from being horrible. Houston has gained and allowed 5.4 yppl but the Texans are a below average offensive team with star WR Andre Johnson out of action for a second straight week, as Matt Schaub simply has no other legitimate downfield targets. After averaging over 8 yards per pass play in each of the first two games with Johnson in the lineup the Texans averaged a mediocre 5.9 yppp last week against the Colts and Houston is now without top running back Ahman Green, who has averaged a solid 4.3 ypr. The rest of the running backs are all at 3.0 ypr or less, so the Texans offense isn’t looking very good in its current state. My ratings favor Houston by only 1 point in this game and Atlanta applies to a very good 83-38-3 ATS situation while Houston applies to a negative 123-184-18 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that the Texans have the characteristics of a bad road favorite. Unfortunately, the Falcons also apply to a negative 24-49-5 ATS game 4 situation but the technical analysis is still in favor of Atlanta overall. I like Atlanta plus the points and I’d consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Dr. Chad
11-1 on 5 unit plays
5 units The Browns
5 units Cardinals.(NFL)
POWER TRAIN 8-1 in Best Bets (6-0 CFB 2-1 NFL)
6* Atlanta
3* Chic-over Pitt-over
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:56 AM
Baltimore (-4.0) 23 CLEVELAND 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Baltimore 23 Cleveland 17 if no TE Winslow for Cleveland
The Browns are a pretty decent team with Derek Anderson at quarterback, which has made up for a bad defense. Anderson has averaged a healthy 7.2 yards per pass play on 100 pass plays this season and his lifetime average of 6.4 yppp (on 225 pass plays) is enough evidence to suggest that he could be the real deal – although his interception rate continues to be far too high (4 in 98 attempts this year). Cleveland’s defense is not good but the Ravens have been struggling offensively (just 5.0 yards per play) and quarterback Steve McNair is not 100% healthy (he’s had to be replaced in all 3 games this season by less effective backup Kyle Boller. My ratings favor Baltimore by 4 ½ points is McNair plays the entire game at his normal effectiveness, which isn’t likely. I’ll pass on this one, although I’d lean with Baltimore if Cleveland TE Kellen Winslow is downgraded from questionable to doubtful or out with his injured shoulder.
MIAMI (-4.0) 19 Oakland 18
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Oakland finally broke their long losing streak by blocking the game winning field goal against Cleveland last week and that win should have the Raiders emotionally up this week as they prepare for the Dolphins. In fact, the Raiders apply to a very good 40-11-1 ATS situation that is based on that victory while Miami applies to a negative 25-58-1 ATS week 4 angle. While the situational analysis is strongly in favor the Oakland the line value is not. Miami may be 0-3, but the Dolphins have gained 5.7 yards per play and allowed 5.2 yppl against a tougher than average schedule (Washington, Dallas and the Jets). Oakland, meanwhile, has been out-gained 5.4 yppl to 6.2 yppl by an average schedule (Detroit, Denver, and Cleveland). The Raiders have also been bad on special teams and my ratings favor Miami by 7 points in this game. Daunte Culpepper takes over at quarterback for the Raiders, but he’s averaged only 5.5 yards per pass play in 2-plus seasons without being able to throw to Randy Moss, so he’s not necessarily an upgrade over Josh McCown. The situations are strong enough to get me leaning with the Raiders plus the points.
NY Jets (-3.5) 23 BUFFALO 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Bills may have caught a break with the injury to starting quarterback J.P. Losman, as Losman had averaged a pathetic 3.5 yards per pass play in the first 2 games and one play (he was injured on his first pass attempt). Rookie backup Trent Edwards averaged only 4.2 yppp on his 21 pass play, but that’s not all that bad for being thrown into the game without first team reps in practice and facing a tough Patriots’ defense on the road. Buffalo has a pretty good rushing attack and the Jets’ pass defense is so bad (8.0 yppp allowed) that Edwards could have pretty decent success in his first start. The Bills defense isn’t good either, but the 6.8 yards per play that they allowed came against 3 good offensive teams in Denver, Pittsburgh, and New England that have averaged a combined 6.5 yppl on offense this season. My ratings favor New York by only 1 ½ points and I’ll lean with Buffalo plus the points.
CAROLINA (-3.0) 23 Tampa Bay 20
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
David Carr will get the start at quarterback for injured starter Jake Delhomme and that is a downgrade for the Panthers, as Carr has been a below average quarterback in all but one season during his 5 seasons as a starter in Houston. Carolina has a good rushing attack, so their offense is still about average even with Carr, but Tampa Bay has a solid defense (4.8 yards per play allowed). Tampa’s offense has been the story, however, as Jeff Garcia has averaged 8.3 yards per pass play without throwing an interception this season. Carolina has been a bit worse than average defensively through 3 games and my ratings make this game a pick. Sadly, I cannot take the points with the underrated Bucs because Tampa applies to a negative 47-92-4 ATS road letdown situation. I’ll pass on this one.
SAN FRANCISCO 21 Seattle (-2.0) 20
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The 49ers beat the Seahawks in both games last season and I’ll lean with them to do so again. I was actually a bit surprised that Seattle was favored in this game, as I still don’t consider them anything more than an average team. In fact, the Seahawks have averaged 5.8 yards per play this season and they’ve allowed 5.8 yppl to a schedule of average strength. San Francisco has been worse than average so far this season, producing just 4.2 yppl while allowing 5.3 yppl, but the Niners’ offense is surely better than what they’ve shown so far after being a slightly better than average attack in 2006. My ratings favor San Francisco by 1 point and I’d consider the 49ers a Strong Opinion if the line goes to +3 points (at -115 odds or better).
INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) 27 Denver 19
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Broncos barely beat bad teams Buffalo and Oakland and then were beaten 14-23 by a good Jacksonville team in Denver. What’s odd about Denver is that they’ve been out-scored 17.3 points to 19.0 points per game despite out-gaining their opponents 6.4 yards per play to 4.5 yppl. There has certainly been bad special teams play, but Denver should certainly be scoring more than they have been given how well they move the ball. The Colts look like a better overall team than last year’s Super Bowl champs, as their great offense (6.5 yppl) is being complimented by a good defensive unit that’s allowed just 4.7 yppl. My ratings favor Indy by 8 ½ points, so the line looks a bit too high.
SAN DIEGO (-11.5) 21 Kansas City 14
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
What is going on the with Chargers? Could it be the Norv Turner affect? Turner has a way of ruining teams when he takes over as a head coach, but I just don’t see how Turner is to blame for LaDainian Tomlinson averaging 2.3 ypr. Afterall, Turner helped put this offense together when he worked for the Chargers a few years ago and they’re running the same scheme that they ran so successfully last season. Quarterback Philip Rivers is having a sub-par year so far too, averaging just 5.8 yards per pass play (6.7 yppp last season). The San Diego defense is also not playing as well, as that unit has yielded 5.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. I do expect the Chargers to start playing better, but so do the oddsmakers given the line on this game. Kansas City is struggling offensively as expected (4.3 yppl, but against teams that would allow 4.8 yppl to an average team) but the Chiefs’ defense has given up just 4.5 yppl this season and is clearly better than average even after compensating for strength of opposing offenses faced. That defense should keep this game relatively close and my ratings favor San Diego by only 9 points - and the math would favor the Chargers by only 11 points if I used last year’s offensive and defensive numbers for San Diego. San Diego does apply to a negative 25-58-1 ATS week 4 situation and I’ll consider Kansas City a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more.
Northcoast
4* Falcons
3* Miami Seattle
Great Lakes Sports
5* green bay (-2)
4* denver (over 46)
4* dallas (-13)
3* arizona (+5.5)
3* tampa bay (under 39)
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:57 AM
Pittsburgh (-5.5) 23 ARIZONA 17
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Matt Leinart was horrible last week before getting relieved by veteran Kurt Warner, who brought the Cardinals back from a huge deficit to tie the game against the Ravens before losing on a late field goal. Leinart will be back as the starter this week and the Cardinals have a below average offense with the second year quarterback at the controls. Arizona’s defense has been pretty good (5.1 yppl allowed) but they’ll have a tough time stopping a Pittsburgh attack that has averaged 6.2 yppl this season and has rushed for 199 yards per game at 5.8 ypr. The Steelers’ first two games were against bad defensive teams Cleveland and Buffalo, but Pittsburgh racked up 6.5 yppl last week against a solid 49ers defense. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 4.3 yppl to 3 below average offensive teams (Cleveland with Frye at quarterback, Buffalo, and SF) but they’re an above average unit even after compensating for strength of opposing offenses faced. My ratings favor Pittsburgh by 6 points and there are situations going against each team.
Philadelphia (-2.5) 27 NY GIANTS 26
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Both of these teams got their first win last week and both teams will be fighting to avoid a 1-3 start. I rated the Eagles as the best team in the NFC heading into this season and I still think that is the case (only Dallas is even in the discussion). The Eagles busted out offensively last week and McNabb and company should enjoy more success tonight against a Giants defense that’s allowed 6.1 yards per play this season. New York has actually played at a decent level the last two weeks on defense after getting overwhelmed in Dallas in their opener, but I still rate New York’s stop unit as slightly worse than average. New York’s offense has looked very good, as the rushing attack has been effective (4.7 ypr) and Eli Manning is showing signs of being a better than average quarterback (6.1 yards per pass play against a tough trio of defensive teams). Philadelphia has a better than average defense and they should be able to contain Manning and company in this game. My ratings favor Philly by 5 ½ points in this game, but New York applies to a solid 84-42-4 ATS momentum situation and that angle will get me leaning with the Giants.
New England (-7.5) 28 CINCINNATI 19
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-01 - Stats Matchup
It seems pretty obvious that New England’s unbelievably good offense (6.8 yards per play and 38 points in all 3 games) will score at will against a soft Cincy defense that’s allowed 6.4 yppl and 32 points per game. However, Cincinnati’s numbers have been skewed by one really bad game against Cleveland (9.0 yppl) and the Bengals actually allowed just 5.1 yppl combined in games against Baltimore and Seattle, so their defense really isn’t as bad as their season to date numbers would suggest. Cincinnati’s offense is once again one of the league’s best units, but the Patriots are playing great defense this season and have allowed just 3.9 yppl (although to teams that have combine to average just 4.3 yppl combined this season), so they ought to slow down the Bengals attack and win this game rather handily. My ratings favor New England by 9 points and using this year’s stats only would in a projection of Pats by 14 points. New England has won and covered all 3 of their games so far but teams that are 3-0 SU and ATS are only 13-23-2 ATS on the road in game 4, including 6-18-1 ATS in non-divisional games. I doubt that the Patriots will suffer a letdown but they’re unlikely to keep playing as well as they have. My ratings are based on realistic levels of play for the Patriots and I’ll call for a 9 point win.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:57 AM
Jimmy Price Teaser of the decade
10 point teaser Cowboys, Colts, Chargers
Nick Parsons
NFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR
CHICAGO BEARS -3
The Rex Grossman era is over. Good news for Bears fans! In steps Brian Griese. Grossman has been horrible for a long time now, that's not news to anyone. The Bears defense was unable to bail Grossman out last week and the Bears got buried at home to the visiting Dallas Cowboys, 34-10. The Bears do not need a 'super-star' QB to win games though, they simply need a pivot who can move the ball down the field a few times and limit turnovers. Almost any other QB in the league could step in and do a better job than Grossman. Griese has played all over the league, and is at least halfway competent and will be able to utilize the Bears offensive weapons in an efficient manner. The Lions started the year off with a convincing road win over Oakland and followed that up with an ugly OT win over the Vikes at home; last weekend however they got buried in Philadelphia, 56-21, to show that against a good defense, these are still the Lions of old, no matter how much better their offense has become. Although they have some injuries to their defense, I look for the Bears to do just enough to keep the Lions offense in check and look for Griese to carve up one of the worst-ranked defenses in the league; my NFC North Game of the Year is on the BEARS!
The Vegas Beard
3* Falcons
3* Browns
3* Rams
3* Bills
Wolkosky Milan
138-90-5 last fourty three days!!!
5-2 Yesterday!
Today:
10* CARDINALS +6
10* FALCONS +3
10* LIONS +3
10* EAGLES -2½
10* SEAHAWKS -2
10* TB/CAR UNDER 39½
10* NYJ/BUF OVER 37
Free: PACKERS -1
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:58 AM
POWER TRAIN 8-1 in Best Bets (6-0 CFB 2-1 NFL)
6* Atlanta
3* Chic-over Pitt-over
Kodiak
5units:
Detroit +3
Minnesota +2
Atlanta +3
TB +3
KC over 38
TB under 40
Browns under 40
3unit:
Phili -3
Denver +10
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:58 AM
LT Lock
Vikings
streak is 0-3
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:58 AM
Pointwise Phone Plays
3 Phil
3 Jets
3 NE
3 Dallas
3 Atla
2 Clev
Bluemyboy
09-30-2007, 07:59 AM
anyone want anything specific...let me know.
Jim Kruger
3 Units Cowboys Under 47
3 Units Busc +3
3 Units Broncos Under 47
PPP
5* Pittsburgh
5* Miami Under
3* Carolina
3* Minnesota
3*Arizona Over
3*Tampa Under
Ats Lock Club
Detroit +3.......................8 Units
Over 41 1/2 Pitt/Arz........7 Units
Chargers -11 1/2..............6 Units
Thes are the rest of the plays they sold yesterday.
These are the plays they sold today
ATS Lock Club
7 units on the Baltimore Ravens (-4) over the Cleveland Browns, 1:00
6 units on the OVER 45 1/2 Denver Broncos/Indianapolis Colts, 4:00
5 units on the Seattle Seahawks (-1 1/2) over the San Francisco 49'ers, 4:00
5 units on the Dallas Cowboys (-13) over the St Louis Rams, 1:00
RON MEYER (LAST WEEK...5-0-1)
100* Miami
Cokin
Top Play Seat Nyg Atl
Reg Ariz
Players of America
3* Vikings
1* Falcons
1* Bills
Lt Profits
3 Denver
2 Clev Nyg
Inside Steam
3 Dall Pitt
Lenny Stevens
20 Minn Phily Und
10 Atl Miami Ariz
Gameday
3 Sd
2 Det Ariz
The Real Animal
4.5* Atlanta Falcons
Volmania
09-30-2007, 08:40 AM
DR BOB
I worked all night looking for something worth betting this week in the NFL, but couldn't find anything good enough. So, I have no Best Bets for week 4 and only 2 Strong Opinions. The math model kicks in starting next week so I'll start to have more Best Bets, as the math model is 60% the last 7 years when a game has a math prediction that is 5 points or more from the pointspread and that gives me something other than just situational analysis to look at. There will still be plenty of action this week, as I have 8 College Best Bets.
Strong Opinion
MINNESOTA 17 Green Bay (-2) 13
The Packers have started the season at 3-0, but they’ve only out-gained their opponents 5.2 yards per play to 5.1 yppl in those 3 games. All 3 teams that the Packers have beaten are 1-2 on the season, but I do rate their schedule as considerably tougher than average given that Philadelphia and San Diego are presumably better than their records. I do rate Green Bay as a solidly better than average team because their young defense has gone from promising to very good this season, but the offense is actually just barely better than average thanks to the absence of a rushing attack (just 58 yards per game at 3.1 ypr). Brett Favre has played well in the Packers’ last two games, but he’s averaging a mediocre 6.2 yards per pass play for the season and I rate Favre at only 0.3 yppp better than average after compensating for opposing pass defenses. Favre and company will have trouble scoring in this game against a dominating Vikings defense that’s allowed just 4.5 yppl. Minnesota’s offense is 0.4 yppl worse than average with Kelly Holcomb at quarterback (based on his lifetime yppp numbers) but I rate the Vikings as a bit better than average overall thanks to their strong defense and better than average special teams. My ratings favor Minnesota by 1 point in this game and I like the Vikings even more thanks to a negative 20-63-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation that applies to Green Bay after last week’s upset home win. Minnesota, meanwhile, applies to a 107-44-3 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that the Vikings have the characteristics of a good home underdog. Unfortunately, Minnesota also applies to a negative 25-58-1 ATS week 4 angle. That week 4 angle is not nearly as strong as the angles favoring the Vikings, but its enough to keep me off Minnesota as a Best Bet at the current price. I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d take Minnesota in a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of +3 or more (at -115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion
Kansas City 14 SAN DIEGO (-12) 21
What is going on the with Chargers? Could it be the Norv Turner affect? Turner has a way of ruining teams when he takes over as a head coach, but I just don’t see how Turner is to blame for LaDainian Tomlinson averaging 2.3 ypr. Afterall, Turner helped put this offense together when he worked for the Chargers a few years ago and they’re running the same scheme that they ran so successfully last season. Quarterback Philip Rivers is having a sub-par year so far too, averaging just 5.8 yards per pass play (6.7 yppp last season). The San Diego defense is also not playing as well, as that unit has yielded 5.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. I do expect the Chargers to start playing better, but so do the oddsmakers given the line on this game. Kansas City is struggling offensively as expected (4.3 yppl, but against teams that would allow 4.8 yppl to an average team) but the Chiefs’ defense has given up just 4.5 yppl this season and is clearly better than average even after compensating for strength of opposing offenses faced. That defense should keep this game relatively close and my ratings favor San Diego by only 9 points - and the math would favor the Chargers by only 11 points if I used last year’s offensive and defensive numbers for San Diego. San Diego does apply to a negative 25-58-1 ATS week 4 situation and I’ll consider Kansas City a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more.
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